Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat

[Akiva Anderson]

@richard-latimer said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

Trying to work out how I potentially get on some of these. Planned toilet breaks and the like haha!!

If the weaker team scores first lay them and lay them again if they score again.

If game tied 0-0 or 1-1 or dog winning HT 0-1/0-2/1-0 then game should open out for a 2h goal. Offensive numbers not between 1.4 - 2.099 if tied.

Tell your boss you have the shits!!

[Richard Latimer]

Trying to work out how I potentially get on some of these. Planned toilet breaks and the like haha!!

If the weaker team scores first lay them and lay them again if they score again.

If game tied 0-0 or 1-1 or dog winning HT 0-1/0-2/1-0 then game should open out for a 2h goal. Offensive numbers not between 1.4 - 2.099 if tied.

[Richard Latimer]

3 potential 2h goal selections that I have almost zero chance of getting on!

The Egyptian one is only if dog winning 0-1 or 0-2 @ HT

[Richard Latimer]

Elements of yesterday were brilliant, others not so but without just a couple fo those which could have easily been avoided then it would have been great. As is, still a green day.

Won't have much chance today due to work and stats page seems to be down in terms of posting at the moment. @Martin-Futter, @Ryan-Carruthers, I can't seem to tag Adam again.

In any case here are some:

Team lays if the dog go up first.

Laying the next under if scores 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT or dog leads by 1 or 2 goals (max 2 goals scored total)

If tied I wouldn't touch Malta, Atalanta or West Brom personally.

[james everard]

Watchlist for today

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
13.30pm Belgium Jupiler League - Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp
13.30pm Netherland Eerste Division- Den Bosch vs Go Ahead Eagles
13.30pm Netherland Eredivisie- Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
14.00pm Italy Serie A - Brescia vs Cagliari
17.00pm German Bundesliga - Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen
18.00pm Mexico Liga Mx - Toluca vs Necaxa
19.00pm Belgium Jupiler League- Waregem vs Genk
20.00pm Spain La Liga - Barcelona vs Grandada
22.00pm Mexico Liga Mx - Queretaro vs Club Tijuana

BACK OVER 2.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
13.30pm Netherland Eredivisie- Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
14.30pm German Bundesliga - Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich
22.00pm Mexico Liga Mx - Queretaro vs Club Tijuana

LTD FOR HT OR BACK OVER 0.5 FH GOALS
13.00pm Malta Prem - Sirens vs Mosta
14.00pm English Prem- Burnley vs Leicester City
16.30pm English Prem- Liverpool vs Man Utd
19.00pm Belgium Jupiler League - Waregem vs Genk
20.00pm Italy Serie B - Benevento vs Pisa
20.00pm Spain La Liga - Barcelona vs Grandada

LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1 (wait for odds to be below 2.5)
13.00pm Spain La Liga - Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
13.00pm Greece Football League- O Volos vs Trikala
13.30pm Netherland Eerste Division- Den Bosch vs Go Ahead Eagles
14.00pm English Prem- Burnley vs Leicester City
17.30pm Egypt Prem- Arab Contractors vs Al Ahly

[Richard Latimer]

Any questions ask away

[Martin]

Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently

493231 England Premier League 19/01/2020 16:30:00 Liverpool Manchester United
493087 Belgium Jupiler League 19/01/2020 19:00:00 Waregem Genk
493537 Argentina Superliga 19/01/2020 22:10:00 Independiente River Plate

Gary's Filter: FHG 81% SHG 87% at the moment

493159 Netherlands Eredivisie 19/01/2020 13:30:00 FC Emmen Heracles
493294 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 14:00:00 Lecce Inter
493405 Germany Bundesliga 19/01/2020 17:00:00 Paderborn Bayer Leverkusen
493296 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 19:45:00 Juventus Parma

Frode's Over 2.5 filter - Back over 2.5 at 15 mins trade out at HT. 69% chace of a goal between 15-45mins. 1.80 min odds ideally.

