Lets Give Footie Trading A Go
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Going to give a new system a go and post how I do here**.
I will have some potential games to look at in a trading plan. I will then try and watch the game to see if i am going to enter the trade. If i cant watch the game i will look at inplay stats before deciding if i want to etner a trade.
Expecting goals from 30mins owards
I will select the games for my plan as follows:
High chance of second half goals above 80%
Average goals are above 2.5 goals
A clear favourite most of the time or two high scoring teams.Part 1 of the trade
Look for odds on O1.5 goals around 1.51 and above when entering the trade.
. If a goal is scored before 70mins let the trade run dont enter part 2.
Only going to enter at 0-0 and if game looks lively. So will look at possession and shots on target and shots off target before entering whilst watching the game if i can.Part 2
3/4 of my stake will enter in the over 0.5 goals market at around 60mins or when odds go above 1.51 if no goals before then from the Part 1 of the trade.Trade out of the over 1.5 goal trade at the same time as entering the over 0.5 goal trade on around 60-65mins when odds hit 1.52 or above.
Second Half Trades only on the overs markets
High chance of second half goals above 80%
average goals are above 2.5 goals
Clear favourite or if inplay stats look good at half time for no clear favs.
Game doesn’t have to be 0-0 it could be 1-0 1-1 or even 0-1
Staking plan = split stake into 2 parts. Part 1 at odds of 1.51 or above of the next goal market. . Part 2 around 1.70 or above on the same market.
Inplay stats to look for:
Shots on and off target
if there are 5+ shots on target at half-time and 5+ off target with a few corners thrown in for good measure I feel a lot better about entering a trade. So a decent amount of shots on target.
Dangerous attacks
Attacks dived by dangerous attacks we are looking at 50% plus.
So 50 attacks and 30 are dangerous is 60% so decent stats to possible enter the trade.Around 60min mark
So say at HT there were 5 shots on and 5 shots off target I would like to see more shots between 45-60 mins to make sure it is still looking like a goal will be scored. I want to make sure the game is still open and a goal is likely.FOOTBALL DATA WEBSITES
www.statarea.com -
Just a quick update
I am following one tipster on twitter and i must admit he is brill.
His name is the Grey One and defo worth a look. He is FREE!!!
The match he has gone for today is
Denmark
Silkeborg - Viborg O.5FHG, O1.5, O2.5, BTS, O.5SHGAlso i am tracking a new Laying system laying the favourites. Here a todays selections
! 22-Oct-20 11:30 Tuzlaspor (Lay) v Ankaraspor 1.50
22-Oct-20 12:35 Beijing Guoan (Lay) v Shandong Luneng 2.08
22-Oct-20 17:55 Bayer Leverkusen (Lay) v Nice 1.51
22-Oct-20 17:55 Radid Vienna v Arsenal (Lay) 1.66
22-Oct-20 20:00 Celtic v AC Milan (Lay) 2.02 -
@gary-brown said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:
@matt-wood said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:
Morning Gary.
Mine brain has been turning over you last post all night, how sad
Do I have this correct?
Lay O2.5, if no goal by 60 Lay O1.5. At this point do you cash out on the first lay (O2.5) for a loss or leave it and have both lays running?
If no goal lay O0.5 by 80. At this point do you have all three lays running or would you have already cashed out of the O2.5 and now cash out of the O1.5 as well to leave just the O0.5 lay til the end?
hope that makes sense
Does seem very interesting as I can see the liability could be very low doing it this way.
to be honest Matt its not my system but i am willing to try it out. A few expereinced traders mentioned this to me but i havent had chance to look at it yet and understand it.
I was hoping someone here may have used it or seen it in action to give me some feedback but like you i am new to this way of trading .
Thanks for replying.
I currently am doing a 3 part split stake on my 2HG so will be seeing how you do this with great interest. Also will set up to track it as best I can myself. -
@gary-brown said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:
Very interesting
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@gary-brown said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:
well first trade to put here is
Eindhoven Excelsior
over 1.5 goals if odds hit 1.42 or over 2.5 goals depending on action and if no goal in first 10-15mins as odds are expecting goals in this game.i dont trade out these unless no goals at 70mins if doing the over 1.5 goals
same game i am also going for FHG if odds hit 1.42 using split stakes at 1.42 1.70 and 2.30
so we had mixed results due to the red card here.
