The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@jonathan-jones I'll need to look into my results for the past couple of years but I'm pretty sure all the big racing events my strategies have struggled but I might be wrong.
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Well, thats been a totally crap week.
Incidentally i checked the historical data i have for my portfolio experiment and Cheltnam weeks in 2021 and 2022 were totally crap. Should of looked before hand really. Wont be trading over cheltnam next year for sure. -
@jonathan-jones daily qualifiers can take 24 hours to show after changing the filter I believe, check the upcoming qualifiers when you run the strategy instead for instant results.
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@alastair-gray
Good to see mate
puts it more into a general perspective alright, definitely think looking at it over the longer term is the way to go. I was hoping I could withdraw a bit every month or so but I might have to extend that timescale a wee bit given recent events 
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If i change the version of a strategy thats active (so the one i want the daily qualifiers to use), how do i know if that change has been reflected in the qualifiers? I changed one this morning from one version to the other, but looking at the daily qualifiers i dont think (but have no real way of knowing) its showing the right ones.
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@alastair-gray just make sure your bot is set up to allow bets on both UK and Irish races - the ready-made bot is set up for UK only.
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Just variance I think. Not currently close to the max drawdown.
These are my live results since I started them in June last year. I've had losing months, but so far not had a losing quarter. Only difference with John's is my bot doesn't fire on Irish races - think it's due to the 'class' filter.
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@angus-macleod been slowly thinking the same. Fingers crossed
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Hoping this downswing on the short odds lays turns around soon, my poor bank doesn't know whats hit it
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Since its now been 2 weeks i thought i would give a bit of an update on my portfolio experiment of trading all the strategies on a small account with a 1% risk.
Its been a rubbish start to be honest. I am in profit but i am also in drawdown and miles behind target. I am looking at the 'target' being the average daily points as determined by the historical data. That is 4.1, i am currently on 0.56 for a total of £3.26 profit. The drawdown and number of days in drawdown is nothing out of the ordinary from the historical (so far). at 8.6% and 7 days thats pretty common in the past 2 years. What is slightly worrying is that over 14 days i have only had 4 positive days. I cant see a period that poor at all in the last 2 years of data. Guessi picked a bad time to start.
So, the experiment continues. Next update will probably be at the end of the first month.
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@john-folan yeah expected it to be a little more competitive but state man just could not get close.
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@john-folan just too good that horse.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@craig-vaulks said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
It’s drifted a bit. I took 1.39
Worth a go at that price.
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@craig-vaulks said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
It’s drifted a bit. I took 1.39
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@john-folan state man is decent competition would expect it to put constitution hill under pressure at some point.
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I keep looking at Constitution Hill. I will be laying tomorrow as whilst it will probably win that horse is way to short and isn’t used to being raced off the bridle.
I’ll take a price as low was possible. Can’t resist something that short. Altior springs to mind.
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@jonathan-jones thanks, I'll have a look. New to BTC so still getting to grips with the stats software.
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@scott-higgins
Couldnt you do that here?
Set a filter by year (then probably by race type to reduce the number crunching). Set bet type to back, BSP (or whatever) then set the grouping to entry price. Wouldnt give a % but would give group totals and total (so wouldnt need a phd in math to work it out). IF you wantedto go further you could download the individual trades. -
@scott-higgins said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
A long shot but does anyone know of a site that would hold data on the odds of winning horses per year. By that I mean maybe % winners that started odds on, the % upto 10/1 etc.
I have this data if its any use?0_1678718058390_Horses 2021-2022 BSP Odds.xlsx