493333 Spain Laliga 19/01/2020 13:00:00 Betis Real Sociedad
493079 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 19/01/2020 13:30:00 Den Bosch G.A. Eagles
493294 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 14:00:00 Lecce Inter
493230 England Premier League 19/01/2020 14:00:00 Burnley Leicester
493293 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 14:00:00 Brescia Cagliari
493321 Turkey Super Lig 19/01/2020 16:00:00 Besiktas Sivasspor
493534 Spain Segunda Division B - Group 2 19/01/2020 16:30:00 Leonesa R. Union
493087 Belgium Jupiler League 19/01/2020 19:00:00 Waregem Genk
493296 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 19:45:00 Juventus Parma
493279 Mexico Liga Mx 19/01/2020 22:00:00 Queretaro Club Tijuana
493537 Argentina Superliga 19/01/2020 22:10:00 Independiente River Plate
493494 Mexico Liga Mx 20/01/2020 00:45:00 Santos Laguna Club Leon

LCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5

493333 Spain Laliga 19/01/2020 13:00:00 Betis Real Sociedad
493320 Turkey Super Lig 19/01/2020 13:00:00 Trabzonspor Kasimpasa
493079 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 19/01/2020 13:30:00 Den Bosch G.A. Eagles
493292 Italy Serie A 19/01/2020 14:00:00 Bologna Verona
493404 Germany Bundesliga 19/01/2020 14:30:00 Hertha Berlin Bayern Munich
493122 Greece Super League 19/01/2020 15:15:00 AEK Athens FC AEL Larissa
493124 Greece Super League 19/01/2020 16:00:00 PAOK Asteras Tripolis
493321 Turkey Super Lig 19/01/2020 16:00:00 Besiktas Sivasspor
493279 Mexico Liga Mx 19/01/2020 22:00:00 Queretaro Club Tijuana
493494 Mexico Liga Mx 20/01/2020 00:45:00 Santos Laguna Club Leon

[Richard Latimer]

Loads and loads to consider today although obv not everything will qualify and neither would I want it to haha!

DBNO = Down But Not Out - Expecting a comeback if the ELO fave fallls behind first
Early - Expecting a FHG and times to the right are ave first goal times (leave away teams fave with odds over 1.89)
DvG - David v Goliath - Expecting game to open out for 2h goals if odds on fave away from home losing, home fave of any description losing or match tied 0-0, 1-1. If match tied avoid offensive numbers between 1.4-2.199. These are listed to the right.
FL - Fashionably Late - As above in terms of match state at HT. Far right is ave 2h first goal time and time in which I will be entering the trade all being well.

[Martin]

Plenty Today!

Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently

493399 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 Dusseldorf SV Werder Bremen
493398 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 FC Augsburg Dortmund
493421 England League Two 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Plymouth Mansfield
493226 England Premier League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Norwich Bournemouth
493228 England Premier League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 West Ham Everton
493289 Italy Serie A 18/01/2020 17:00:00 Sassuolo Torino

Gary's Filter: FHG 81% SHG 87% at the moment

493206 England Championship 18/01/2020 12:30:00 QPR Leeds
493398 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 FC Augsburg Dortmund
493095 Scotland League Two 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Elgin City Stenhousemuir
493403 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 17:30:00 RB Leipzig Union Berlin
493154 Netherlands Eredivisie 18/01/2020 18:45:00 Feyenoord Heerenveen

Frode's Over 2.5 filter - Back over 2.5 at 15 mins trade out at HT. 69% chace of a goal between 15-45mins. 1.80 min odds ideally.

493206 England Championship 18/01/2020 12:30:00 QPR Leeds
493316 Turkey Super Lig 18/01/2020 14:00:00 Basaksehir Yeni Malatyaspor
493401 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt
493402 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 1. FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg
493399 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 Dusseldorf SV Werder Bremen
493172 England National League South 18/01/2020 15:00:00 St. Albans Maidstone
493170 England National League South 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Oxford City Braintree
493272 England National League North 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Southport Boston
493212 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Preston Charlton
493191 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Fylde Torquay
493207 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Birmingham Cardiff
493228 England Premier League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 West Ham Everton
493174 England National League South 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Welling Hungerford
493201 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Yeovil Hartlepool
493227 England Premier League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Southampton Wolves
493195 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Ebbsfleet Harrogate
493337 England League One 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Accrington Southend
493134 Belgium Proximus League 18/01/2020 16:00:00 KSV Roeselare Virton
493289 Italy Serie A 18/01/2020 17:00:00 Sassuolo Torino
493229 England Premier League 18/01/2020 17:30:00 Newcastle Utd Chelsea
493154 Netherlands Eredivisie 18/01/2020 18:45:00 Feyenoord Heerenveen
493276 Mexico Liga Mx 19/01/2020 01:00:00 Pachuca Guadalajara Chivas

LCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5

493206 England Championship 18/01/2020 12:30:00 QPR Leeds
493427 India Isl 18/01/2020 14:00:00 Atletico de Kolkata Goa
493316 Turkey Super Lig 18/01/2020 14:00:00 Basaksehir Yeni Malatyaspor
493398 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 FC Augsburg Dortmund
493401 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 14:30:00 Hoffenheim Eintracht Frankfurt
493197 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Notts County Dover Ath.
493213 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Sheffield Wed Blackburn
493337 England League One 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Accrington Southend
493207 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Birmingham Cardiff
493195 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Ebbsfleet Harrogate
493201 England National League 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Yeovil Hartlepool
493346 England League One 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Tranmere Ipswich
493098 Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Crusaders Larne
493212 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Preston Charlton
493412 England League Two 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Bradford Scunthorpe
493209 England Championship 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Derby Hull City
493418 England League Two 18/01/2020 15:00:00 Newport Swindon
493500 Spain Laliga2 18/01/2020 17:15:00 Ponferradina Rayo Vallecano
493202 England National League 18/01/2020 17:20:00 Barrow Bromley
493403 Germany Bundesliga 18/01/2020 17:30:00 RB Leipzig Union Berlin
493084 Belgium Jupiler League 18/01/2020 19:30:00 Gent Mouscron
493275 Mexico Liga Mx 18/01/2020 23:00:00 Monterrey Monarcas
493277 Mexico Liga Mx 19/01/2020 03:00:00 Club America U.A.N.L.- Tigres
493326 Australia A-league 19/01/2020 07:30:00 WS Wanderers Perth Glory

[A Former User]

Forgive the crudness of post as very busy and off to Norwich early in the morning.

I will be queueing Back O0.5 FHG @ 1.51/1.53 for 1pt

Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
FC Augsburg v Dortmund
Dusseldorf v SV Werder Bremen
Sassuolo v Torino
Feyenoord v Heerenveen

Biggest weak link for O2.5 goals is Sassuolo

Best of luck if you follow

[Richard Latimer]

Running late and realiseed I already missed a couple winners in Israel. Oh well.

Anyone who has been following what I do knows the score and anyone else feel free to ask.

After the horse has bolted is something I'm just looking at following @carl-smith-0's idea on the U2.5 where early goal has been scored. Not doing anything with it but made a filter from @Martin-Futter's unders galore refined with fhg stats added and using both normal and same type opposition.

As I said before, I think the idea for strat is an interesting one and has merit for further investigation.

[A Former User]

Todays Trades;

[Martin]

Nice to have some selections! Big weekend ahead.

Betgreen: LTD at start green up if there is a goal before 70mins if not take the loss. 90% strike rate currently

493324 Australia A-league 18/01/2020 08:30:00 Melbourne City Newcastle Jets

Gary's Filter: FHG 81% SHG 87% at the moment

493322 Australia A-league 17/01/2020 08:30:00 Adelaide United Melbourne Victory
493072 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Almere City Graafschap
493324 Australia A-league 18/01/2020 08:30:00 Melbourne City Newcastle Jets

Frode's Over 2.5 filter - Back over 2.5 at 15 mins trade out at HT. 69% chace of a goal between 15-45mins. 1.80 min odds ideally.

493322 Australia A-league 17/01/2020 08:30:00 Adelaide United Melbourne Victory
493426 India Isl 17/01/2020 14:00:00 Mumbai City Bengaluru
493074 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Eindhoven FC Helmond
493064 Portugal Primeira Liga 17/01/2020 21:15:00 Sporting Benfica
493324 Australia A-league 18/01/2020 08:30:00 Melbourne City Newcastle Jets

LCS - Late goal after 60 mins 74% of the time, 2 late goals 32% of the time - Min odds 1.5

493322 Australia A-league 17/01/2020 08:30:00 Adelaide United Melbourne Victory
493074 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Eindhoven FC Helmond
493073 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Breda Jong AZ
493075 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Excelsior Telstar
493072 Netherlands Eerste Divisie 17/01/2020 19:00:00 Almere City Graafschap
493080 Belgium Jupiler League 17/01/2020 19:30:00 KV Mechelen St. Liege
493274 Mexico Liga Mx 18/01/2020 03:00:00 Atlas Puebla
493324 Australia A-league 18/01/2020 08:30:00 Melbourne City Newcastle Jets