FHG lost
over 1.5 winner is what i went for.so 1/2 success for me which isnt a great start.
overall my trading was much better with decent profit today especaily from a few selections from a telegram service i am on (very cheap and very good start this week using it) and Keiths SHG tip which i traded on the goals markets and ended up a big winner from such small stakes by laying the under 4.5 goals at HTime when the score was 1 - 1 and all 5 goals came as well so £11 profit from a £2 stake as well as over 2.5 goals at 1.33 odds but only got 1 part matched on this.
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well first trade to put here is
Eindhoven Excelsior
over 1.5 goals if odds hit 1.42 or over 2.5 goals depending on action and if no goal in first 10-15mins as odds are expecting goals in this game.i dont trade out these unless no goals at 70mins if doing the over 1.5 goals
same game i am also going for FHG if odds hit 1.42 using split stakes at 1.42 1.70 and 2.30
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@matt-wood said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:
Morning Gary.
Mine brain has been turning over you last post all night, how sad
Do I have this correct?
Lay O2.5, if no goal by 60 Lay O1.5. At this point do you cash out on the first lay (O2.5) for a loss or leave it and have both lays running?
If no goal lay O0.5 by 80. At this point do you have all three lays running or would you have already cashed out of the O2.5 and now cash out of the O1.5 as well to leave just the O0.5 lay til the end?
hope that makes sense
Does seem very interesting as I can see the liability could be very low doing it this way.
to be honest Matt its not my system but i am willing to try it out. A few expereinced traders mentioned this to me but i havent had chance to look at it yet and understand it.
I was hoping someone here may have used it or seen it in action to give me some feedback but like you i am new to this way of trading .
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Morning Gary.
Mine brain has been turning over you last post all night, how sad
Do I have this correct?
Lay O2.5, if no goal by 60 Lay O1.5. At this point do you cash out on the first lay (O2.5) for a loss or leave it and have both lays running?
If no goal lay O0.5 by 80. At this point do you have all three lays running or would you have already cashed out of the O2.5 and now cash out of the O1.5 as well to leave just the O0.5 lay til the end?
hope that makes sense
Does seem very interesting as I can see the liability could be very low doing it this way.
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@gary-brown interested to see how this pans out!
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well i going to start posting again so hopefully i get time to continue this.
first post i am going to use is this idea i am looking into testing for second half goals to see how it goes.
HT 0-0
Split stake into 3 ..........
- go to 3 goals ahead market lay U2.5 at 1.30 or lower (ideal if 1.20) for 33% let that run for a bit see how it goes
if no goal about 60 mins go 2 goals ahead and lay 1.5 at around 1.50 or lower for next 33%........
finally if nothing by 80 mins then lay U0.5 for final 33% if 1 goal after matched you are scratch....if 2 late goals happy days!!
anyone used this system of something similar for second half goals it would be good to hear from you.
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How Did Friday go?
Well it was hard work today. Spurs game really was the sticking point to be honest as I wouldn't expect the game to lose on 2 filters with Bournemouth in such poor form.Anyway, overall I was down around 2-2.5 points today so disappointing after such as great run.
4 LOSES = 8POINTS DOWN
4 WINS = 5.5 POINTSI MUST take it steady today. This is my danger spot when it comes to trading after doing well, I hate losing and don't want to let the chimp take control of the brain and I end up doing some stupid TRADES.
Football / Famalicao v Benfica : Over/Under 1.5 Goals won
Let the trade run and this was a full winner.Football / Verona v Inter : Match Odds won
laid the under dog and inter equalised. So a winner this one. Not sure if this was one of the email selections. I don't think it was.Football / Tondela v Porto : Over/Under 1.5 Goals won
Let the trade run for a full win.Football / Bournemouth v Tottenham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals lost
went for second half goal but it wasn't too be. This Spurs game was on 2 filters and both let me down today.Football / Rio Ave v Portimonense : Match Odds won
lay the under dog. This one was a winnerFootball / AaB v AGF : Over/Under 1.5 Goals lost
Let the trade run and no more goals followed so this was a loss.Football / Tabor Sezana v NK Maribor : Match Odds lost
I entered when home under dogs were 2 up but still ended up losing as they went 3 goals ahead.Football / Bournemouth v Tottenham : First Half Goals 1.5 lost. traded out on 70mins but with this type of trade you still lose around 70% of your stake.
