Runnerjp - My Journey!
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@jarratt-perkins I find it quite therapeutic - am I weird?!
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@ryan-carruthers its just looping every result and grabbing season data then last 5 .... will take a while but worth it i think
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@jarratt-perkins Sounds like my day!
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Hoping for a good day today!
Resetting everything so it's 0 and can work through the year
I am currently going through the last 3 years of data to allow me to check that the selections hold true over the previous 2 seasons and ensure I ain't just back fitting this season!
I will keep up with my current selections while I do this!
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@jarratt-perkins Lovely
I like this! -
1/1 today and a loss on SHG.
the SHG strike rate prev is good enough for recovery so lets see it kick in and win
I have tightened up my FHG selection as a through slipped through that really should not have done.
here are nyd selections!
working on anouther bot atm
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so today my FHG got hit a little again but my shg got another winner and 100% strike rate so far.
i will keep going with the fhg list but will look at the results and see if i am missing something. My first thought it could be just bad luck with ALOT of games played over last few days teams could have been saving themselves and not going full out at the start of the game like they usually do.
Tomorrows list:
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29/12/2019
Bit of a bad day yesterday where I managed to pick the only games in the National League without a FHG.
Overall still in profit and ready for a boost today!
I only went and forgot about loading the tips today and missed a fhg in the aussy game
Hope today is better or might have to review picks
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Well.... I seem to have picked the only games today in national league without a fhg
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28/12/2019
So the Christmas rush is over to back to basics again now and a routine! I will be resetting my profit loss ect on Jan first and starting with 0 to give me a month/ quarter break down as boxing day was not such a great day - 4 points took the tally down and 0.5 profit yesterday.
Looking at the bigger picture though it is in healthy profit and far greater than it would be on 1point a day!
@Gary-Brown - these are now all done with BF Botmanager. Still need to fill in my exec sheet manually while i code that part but should all be automated from start to finish by Jan 1st
I have a couple more starts to add but want to make sure these 2 are running clean first.
1 point is £2
What i was able to do is pull the xml file that the BF Bot creates to record bets and add them into my sql database so I should have a live stats feed soon that will give me my day to day / month and quarter break downs
On Dec 31st I will do a recap of what I have done and how I got to that point ect and my plan going forward.
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Hows it going Jarratt ive been interested in your posts etc so hope all is going well.
Are you trading just using the BF Botmanager mate or manually?
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Interesting. I understand the odds from that perspective but think that if you apply those odds after the game goes back in play in the second half they would alter. If you are waiting for the odds to drift out and they don't hit the price you want until 60 minutes then surely you need a better price again to allow for the elapsed time?
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@james BFBOT uses the cs market to work out the current score (best it can anyway) but i also have a sub with a inplay site that integrates with bfbot so works really well.
How I got to the 1.5 odds is I was looking at dripping 1.5 and 2.0 or ltd and cashing out. what i then relised is all i had to do was work out the strike rate I had then would be able to find the price required to break even.
so a SR or 82% would be (1/82)x100 and you have odds of 1.21 (you need to add commission to this) but you could have bet at those odds and should break about even at that strike rate.
so if you aim for 1.3 - you have profit! I aso noticed that games that re 0-0 at HT tend to have a smaller chance of more goals. Seems to be a dead lock that needs to be broken sometimes. now apply your 1.3 to 0-1 and 1-0 and your $$$$
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I am currently using Bet Angel to run my automation and it if fine for pre match stuff but when the game goes in play and I am relying on a certain score before I place a bet it is pretty ordinary and often does not place them or does not cash out. Does the bot manager software you use have an accurate way of keeping track of the score in play James?
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@jarratt-perkins said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
@james have you been recording goal times as will be interesting to see how many goals you have had in first 5/10 min
Unfortunately I haven't mate and only realized this was a bad idea after about 300 games. I have created a generic spreadsheet for all of my trades/paper trades from now on and will be collecting more in depth info.
I have another paper trade angle going at the moment of laying the HT score if 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 that looks interesting. So far
Trades - 209
Wins - 172
SR - 82.30%If you break that down a bit though. 0-0 at HT
Trades - 82
Wins - 62
SR - 75.61%0-1 & 1-0
Trades - 127
Wins - 110
SR - 86.61%I want a lot more info before I start putting money down but there is an 11% advantage if you leave out the games that are 0-0 at HT. I am perhaps looking to get involved if the lay price drops to $4 or $5 after HT but haven't been involved in the markets enough yet to know what the optimum price range is.
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@jarratt-perkins I love this
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@james have you been recording goal times as will be interesting to see how many goals you have had in first 5/10 min
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So quick update on xmas eve.
The bots worked really well over 3 days looking at 20 points profit!
SHG Is from my SHG list where the score is 0-1 and high chance of shg.
I will look to find a better way of posting selections but here are 26th list.
Only annoying thing is the markets are yet to be added so dont know if they will match or not yet..grr
I have a busy few days now as on boxing day its my lads 3rd birthday just to add to the madness of christmas so will be busy busy busy.
Have a great one all!
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@jarratt-perkins said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
OK so after much playing around - I have got my FHG to work!
The database does not always match so still some manual work in the AM but I will get there!
I had a good hard think about this and I will keep it simple ... when the over0,5fhg hits 1.5.... i will back!
Away at a wedding this weekend so will see if I can load 3 days worth!
Good luck mate. I will be interested to see how this goes as I have a filter for FHG that I back before kick off and over and over 299 selections it has 233 wins at a SR of 77.9%. Most importantly the POT is 3.65% after commission. I don't know if that is good or bad for a completely automated system and all those bets have come in the space of 4 weeks.
I am tossing up whether to introduce a $1.50 price in play back bet and see if that improves the POT. Will be interested to hear others thoughts on what POT is a realistic target for an automated system and whether its worth pursuing.
