Lets Give Footie Trading A Go

[A Former User]

I did well on these Ryan. I guess beginners luck using a new system of researching based on your video.

Both went exactly the way I thought they would here.
I did the same for Leicester match but that didn't play out anything close to what the research was predicting.

It was suppose to be a Leicester win, over 1.5 goals and a high chance of a goal coming in the second half and none of these scenarios happened. I guess this proves you got to watch and monitor the game before placing the trade as not all games follow the pre match research and so this is something you must do before placing the trade.

Its obvious really as we are human beings and cant expect us to behave and follow patterns like robots consistently even if their is some patterns in our behaviour over time it does vary.

[Ryan]

@gary-brown Again yes, another good one. Barca second goal at 71 mins.

[Ryan]

@gary-brown This was a cracker well researched and went to play on the LTD at HT.

[A Former User]

@martin-futter @Ryan-Carruthers
this is my second game I have given detailed research a go.
Its the Spurs game tonight. Again a game I can sit and watch before deciding what to do.

Spurs fighting for European footie and West ham fighting off relegation.
13/2 home games were above 1.5 goals for Spurs (4th)
10/5 away games for West ham had over 1.5 goals which is low. (20th)
West Ham away record is poor 3 3 9 so one of the worst in the league (14th)
Spurs form at home is pretty good 8 3 4 (5th place)

FHG goals = 80% spurs 60% west ham
Second half goals = 80% spurs 90% west ham
Scored FHalf goals 50% spurs 20% West ham
Scored second half goals = 60% spurs 40% west ham
Conceded first half = 40% spurs 50% west ham
Conceded second half = 50% spurs 80% west ham
Overall Average goals scored per game = 2.7

Scored first in the match 70% Spurs
Concede first in the match 70% West Ham

Conclusion
I am looking for Spurs to score in the second half as West Ham do concede in 80% of their matches in the second half.
So good opportunity to LTD if drawing at half time or go for overs around the 60 minute mark. So this allows me to check inplay stats and watch the game in the first half to see if the match is going as planned based ion the above research.

Other good news is that Spurs over 1.5 goals for second half is high at 60% of games had 2 or move goals scored during the second half. I am only looking for one goal though and no goals to be scored between 45-60 minutes for me to enter this trade.

Possible back Spurs win sometime in the first half?- (spurs score first 70% and 80% of games finish with first half over 0.5 goals for Spurs).

You would expect Spurs to score first 70% and West Ham concede first 70% of the time so it could be a back Spurs trade this game if they look like they are dominating the game . Spurs do have a First Half over 0.5 percentage at 80% which is high and so I can not rule out Spurs taking the lead in the first half.

Over 1.5 goals
Spurs have a decent record for over 1.5 goals in a game. 13.2 in their favour according to flash scores and 90% according to BTC software filters. But the downside is West Ham don’t have a good over 1.5 goal record. They are down at 60% and 10/5 from flash score data.

[A Former User]

Hi Ryan Hi Martin @martin-futter @Ryan-Carruthers I was wondering if you could take a look at my research based on a couple of matches and see what you think. Am I using the data correctly to make accurate decisions about possible trades or that match?

Barcelona V Bilboa 9pm tonight

Overview
Barcelona home record = 25 wins and 2 draws. So unbeaten in 27 matches at home in the league.

Ath Bilbao Away record = 2 8 5 this season so they draw a lot away from home

Odds = 1.33 Barcelona win

League table positions = 2nd and 10th

Have they got something to play for = Barcelona going for the title with Real so they need the points in this battle for the League title.

FHG goals over 0.5 = Barcelona 70% Ath Bilbao 70% = 140
Second half goal over 0.5 = Barcelona 90% Ath Bilbao 80% = 170
Scored FHalf goals Barcelona 70% Ath Bilbao 70% = 140
Scroed second half goals = Barcelona 70% Ath Bilbao 50% = 120
Conceded first half = Barceelona 20% Ath Bilbao 30%= 50
Conceded second half = Barcelona 40% Ath Bilbao 70% = 110
Overall goals scored per match = 2.95

Over 1.5 goals Barcelona home = 12/3 (3rd) Bilbao away = 11/4 (8th) but all last 5 games have been over 1.5 goals for Bilbao and 4/5 for Barcelona.

I expect Barecelona to score first = Bareclona - 90% Bilbao = 60%

So Barcelona I would expect to come back if Bilbao score as they haven’t lost a game at home in 27 matches and Bilboa have only won 2 games away this season. So Reback definitely a trade here even if the match ends in a draw.

Expect a second half goal likely to come from Barcelona 70% compared to 50% and Barcelona only concede 40% of matches in second half. So keep an eye out for a second half goal by Barcelona and the signs they are pushing for one.

I would go for backing Barcelona here. Using the reback method so if odds drift I can reback again with 50% of my stake. Try and enter a bit later in the first half so I get better odds than 1.36. But be aware that 7/10 Barcelona matches do have a FHG so I could miss out on this trade. If you see any danger signs such as Ath Bilboa looking the most dangerous and likely to score dont place the trade or trade out and wait for a better opportunity.

