Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat
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Hi guys and gals, created a thread for our football selections as requested by members.
Rules:
Everyone can post their selections or shortlist for the day, and their results from previous day but you can only do one post a day. Any other chat will be removed so as not to clog up the thread. We still have the general football thread for that: http://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/475/2019-football-trading-thread -
Initial Trading Plan 15th March:
Back a first half goal at 15 mins if 0-0 (target odds 1.50+):
Aus - Adelaide 7.20am
Tur - Trabsonspor 1pmBack a late goal (After 60-65 mins) regardless of score (target odds 1.40+)
Aus - Adelaide 7.20am
Tur - Kayserispor 10.30am
Tur - Trabsonspor 1pm -
@karl-goulding said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:
More goals to come in the BATE Borisov game as they reach Half-Time.
I'd be bewildered if this stayed 2-2 for the rest of the match.
Neither of them can defend.
Well it took long enough but there you go!! 2-3
Hold this space its been chalked off.
Bummer
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More goals to come in the BATE Borisov game as they reach Half-Time.
I'd be bewildered if this stayed 2-2 for the rest of the match.
Neither of them can defend.
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Will keep an eye on FHG @ Weymouth today... My home team and they're having a decent season so far
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Nice injury time winner yesterday!
Today's Trading Plan:
Back a first half goal at 15 mins if 0-0 -
Kasimpasa v Goztepe 5pm
Slask Wroclaw v Rakow 7.30pmBack a late goal enter between 60-65 mins regardless of score -
Greuther Furth v Hamburger 5.30pm -
No time to post anything today but it's all on spreadsheet for anyone interested.
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No FHG anymore for a good while. Need to concentrate on the 2nd half goals. Team lays I'm 100% happy with:
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After a break posting i'm back for more punishment.
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@richard-latimer said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:
Small green yesterday from those I was able to get on.
Todays potentials assuming pre-match odds criteria/inplay match situations met:
Nice of you to upvote @Ryan-Carruthers but it was a horror show in general haha!
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Small green yesterday from those I was able to get on.
Todays potentials assuming pre-match odds criteria/inplay match situations met:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
All potentials for today. I don't imagine for a minute I'll be taking the FHG's in lower Scots leagues. for one thing I'm sure the liquidity will be gash. That said, I've left it on there for now.
There are plenty of odds on teams where the the goal ration seems to be skewed (dog scores more). If the odds haven't changed to reflect this by kick off I'll leave alone. Pahang is one. More goals to the dog FH yet Pahang are odds on. Left it there in case they drift over 2 but it's looking unlikely. These basically have to be checked once match is inplay to see if they qualify or not.
As always I use oddsportal to get my average odds because it gives odds from pretty much every bookie out there.
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@alan-steward said in Daily Football Selections Thread - No Chat:
Tonights FHG picks, apologies for only posting my phones screen shot but laptop is being repaired (hopefully back tonight).
Looking at the screen shot from left to right criteria 1 home FHG% criteria 2 is away FHG% & criteria 3 is overall FHG%... there are other layers but cant fit them all in.
Filter has been huffing & puffing of late but I'm still backing it myself but have added over 2.5 & 3.5 goals layer % greater than 0 so wont affect rest of the filter but might show an edge once some data is gathered.
Do your own due diligence before backing over 0.5 FHG @ 1.51 for 1pt
Here's to a green evening
Morning all, not a good evening overall with the FHG filter (other than Norwich winning
) Therefore I've decided to rest this filter for now and look to collect more data from the additional layers I've added and look for a better winning edge... I'll be back!!! -
Tonights FHG picks, apologies for only posting my phones screen shot but laptop is being repaired (hopefully back tonight).
Looking at the screen shot from left to right criteria 1 home FHG% criteria 2 is away FHG% & criteria 3 is overall FHG%... there are other layers but cant fit them all in.
Filter has been huffing & puffing of late but I'm still backing it myself but have added over 2.5 & 3.5 goals layer % greater than 0 so wont affect rest of the filter but might show an edge once some data is gathered.
Do your own due diligence before backing over 0.5 FHG @ 1.51 for 1pt
Here's to a green evening
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Potentials, nothing more. If they don't fit by kick off or by HT I'll cross them off my list and move on.
FHG I want ave odds on oddsportal.com to be no less than 1.2 for home team on the 1x2 (no limit for away) and no less than 1.16 on the over 0.5 FH.
If away team is odds on I want a minimum 80% scored by them. If home team is odds on I want minimum 70% scored by them. More evenly matched teams can hfor hoome ave a different spread of the goals.
2nd half goals I want a minimum 1.2 for home again on the 1x2 and no odds limit on away fave. I want minimum 1.10 on the over 0.5 FH. I want a 0-0 or 1-1 draw although I am tracking 0-1/0-2 where dog is winning and 1-0 where home dog winning.
Entry points are on the right based on ave goal times. For FHG I have taken the over 0.5 amount on left and deducted difference from 100% so 20 for an 80% over. Ave FG time of 24 - 20% would be 19.2. Rounded down is 19 minus 4 minutes to allow for delays on pens awarded etc. I aim to get in after 15 mins on that example.
For 2nd half I simply take ave 1st 2nd half goal times and deduct by the 4 mins. 60 mins means I aim to get in after 56 mins.
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