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Thursday WATCH LIST.
Rizespor Kayserispor Over 1.5
Tabor Sezana Maribor OVER 1.5
Leeds v Stoke City 2nd half goal
Aalborg Aarhus Over 1.5
Brondby Nordsjaelland Over 1.5 goals
Bournemouth Tottenham Over 1.5 2nd half goal
Besiktas Kasimpasa Over 1.5
Tondela v FC Porto LTD
Horn A. Klagenfurt 2ND HALF GOAL
A, Villa v Man U 2nd Half Goal Lay Villa if they take the lead
Verona Inter Over 1.5
Girona Almeria FHG FilterI will decide on some trades during the match if I am watching.
also I like to keep an eye on trades that James W, Alan, John W posts and Keith. -
Wedensday
A brill day today for me.
Here are my trades. May sneak another one or two in but i am not bothered as i do like what I made so far today.6 points profit today so one of the better days in football trading.
Football
Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets
Market
Start time
Settled date
Profit/loss (£)
Football / AEK Athens v OFI : Over/Under 1.5 Goals- winner.
wasnt on my plan but the game got my attnetion with its inplay stats and such as strong home fav. It was 0-0 at 30mins and so it felt like it would be rude not to trade this one. The goal came soon after i entered so i didnt get chanc eto post this one in the forum which is what i was thinking of doing.Football / Mura v Triglav : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
on my list and a nice winner for my over 1.5 goal strategy.Football / Genoa v Napoli : Over/Under 2.5 Goals
An overs trade in the second half. Rather than LTD i went for overs at decent odds on 60mins. Dindt have to wait long before the goal came.
0
Football / Trans Narva v Paide Linnameeskond : Match Odds
this was a loss. But hey we have them every day.Football / Bristol City v Hull : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
nice second half goal winner here.Football / Young Boys v Thun : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
nice winner here for over 1.5 goalsFootball / Aris v Olympiakos : Over/Under 1.5 Goals
another winner here for this strategy.Football / Zenit St Petersburg v Sochi : Match Odds
laid the under dog here when Zenit looked like coming back into the game in the secondhalf.Football / C-Osaka v Shimizu : Over/Under 0.5 Goals
nice second half winner here what John Hurst had on his list. He has some great picks if anyone else follws his selections you could do a lot worse. Great guy as well. -
@gary-brown remember this is why everyone is different and everyone that sticks at trading long term will have their own style. Opinions rule the market it makes them go up and down. We are all easy to just judge individual matches, but its the long term. I had liverpool as a FHG on the filter but pre match ruled it out because of no motivation, would have been a loss had i added it. Likewise with a number of trades over on the football thread. Remember also this is football and anything can happen, trading isnt gambling its about limiting risk before you enter that trade.
I 100% agree with you with this full transparency part. I wish more traders did this, would make it far easier to trust them especially early days when your trying to learn, knowing they were a good trader instead of just talk would really help.
These are some cracking results mate. Really good to see you sticking at it and developing ideas and your own approach. Well on your way. Well done mate
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Trades my filters have thrown up that i will take a look at and paper trade if they qualify.
Some of these games i may trade for real some i wont. Yes i have Man City on the list and they dont have anything to play for but i have seen a few games recently and eventhough the teams had nothing to play for (points wise) they played with freedom and without fear and this made the games open and exciting to watch for the neutral. Palace didnt have anything to play for yesterday but they gave Cheslea a game. Also Southampton didnt have anything to play for but certainity didnt role over and die when Man City bombarded their goal with waves of attacks. I also found this to be the case last season as well. I would watch the game and see if the motivation off the players is high before ruling game out for a theory i havent seen any facts to prove or disporve yet, oponly peole just having their own say and opinions. Well my opinion is watch the game first before deciding if the game is dead or the teams are playing to win.
