Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat

[A Former User]

Trades for 02-02-20

All "Goal Chaser" games can be used as a straight FHG trade with second half recovery option if required... Either, LCS, LTD or Lay U1.5 goals.

Okay, so not a good day in the office although that said I was really too busy to trade as I was working (DIY) but that said have updated as I traded.

Although Nice game went on to produce 2 FHG (sign right there lol) I traded out for 0.25 red with the red card, clearly the trading Gods weren't on my side today.

With Club Bruge game there wasn't really enough positive stats to trade the second half certainly with laying u1.5 goals. My takeaway from this is not to lay u1.5 goals unless both teams have @ least 2 SOT each.

I.e @ Spurs I only queued Lay 0-0 @ 1.98 for 1 pt... It didn't get matched and I went on to lose 1pt. Should I have layed u1.5 goals @ HT, easy to say yes when you know the final score, but at the end of the FH Spurs only had 1 shot blocked and looked like they had pretty much parked the bus... Maybe next time LTD for first half red and cash out with first goal, it would get matched quicker??? Who knows, and as they say hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Sorry, meant to add if there's a plus side I did take 0.5pts FHG green from Juve game

Anyway I still have good health, have learn't from my days trading and look forward to the next game... Maybe this eve... Onwards & upwards

[A Former User]

Trades For 01-02-20

All "Goal Chaser" games can be used as a straight FHG trade with second half recovery option if required... Either, LCS, LTD or Lay U1.5 goals

With Spezia game I layed u0.5 FHG @ 1.98 for 0.5 pts it lost but left alone @ HT as it didn't pass any other filters, game finished 1-0 with a red card. The reason I Layed U0.5 FHG @ 1.98 was due to poor in play stats and high odds meaning it wouldn't/didn't take too long to match with only half the liability.

[A Former User]

Today's Trades

I also traded FHG in Sydney this morning which wasn't on my filters was 1pt down @ HT so layed U1.5 goals & retrieved 0.5pts so at time of posting am scratch.

As I will be trading Den Bosch & Kortrijk matches in my "Goal Chaser" trade I won't be doing a Split Stake with them but they pass my selection criteria.

Will update all results good or bad later...

Just over 0.5pts green on filtered games but scratch due to game in Aus this morning... Acceptable for a day when nothing seemed to go as hoped.

[A Former User]

Trades for Wednesday 29th

[A Former User]

Couple of opportunities left in my FHG picks tonight.

All these picks are from my FHG filter which also has minimum 80% chance of over 1.5 goals for SH trade if needed.

[Richard Latimer]

All tonights potential. Any questions, ask.

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

missed out on a couple of trades thanks to my bloody awful job getting in the way of things

Thought that was me for a minute haha!

[james everard]

Not posted for a few days so thought I would put up potential trades that are currently inplay or playing this evening

BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS IF 0-0 AT HT
19.00pm Dutch Eerste Div- Jong Ajax vs Almere City

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
17.00pm Turkey Super League - Sivasspor vs Rivaspor ( lay away)
18.00pm German 3rd Div- Kaiserslautern v Sonnenhof Grossaspach ( lay away side)
18.15pm Israel Ligat Ha'al - Yehuda v Maccabi Haifa (lay home side)
20.00pm Italy Serie B- Perugia vs Livorno ( lay away )
21.00pm Portugal Primera- Sporting vs Maritimo ( lay away)

BACK UNDER 2.5 GOALS IF EARLY GOAL IN FIRST 20MINS TRADE OUT AT HT
18.45pm Portugal Primera- Guimaraes v Rio Ave
19.45pm France Ligue 2- Le Havre vs Troyes

LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1
21.00pm Portugal Primera- Sporting vs Maritimo

LCS/LTD OR BACK OVER CURRENT GOALS MARKET ON 60MINS(if no goal has been scored in the second half and inplay stats look good)
19.00pm Dutche Eerste- Jong Ajax vs Almere City

missed out on a couple of trades thanks to my bloody awful job getting in the way of things

[A Former User]

Sivasspor vs Rize. 1.5 goal split stake strategy.
But I don’t trade out if no goals on 75 mins. Only after a goal.

[Martin]

I don't mind the odd question on strategy, it's his only post today

[A Former User]

@dene-topliss Hi Dene, Martin is trying to keep this thread as no chat and for people to post their daily picks only but will answer your question here and PM you.

For any future reference please feel free to fire any questions to me via the private message route.

As the trade goes we cash out after the first goal or on 70/75 mins... I will be changing my spreadsheet to read 70mins... All credit must go to Ryan for the filter I've just adapted the staking part to fall inline with my very first trading strategy.

However I will generally wait 5mins until cashing out as the market doesn't really move much against you (again I learn't this from my first trading program) and there may well be a second goal within the 5min window.

Generally if I'm trading the split stake I will remove red and wait for the 2nd goal but only if more goals are expected. I believe Ryans filter is only set up with 1 goal to be scored with the 30-70 min window so it may not fully qualify for O1.5 goals.

Hope this answer helps, will also PM this to you as Martin will & should remove from this Thread.

