The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
What was your two today matey? Just the one that fired for me, 14:35 at Kelso which was a lovely little winner
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I had a few good wins on some of the backing strategies today, haven't got back to the bot to check which strategy they came from!
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
Just need back the fav to start producing now, been poor for a good few weeks.
Have made up everything i lost from those 2 terrible days at the end of January on the short odds lays, long may this continue and hope the profit rolls on now. -
2/2 for me today.
Looking forward to Adam’s addition re odds differences between horses ala Little Acorms. Should give us more angles to trade backing and laying.
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@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
0_1676290841246_Pace Backs New.json
A new version of the pace backs taking into account what another user suggested. The thing i really like about the equity curve on this is there is a clear pattern. The equity curve is similar in both years, for example shows good growth over the summer but in both years October and November are flat.
Really interested in these. Let’s hope they start like a rocket in March as is suggested
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6.5 points in two days, flying this month John
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It’s nice to get the positive variance. I like these because of the low liability. Just have to suck up the losing cycles.
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@john-folan a couple of good days in a row for me, long may it continue
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Cracking day
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0_1676290841246_Pace Backs New.json
A new version of the pace backs taking into account what another user suggested. The thing i really like about the equity curve on this is there is a clear pattern. The equity curve is similar in both years, for example shows good growth over the summer but in both years October and November are flat.
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@chris-osborne
Its working for me now. Just had about 10 mins where fairbot wasnt connecting and the website wouldnt load at all.
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@jonathan-jones Fine for me on both website and Fairbot
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Is betfair dead?
Cant log on either fairbot or the website. -
@adam
Things have improved massively and its still improving.
As i said its only a couple of the strategies that have this issue, Others are fine.And, i have Offered solutions to get over that limitation AND have commented on the fact they do make the results more reliable.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@jonathan-jones interesting jonathan, keep us posted with results as i for one would be interested. Yes lay the beaten fav is struggyling of late, but not sure why. And yes the backtesting is impressive but in the live enviromentment over the last 2 months its not
All I can suggest is that you make sure you're testing what you think you are. The backtesting is telling you what actually happened, it's not trying to make any "impressive" predictions.
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@joshua-varley said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
to
Yes it would. It would reduce the inconsistency but not eliminate it entirely.
But,
If you test that in the backtester entering at 10 seconds with the favourite conditions reduces profitability to 389 while removing the criteria and still entering 10 mins before start only reduces it to 429 (and, by moving the time you are only reducing the inconsistency, not eliminating it).Lay the beaten fav also has this problem. There are loads of other criteria you cant use either because of this.
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@jonathan-jones interesting jonathan, keep us posted with results as i for one would be interested. Yes lay the beaten fav is struggyling of late, but not sure why. And yes the backtesting is impressive but in the live enviromentment over the last 2 months its not
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@jonathan-jones said:
to see how misleading the software actually is
@jonathan-jones said:
Its results are not replicated in real trading.
@jonathan-jones said:
In reality you will bleed money while the software happlily tells you that you are making a profit.
@jonathan-jones said:
live trading should be a total match to the backtest.
@jonathan-jones said:
those results are a fiction
@jonathan-jones said:
I would rather something i can trust
We've been over this many, many times. The only "favourite" rule we have right now is BSP favourite. BSP is mentioned in the dropdown hint. BSP is mentioned in the help dialogue when you click the rule icon. BSP has been mentioned a thousand times whenever you've had a dig about it on this forum.
We are not trying to mislead anyone and this is not an indication that the software is unreliable. Something being missing from the software does not indicate that the data that IS present is wrong. You are comparing apples with oranges. If you want to know the exact favourite at some other timestamp other than when BSP is calculated, this is one of the few things the backtesting cannot do right now. Some people may be happy with an approximation in the last few minutes before the race, others may not be and may prefer to leave the rule out for now. Either one of those is fine.
Please learn the difference between "the software is wrong" and "there's a cool feature that's not in the software yet".
Are you going to add a better "Favourite" rule?
Yes. It is the main big update we are working on for the horse racing software. We are also doing the same update for all other stats that change over time during the lifetime of the market, for example traded amounts, going, number of runners, etc etc (there are about 20 different stats for which we're developing this feature). And obviously we will apply it to the other new software we're developing like the new version of the football software, etc.What's taking so long?
Right now, taking favourite as an example, we store 1 value: The BSP. We calculate the favourite based on the selection with the lowest value. Going forward, we need to (potentially) store a value every time a price snapshot is taken (once per second pre-race, once every 500ms in running). We need to do this for numerous metrics. We also need to re-write the strategy query logic to allow it to pick out the favourite value for any specific timestamp along that timeline. None of this is trivial. We need to think about the size of the data and the performance of the queries.Why didn't you put it in from day one?
Honestly? We just didn't think of it. We developed the framework for backtesting various values, of which the vast majority are fairly static (race type, course, etc). Then we went through all the data we were scraping and identified other values we thought would be interesting (going, traded volumes, etc etc) and applied the same logic. It was only when this was requested that we saw the difference, and the benefit of enhancing those stats, and began working on it. I guess you can add this to the list of 200+ other requests and great suggestions that have already made it into the software.Why didn't you psychically tap into my brain before I signed up and add everything I personally want to the software in advance?
My crystal ball was on the blink that day. I wholeheartedly apologise. If some feature is not in the software right now and you consider it a deal-breaker, please feel free to take some time away and sign back up when we let you know it's released. You are totally free to do so.I really, really hope that clears things up.
