The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Hmm don't know, not used it for this for a while.

You might have to manually go through and check then add the automation to the races that fit the criteria - of course a fav can come in and skew it

[A Former User]

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I was wondering if we could use Betfair's SP data to quickly build up a historic data set.
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices

We could get race type, number of runners, BSP values and in-play min values

I'm working today so can't look at it until this evening at the earliest but might be useful?

I've had a look at the data and I'm not sure it will be good enough. The In Play min is based on lowest value where £100 was traded, I've checked a couple of races where I had multiple horses match at 1.8 and not all of the horse show as low as this figure. I had one race where 4 horses matched but the data shows their lows to be 1.65 (winner), 1.65, 7.0, 9.2.

Probably the detailed historic betfair data would be better but I have no idea how to process the files myself.
https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home
However, if anyone does then they are offering free Pro and Advanced data for the last month or more.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

I did 2.04. Going to do the last at 08:20 and reassess. If it fails I'll stay away from Aus as others have said.

@Martin-Dodd I cancelled that one when I saw one of the horses steaming
As it happened it drifted again and no doubt qualified.

From the graphs i make it 2 matched. Looks like with better liquidity it would have been at least 1 more.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-dodd said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

I did 2.04. Going to do the last at 08:20 and reassess. If it fails I'll stay away from Aus as others have said.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer yes...only one match in each
I haven't had a winner since 11am yesterday...I'm wondering if it's genuinely only one getting to 1.8 or if the liquidity just isn't allowing them to get matched? More investigation needed I think

[Richard Latimer]

@Martin-Dodd, did these qualify for you?

[Richard Latimer]

Anyone else do the early morning aussie ones? 2 from 2 losses so far.

06:15 & 06:35

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@alan-steward Hmmm I think so, been a while since I used fairbot for horse racing and used these features should be 'Keep'

Fairbot is a beast!

@Ryan-Carruthers I just downloaded fairbot as a trial but unless I'm mistaken it won't let you set up a rule to only lay the field when fav is 4.0+?

Any ideas?

Betfair Bot Manager is a lot more pricy.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm surprised this spreadsheet is still here from 2014 but it is. Massive amount of data from 2014-2018. Seems less runners not necessarily a bad thing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TrjQbqCma6WrZjuyR-mkXEmgkBMpw73U3mOvsjBSSVQ/edit#gid=0

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter Depends. If you match 3 at those odds you're only losing a little and if you match 4 at 3.35 then it's profit.

That last race matched 3 @ 3.35
2 @ 2.32

So only small losses there. But then 1.67, 1.34 and 1.07 would all have lost.

The race before though would have been quids in. I think 4 matched @ 3.35, 3 @ 2.32 & 2@ 1.67 & 1.34. The only 1 that outright lost was the 1.07.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@james-everard Yeah. I agree mate, I don't use automation. I think a few of them have deals on with servers but it'll cost an extra monthly subscription. You can always set up the trade on the Betfair website and leave it. Just manually put it all in and set it to 'Keep'. That's what I have been doing. To be honest though I don't think the liquidity it too good overnight from what I've seen on my results. Not sure it's worth doing. Morning and Evening seem to be a bit better.

You can't rule out when short price favs enter the fray either.

Thought I was replying to a recent post but not so sure now haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

@keith-dow said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@james-everard Yeah. I agree mate, I don't use automation. I think a few of them have deals on with servers but it'll cost an extra monthly subscription. You can always set up the trade on the Betfair website and leave it. Just manually put it all in and set it to 'Keep'. That's what I have been doing. To be honest though I don't think the liquidity it too good overnight from what I've seen on my results. Not sure it's worth doing. Morning and Evening seem to be a bit better.

You can't rule out when short price favs enter the fray either.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer interesting idea worth testing. Would you drop above 2?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter what do you think about the other thing I linked? Essentially drip laying the field?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter Yeah I know

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2009/04/lay-field-my-favourite-racing-strategy.html

This is very interesting. Not just laying at 1 price but several staggered steps for each. I guess it's a bit like the split stake in football.

@Martin-Futter what do you think?

That particular strategy would have seen loads matched on the last and a 1.34 price turned over.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer we had 1.01 already today

[Richard Latimer]

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2009/04/lay-field-my-favourite-racing-strategy.html

This is very interesting. Not just laying at 1 price but several staggered steps for each. I guess it's a bit like the split stake in football.

@Martin-Futter what do you think?

[Richard Latimer]

Going on nothing than good solid reasoning I imagine 2.04 is a good place to put each lay. We all know people always gravitate to a round number so 2.0 will be harder to match than 2.02. But then I would guess the same applies to the number directly after 2.0. A certain amount of people probably think they are being clever by going at 2.02 which of course they are.......to an extent.........until someone jumps ahead of 2.02.

I'm also wondering if doing a blanket lay the field @ 1.01 would be a good idea. The articles I've read point out a blanket lay the field @ 2.0 is a losing prospect but I'm sure we already knew this.

However a blanket lay the field @ 1.01 is a winner even if laying every single UK race on the schedule 24/7 52 weeks a year!

I wonder what kinds of races are more likely to see 1.01 turned over (same as we are allready doing or a whole new set of criteria?)......?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter I've added with all the details I know but other than fave price was over 4.0 and there were at least 4 horses under 10.0 I'm not sure on exact details.