If I do miss out on backing Barcelona (they go 1 up before i place the trade) then I will be looking to see if a second half goal is likely after 60 mins if the odds are decent. If drawing the game at 60 mins then it maybe worth backing Barcelona to go onto winning the game in the second half if inplay stats show this is likely because Barcelona are dominating the game in terms of possession and are having more dangerous attacks, shots on and off target showing their intent to win the game and not settle for a draw.

So waht do you think guys? Am i drawing the right conclusions based on the research to warrent going into the match with confidence and look for signs which back up my thoughts above?

[A Former User]

@martin-futter said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:

@gary-brown you should get a notification where the bell is. That will then take you to the thread you were tagged in. It will also show in the list of recent threads very near the to.

Hi Martin I cant see any links pop up near the bell or notifications.

I have noticed the section where it says private coaching is not highlighted like the other areas like get started and announcements sections. It is dull so maybe their is a problem here and that's why I cant access the private coaching section?

[Martin]

@gary-brown you should get a notification where the bell is. That will then take you to the thread you were tagged in. It will also show in the list of recent threads very near the to.

[A Former User]

so what have I been doing since we got started up and running?

My main trading I have been doing is paper trading and creating some new filters and decideing which filter I will use in the future for my trading. Its about building up confidence again and testing some ideas and doing the odd trade to help build up the bank which has been going well since March and Covid19 hit us.

I am testing 6 different over 1.5 goal filters. Each filter is different and looking at different things on each filter. So far early days but a few of the filters are in decent profit and i am adapting the rules of trading based on the results. An example is trade out if a red card. Also trade out if thier is a late first goal around 70 mins. Still in the test mode process but does look promising after a couple of weeks testing.

New filters testing
I am testing a couple of second half goal filters. One is going really well so far so i am happy with this and i am looking at a couple of others now.

I am testing a lay the under dog filter called relay reloaded.
I am recording results from the daily emails for lay the under dog selections.

These seem to be a good way of trading especially if you monitor inplay action and can watch the game so you can see a reason that the fav is going to make a come back as expected by the football rating info.

What I want to concentrate on in the short term future?**
Well this is narrowing down trades to select quality iover quantity. The will involve extra research on the games highlighted by my fitlers. At the moment because I am testing filters and recording results I as you can imagine have a big original trading list of games to start with which is too much too look at with extra research.

Once I have got rid of testing some filters I am not 100% confident in and decided which filters are giving me a regular profit I can then focus on narrowing them down and practising my match reading skills alongside checking inplay stas.

I would ideally want to write down inplay stats next to a trade on my spreadsheets to see if it does make a difference to strikerate of wining trades. In theory it should work but it isn't certain that it will do and only one way to find out is to test it.

[A Former User]

@martin-futter said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:

@gary-brown no check your tags mate @Ryan-Carruthers tagged you in it earlier

im not sure how to do it Martin checking tags.

[Martin]

@gary-brown no check your tags mate @Ryan-Carruthers tagged you in it earlier

[A Former User]

Hi Ryan I think I have found my private coaching page. Is this the page?

[A Former User]

results from today

@gary-brown said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:

Russia FNL 11:00 Chertanovo M. M. Saransk
Russia FNL 14:00 Tekstilshtik T. Moscow
Algeria Ligue 1 15:00 Constantine Biskra

Game 1 was a no trade. It was 2-0 at 30mins and 3-0 before 65mins.
Game 2 was 0-0 at 30mins and ended 0-0 at full time so was a loss.
Game 3 was 0-0 at 30mins and had 2 goals before 70mins so was a winner. Odds were good above 2.0 on over 1.5 goals so nice profit here and a lot more than the recommended 1.51 odds.

So 1 win and 1 loss here.

[A Former User]

@gary-brown said in Lets Give Footie Trading A Go:

Had a break Sat and Friday. I didnt do any trades or look on my filter

selections coming up today to look at

Vietnam V.League 1 11:00 Than Quang Ninh T&T Ha Noi
Russia FNL 11:00 Chertanovo M. M. Saransk
Russia FNL 14:00 Tekstilshtik T. Moscow
Algeria Ligue 1 15:00 Constantine Biskra

will record results today.

Over 1.5 at 30mins if 0-0 and odds above 1.51 or a late second half goal from 60-65mins if odds reach 1.50 and above for over 0.5 goals.

I am going to scrap the FIRST GAME POSTWD HERE I just double checked and not enough games played in this league for this one to qualify. The game to scratch is Vietnam V.League 1 11:00 Than Quang Ninh T&T Ha Noi

[Ryan]

@gary-brown Looking good buddy!

[A Former User]

Had a break Sat and Friday. I didnt do any trades or look on my filter

selections coming up today to look at

Vietnam V.League 1 11:00 Than Quang Ninh T&T Ha Noi
Russia FNL 11:00 Chertanovo M. M. Saransk
Russia FNL 14:00 Tekstilshtik T. Moscow
Algeria Ligue 1 15:00 Constantine Biskra

will record results today.