Enjoy your trading

Oh & welcome to BTC

[A Former User]

@alan-steward said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

Today's Trades

As per "New Trade" Thread Roma game will be traded there... Best of luck

Hi Alan, do you cash out if a goal is scored on your split stake strategy? or just at 75mins?

[Richard Latimer]

Some of these are no longer applicable but the rest are what I'l be using as my guidlines for the day:

[A Former User]

Today's Trades

As per "New Trade" Thread Roma game will be traded there... Best of luck

[A Former User]

[Richard Latimer]

FL - Looking for 2.85 or above in the highlighted column. Expecting second half goal if match tied 0-0, 1-1 or home fave of any description losing 0-1/0-2. Also if odds on away fave losing 1-0.

DvG - Again looking for second half goals. If ELO fave losing 0-1/0-2/1-0 @ HT I will take any of them on. If tied then 8th column from right needs to be either below 1.4 or above 2.199

DBNO - If ELO fave loses first goal lay the dog, lay again if they lose the next and cash immediately they get one back. Always cash an away fave immediately yoou get the chance.

Early - Home fave 1.50 or above, away fave no higher than 1.89. FHG odds no higher than 1.39.

All odds sourced from oddsportal.com

[Richard Latimer]

Busy busy day!

Just picked up a new (old) car and have work soon enough. Anyone have any advice on moving a broken down car that won't even start? I need to get it across town where a friend has offered to let me keep it until salvage company take it away. Have until Sunday night to get it moved ffs!!

Anyway.....moving on

Inplay team lays:

These I won't touch today as I'll be working and unable to monitor personally.

Early Doors - FHG Expected

I'll only take if ave odds of FHG below 1.40 (according to odds portal) and either home fave 1.50+ or away fave no more than 1.89. Again this is checking on oddsportal.com for the average.

David v Goliath - 2h goal expected in the right circumstances

Assuming these are tied at HT either 0-0 or 1-1 there are only 2 games I would look for a 2h goal and that is Brescia, Cadiz. Other than that if the ELO dog is winning 0-1/0-2/1-0 I will look for a 2h goal on any.

Fashionably Late - 2h goals again

Bolivia already happened overnight and was posted in football trading thread. For all others (perhaps excepting Helmond as figures their a bit low at 2.75) I will look for a 2h goal if HT score is either 0-0/1-1 or dog is winning 0-1/0-2.......or if odds on away fave is losing 1-0.

And the newest most simple filter yet already yielding results.......'Rarer Than Rocking Horse S**t'. A nod to the fact these teams don't do 0-0's. I'm pre--loading them all @ 3.50 lay of the under 0.5 (well unless there is a cross over on any of the other filters).

[Richard Latimer]

For today:

Early Doors

Providing ave odds for FHG don't rise above 1.40 pre-game.

David v Goliath

These I'll only be taking for a 2h goal if HT score sees dog winning 0-1/0-2/1-0.

Fashionably Late:

If Wolves winning 1-0 @ HT or scores level at 0-0, 1-1. 2h goal expected.

Rocking Horse S**t (as in rarer than)

If 0-0 @HT then these games should see at least 1 second half goal.

Criteria 2 is percentage number of games with at least 1 goal in each of last 10 games. Criteria 3 is home scored% and criteria 4 away scored%. The higher criterias 3 and 4 the more chance I would suggest of getting that goal.

[james everard]

sorry Late but possible watchlist for this evening

LTD FOR HT OR BACK OVER 0.5 FH GOALS( Enter trade around 15min mark)
19.45pm Scottish Prem- Aberdeen vs Motherwell
19.45pm English Champ - Charlton vs Fulham

LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1( wait for odds to be below 2.5 and inplay stats good)
19.45pm Scottish Prem- Rangers vs ST Mirren

Back over 2.5 goals split stake strategy
19.45pm Scottish Prem - Hibernian vs Hamilton

LTD AT HT ONLY IF 0-0
19.45pm English Prem- Man Utd vs Burnley

LCS OR BACK OVER CURRENT GOAL MARKET ON 60MINS IF NO SECOND HALF GOAL
19.45pm Scottish Prem- Rangers vs St Mirren
20.15pm English Prem - Man Utd vs Burnley

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
19.00pm Bolivian - Guabira vs Always Ready ( Lay home side)
19.45pm Scottish Prem - Hibernian vs Hamilton ( lay away side)
19.45pm Scottish Prem - Rangers vs St Mirren ( lay away side)
20.15pm English prem - Man Utd vs Burnley ( lay away side)

If dog lay odds over 3.2 back the favourite instead

[Richard Latimer]

@keith-anderson said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

@richard-latimer said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

Trying to work out how I potentially get on some of these. Planned toilet breaks and the like haha!!

If the weaker team scores first lay them and lay them again if they score again.

If game tied 0-0 or 1-1 or dog winning HT 0-1/0-2/1-0 then game should open out for a 2h goal. Offensive numbers not between 1.4 - 2.099 if tied.

Tell your boss you have the shits!!

Every 10-15 mins for 5-10 mins at a t ime and then it becomes a regular thing. Oh look, he's got the s**t again haha!