[james everard]

watchlist for tomorrow from my filters

BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS STRATEGY( wait for 30mins play at least 4 shots on target and back over 1.5 goals or wait for odds to reach at least 1.8, if no goal by 50mins back again and then again on 65mins if no goal by 75 trade out a loss, If a goal in this period green out)
19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division - Eindhoven fc vs Helmond
20.00pm Italy Serie B - Frosinone vs Pordenone

BACK OVER 2.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY( Wait for 15mins of play if 0-0 and odds are 2.0 or above back , then if still 0-0 on 30mins back again if no goal by ht trade out a loss . If a goal in this period either take liability out and let it run as a free bet or green out for equal profit)
08.30am Australia A League - Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division - Eindhoven fc vs Helmond

LTD FOR HT OR BACK OVER 0.5 FH GOALS( Enter the trade around the 15min mark and ideally ltd odds below 2.0 and back over 0.5 fh goal 1.8 or higher)
19.00pm Portugal Primera Liga - Fc Porto vs Braga
19.45pm English Championship- Fulham vs Middlesbrough

LTD IN THE SECOND HALF IF HT SCORE 0-0 OR 1-1( Inplay stats to look good and odds to below 2.5)
17.00pm Turkey Super League - Ankaragucu v Konyaspor

BACK OVER GOALS ON 60MINS ( I am paper trading this only as a test, testing to only trade if no second half goal at the point of entry and odds to above 1.6)
17.00pm Turkey Super League - Ankaragucu v Konyaspor
19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division - Eindhoven fc vs Helmond

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD( looking to only enter if the odds are below 2.5 if not back the Favourite)

19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division - Eindhoven fc vs Helmond( lay away)
19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division -Oss v Cambuur ( lay home)
19.00pm Netherlands Eerste Division -Breda v Jong AZ ( lay away)
19.45pm English Championship - Fulham vs Middlesbrough ( lay away)
20.00pm Spain La Liga- Leganes v Getafe ( lay home)
21.00pm Paraguay Primera - Guarani v San Lorenzo ( lay away)
23.15pm Paraguay Primera - River Plate v Sol de America (lay home)

[A Former User]

[A Former User]

@james-everard said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

A rather pleasant name for a strategy lol. Can you explain the entry and exit points you use please? and explain the filters

Do you have a filter set up for both home and away sides and overall matches have 65% or higher matches have less than 2.5 goals and kick off Betfair odds to be 2.0 or higher for under 2.5 goals?
Then you wait to see if a early goal , what time period are you looking for first 20-25mins? If no goal in this period no trade if a goal then back under 2.5 goals at the inflated odds and trade out on 45mins?

That's a lot of questions James.
What I do if an early goal is scored is obviously back the u2.5, for 30 mins or to the end of half, then cash out, if 2nd goal goes in, you can cash out for red, but myself I let it go till end of the half for a smaller red, very rare 3 goals goes in.
Of cause it all can be played about with, like dbl your stake for 15 mins, or let the trade go longer if the stats look good. It's a very simple strategy which can be messed around with. Hope this helps

[james everard]

and if a second goal before ht trade out at loss?

[james everard]

A rather pleasant name for a strategy lol. Can you explain the entry and exit points you use please? and explain the filters

Do you have a filter set up for both home and away sides and overall matches have 65% or higher matches have less than 2.5 goals and kick off Betfair odds to be 2.0 or higher for under 2.5 goals?
Then you wait to see if a early goal , what time period are you looking for first 20-25mins? If no goal in this period no trade if a goal then back under 2.5 goals at the inflated odds and trade out on 45mins?

[Richard Latimer]

@carl-smith-0 said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:

Big list of games for odds under 2.0 for u2.5 goals, need an early goal for big increase of odds. Or as Richard has now named it "Shot my bolt".
Some good results so far. Good luck.

No, it's shot their bolt haha. Shot their bolt already is perhaps a better fit haha

[A Former User]

Big list of games for odds under 2.0 for u2.5 goals, need an early goal for big increase of odds. Or as Richard has now named it "Shot my bolt".
Some good results so far. Good luck.