Over 1.5 at 30mins if 0-0 and odds above 1.51 or a late second half goal from 60-65mins if odds reach 1.50 and above for over 0.5 goals.

[Ryan]

@gary-brown Well played, it's nice to see how you are progressing.

[A Former User]

So no trades from my filter today but I did a bit of footie trading today before more and more games get postponed and limited opportunities to trade will be available.

So what did I do?
FHG in the Man U game odds were 1.67 when entered.
over 1.5 goals in the Rangers game odds were 1.83
so two profitable trades here based on watching the match and keeping an eye on what our members were posting on the forum as this gives me confidence to enter a trade when experienced traders are seeing what I am seeing.

So overall on the footie a decent trading day.

[A Former User]

Results from filter so far. Sunday to Wednesday.
28 games qualified for me in this time scale from the filters.

Scorelines recorded at 30mins to decide what trade to enter and full time scores.
If 0-0 at 30mins I checked inplay stats and if happy I entered as a over 1.5 goals with 0.25% stake. If not 0-0 at half time I would enter on the overs markets if odds reached above 1.51 around 60-65 mins this would be. Again only entered if goal looked likely.
Sunday
Amstetten Ried 1-1 1-2 Second half goal trade was a winner
Ross County Rangers 0-0 0-1 over 1.5 trade losing one. Second Half trade winning one.
Salzburg Strum Graz 0-0 2-0 Second half goal trade was a winner
Mattersburg LASK 0-1 0-1 Second half goal trade was a losing one.
Breda Roda 1-0 4-1 Second half goal trade was a winner
AC Milan Genoa 0-1 1-2 Second half goal trade was a winner
Din. Zabreg Istra 1961 1-0 2-0 Second half goal trade was a winner
Bayern Munich FC Augsburg 0-0 No trade odds too low for second half goals.
FC Copenhagen Horsens 0-0 1-0 over 1.5 goal trade was a winner.
Ludogarets Dunav Ruse 2-1 5-1 No trade odds too low for second half goals.
Slavia Prague Sparta Prague 0-0 1-1 Second half goal trade was a winner
Leiga Piast Gliwcie 1-0 1-2 Second half goal trade was a winner
Man U Man City 1-0 2-0 Second half goal trade was a winner
Villarreal Leganes 1-0 1-2 Second half goal trade was a winner
Sporting Aves 0-0 1-0 Second half goal trade was a winner
Randers FC Midjylland 0-1 1-2 Second half goal trade was a winner
Betis Real Madrid 0-0 1-2 over 1.5 goal trade was a winner
Benevento Pascara 3-0 Not sure. No trade odds too low for second half goals.

Monday
Sileborg Aarhus 0-0 2-1 Trade at 30mins for over 1.5 goals was a winner.
Lens Orleans 0-0 1-0 Trade at 30mins for over 1.5 goals was a winner.
Leicester Villa 0-0 4-0 Trade at 30mins for over 1.5 goals was a winner.

Tuesday
19:45 Notts County Aldershot 1-1 3-1 Second half goal trade was a winner
19:45 Kings Lynn Bradford PA 0-1 0-1 Second half goal trader not a winner.
19:45 Blackpool Tranmere 0-2 1-2 Second half goal trade a winner
19:45 Inverness Queen of South 1-0 3-1 Second half goal trade a winner
19:45 Stirling Cove Rangers 0- 5 1-7 No trade. Overs markets far too low to hot odds.

Wednesday
Yeni Malatyaspor Trabzonspor 0-2 1-2 Second half goal trade a winner

B. Monchengladbach FC Koln 0-0 2-1 Trade at 30mins for over 1.5 goals was a winner.

Quite a lot of the trades I didn’t trade due to red cards or poor inplay stats as I feel this is important. Some second half goals may have arrived before 60mins so the second half trade may not have been placed due to hitting the odds of 1.5 or above.

[A Former User]

nothing on the filters today but I still may trade.
But obviously not record here as this is mainly for the system I am using.

I think I will post all this weeks results so far here a bot later today.

[A Former User]

todays trades
17:00 Yeni Malatyaspor Trabzonspor
17:30 B. Monchengladbach FC Koln

First game goals came before 30mins so didn't trade this one. The second half goal came around 55mins so I don't think this would have qualified for a second half goal trade as it came too early for odds to hit 1.51

second game in Germany was a winner as the goal came after 30mins and odds were above 1.51. Around 32mins I think was the first goal so this was a winner on the over 1.5 trade if traded out but because I am expecting goals in the second half I have decided to let it run.

Apart from this I think the games in the Champs league this evening would be good for these trades but obviously they wont have come up on the filter due to not being league games.

Went for over 1.5 goals in liverpool around 30mins. Odds around 1.70 and goal came just before half time. Took out liability has a high chance of a second half goal with the tie posed at 1-1. Expect it to be a full winning trade.