I listen to what some people say but half the time we have so many opinions and talk from traders saying this and saying that and they just sound like second hand car sales people trying to convince people what they say is correct but they dont follow this up with solid evidence. But i dont see any evidence that they are good traders. Where are their profit and loss sheets from betfair? Where are their results? At least i am posting below my trades.
Wednesday trades
4;30pm Trabzonspor Antaly Over 1.5
5pm West Brom Derby FHG
5;15 Young Boys Thun Over 1.5
6pm Man City Newcastle Utd Over 1.5 2nd half goals
6pm Bristol City Hull City 2nd half goal
6;30pm Genoa Napoli 2nd half goals
7pm Goztepe Ankaragucu Over 1.5 2nd half goal
7PM Alanyaspor Galatasaray fhg
7:15pm Mura Triglav Over 1.5
7:30pm AEK Athens FC OFI Crete Over 1.5
7:30pm Betis V Osasuana Over 1.5
8;45pm AS Roma Parma FHG Over 1.5 goals Second Half goals
8:45pm Atalanta Sampdoria 2nd half goals
9pm Barcelona Espanyo 2nd half goals -
Tuesday - how did it go. Around 1%-1.5% bank growth today so i am happy with that.
Football / Basaksehir v Denizlispor : Over/Under 0.5 Goals in second half around 60 mins and a goal came not long after. Odds were around 1.45 so my minimum.
Football / Crystal Palace v Chelsea : Match Odds. Reback trade and backed Chelsea here and traded out for profit after the goal.
Football / Reading v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals. This was a loss. No secondhalf goal so a full 2 points loss here.
Football / NK Celje v Domzale : Over/Under 1.5 Goals. Kept the trade alive until 2 goals had been scored. Didnt take too long it was 1-1 at HTime
Football / Brentford v Charlton : Over/Under 1.5 Goals. Went for second half goal as Charloton the dogs were still ahead around 60mins.
Football / Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce : Match Odds- laid home under dog in second half.
Football / Genclerbirligi v Fenerbahce : Over/Under 1.5 Goals- backed over 1.5 goals in the first half kept it alive when under dog scored first.
A late trade to add was over 1.5 goals on AC Milan game and Juve. I entered at 30mins for 1.65 odds which was brill I thought for these teams. It was split stakes so I didn’t put part 2 of the trade in before the goal which happened between 45-48mins in the second half. Instead of trading out for profit around 25% of what I would get if (I’d 1 goals were scored) I decided it wasn’t worth trading out so I left the trade alive and as I wanted, more goals followed. Happy with that trade as it would of been too early for a second half trade but a nice winner on the over 1.5 goals.
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Monday Trades. Made around 3% in profit today so cant complain how the day went.
Football / Moreirense v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 1.5 Goals trade out loss
Football / Sevilla v Eibar : Over/Under 1.5 Goals trade out win
Football / Tottenham v Everton : Over/Under 1.5 Goals trade out win
Football / Kayserispor v Besiktas : Over/Under 1.5 Goals won (second half overs)
Football / Viborg v Nykobing FC : Over/Under 3.5 Goals won (second half overs)
Football / Vejle v Roskilde : Over/Under 4.5 Goals won (second half overs) -
Sundays trading- how did it go? around 2 points profit today. Would of been higher in the city game but no goal arrived even after all that pressure.
Football / Southampton v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals lost
Football / Kasimpasa v Sivasspor : Over/Under 1.5 Goals lost
Football / Liverpool v Aston Villa : Over/Under 1.5 Goals won (second half trade)
Football / Inter v Bologna : Match Odds won (laid inter)
Football / Newcastle v West Ham : Match Odds won (laid West Ham)
Football / AIK v Falkenbergs : Over/Under 1.5 Goals won- split stake
Football / Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid : Match Odds won (backed Real in second half)
Football / Burnley v Sheff Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals won- unders trade from start. To be honest really didnt like this trade and was lucky to be in profit.Note ot myself- please stay away from unders trades they dont agree with your trading personality.
