Runnerjp - My Journey!
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Hello All,
So following on from Darrin's amazing blog I thought i would do the same to follow and help my journey as well.
I will be starting with a small bank of £300 — this is because I have read other blogs and spoke to other traders and if you can't get it right with a small bank you will NEVER get it right with a large one!
I am working on daily selections and then will look to create my bots to do a lot of the work for me and take away that emotion we all have impact our trades. All of which I will look to add in here to help others.
So what am I looking to do?
This is the first question we should be all asking "Why am I trading?". I got asked this from a very good trader who does this full time and the reason is if you do it to have fun, watch some football or horse racing and a bet makes it more exiting then go for it. I have been there ... done it! But what this means is you end up placing bet or trader one after another. End up chasing, lumping and trying to find bets/trades that don't actually make sense.
So I am here to make a second income (for now) to allow me to buy treats, extras and just enjoy life!
What is a good day?
So some of you on here might not agree but I set myself a daily target. I might not meet that target, i won't chase for it but if I hit it I stop... walk away and wait until tomorrow. My target is a 1% increase in my bank! I will only risk 1 point of my bank max as well. I got told this "If you set no goal, how can you achieve it!". I run in my spare time competitively and this means my personality and thought process is always gal orientated. The other thing to think about is how many times have you been up 2-3+ points by lunch then end up 2-3 point down because you kept hitting those trades.
Like I said this won't be for all but it's what i feel good with doing. Every 7 days I will reset my 1% on the bank and that will be my new goal (Note some days I won't make 1 point, it's my goal but if there are no trades, i won't take the risk to get the 1 point. I also could get over 1 point in a few trades to the odds' movement.)
So what's first?
I am currently working on my database for picks so at the moment I am manually researching and also looking at in play. I will post my daily results and also create a spreadsheet for tracking purpose.
Thanks all and go get that green!!!!
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We are back!!!
I have started all from £0 again because its a great starting point and I can see if no fans and lockdown has brought
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So after a shocking A league and nothing else around to go against it (I have found that through the day the win and loses work with each other rather basicly relying on a league atm) I have decided to pause the vm until the leagues resume.
Leave me plenty of time to concentrate on phase 2
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Might as well post this while things go quite - flip side I can work on my nags and also the modeling!
So below is where i stand.
Amagitalicised textedon is my best strat and just produces and produces - I may scale it up to 2% when the season goes in again and keep it there running with bank increase.
Phoenix working alot better with switches but nowhere near enough games to risk any more!!!
Lays is never going to be a smooth ride but profit is profit!
A Boring End will get a few selections but 100% so far.
Over all after my disaster of a drop... I was clawing it back - until postponing games!
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Very quick update as I really only want to do that weekly so not to flood post but .....
Burn is gone .. load of crap.
Replaced with this:
Main loss chart will still reflect the burn but I turned it off today as will a killer
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@john-folan always learning
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@jarratt-perkins said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
@Darri Rightly so pointed out that my profit and loss numbers didn't have a key to them so thought I would post this to explain -
The main chart shows the full bank's profit/loss whereas the others show a snapshot of how my day/week/month is going.
The whole loss of my bank comes from my Burn start!! I seem to think it was rightly named now lol
A schoolboy error on my part by thinking it would perform right from the off like it was doing in the test mode. I am still running this but with 10p stakes hence the 11p profit today already. I am running it alongside the same process but seeing how it fears with the under/overs rather than the CS. Time will tell.
Other then that if anything this will test how the other starts perform if one does burn! but i like how they are all performing in a positive peak
I will run these side by side - same picks - same selection but just a diff way of doing it....
Thought the name was hopeful!
That’s right that. If you are testing something at 5 or 10p. Then ramp it to £2. It hits a bad spell and you get walloped. If I think something has legs I increase in 10p increments to £2 then £1 increments to £10, then £5 to £50 and so on. I do this over a long period of time. If you do get hit on an increase there is never that much damage done to your confidence and you are probably more likely to wait it out than abandon a good strategy.
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@Darri Rightly so pointed out that my profit and loss numbers didn't have a key to them so thought I would post this to explain -
The main chart shows the full bank's profit/loss whereas the others show a snapshot of how my day/week/month is going.
The whole loss of my bank comes from my Burn start!! I seem to think it was rightly named now lol
A schoolboy error on my part by thinking it would perform right from the off like it was doing in the test mode. I am still running this but with 10p stakes hence the 11p profit today already. I am running it alongside the same process but seeing how it fears with the under/overs rather than the CS. Time will tell.
Other then that if anything this will test how the other starts perform if one does burn! but i like how they are all performing in a positive peak
I will run these side by side - same picks - same selection but just a diff way of doing it....
Thought the name was hopeful!
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@darri I was going to do percent but I want to also show growth from a £100 bank
Also my golden goose went to the s**t ... it seems to perform very differently in testing then live!!
I have lost a wopping £16 on the BURN start - crashing my profit to £4 .57 -> what a tit!!!
I am not killing the strat as its worked really well in testing but I have done what I SHOULD have done and thats starting with low 10p stakes instead on £1 - the diff would have been a loss of 1.60 compared to 15.
I wont change charts or reset as it is as is but lets see how it goes... i will x10 after week or 2 to see if it clawed its way back and its just a staking issue
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@jarratt-perkins awesome, what i was meaning by the numbers is are you 15% down or are you £15 down?
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@darri said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
@jarratt-perkins im probably asking a silly question here but i really like the layout for what your doing. The numbers posted so for example your month total are they % of bank or are you up £12.92 for the month? Im following this so to keep interested i suppose i should ask what they are going forward. Just because the numbers on the graph didnt equal the same? or have you been trading these longer than just march? so you had 22.25 total at start of day now its a -15.31 loss so should it not be 6.94 for month now instead of the figure shown? Once i know know what im looking at ill catch on and avoid silly questions
Very good question!!
I actually started on the 28th so the graph shows form then ... random i know but its pay day lol
Today = Todays overall.
Yester= yesterdays overall
Week= I just seen its its abit wrong - should be from the last saturday so today is the last sat but its gone to last week....
Month = Month -
@jarratt-perkins im probably asking a silly question here but i really like the layout for what your doing. The numbers posted so for example your month total are they % of bank or are you up £12.92 for the month? Im following this so to keep interested i suppose i should ask what they are going forward. Just because the numbers on the graph didnt equal the same? or have you been trading these longer than just march? so you had 22.25 total at start of day now its a -15.31 loss so should it not be 6.94 for month now instead of the figure shown? Once i know know what im looking at ill catch on and avoid silly questions
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Lots of posts today I know but just wanted to show this....
After the 3pm games took a bit of a hit due to lack of goals funny enough my gold-winning new start through a negative on the first day....
Its not always sunshine but if you look at the graphs they should go up against you need to ride the wave - sadly the burn hit some s**t score lines (thanks arsenal and fecking Southampton.
Still day is not over and always tomorrow to claww it back
I just wanted to add this as you need to take a hi some days - its going to happen and you cant do much about it. I now know these days - staying patient and not doing anything rash WILL save the bank
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As suggested below replaced back bets with the new one I called BURN!!! reason being this thing gets hot with selection lol
£1 stakes and risk vary due to the fact it uses the correct score market and slaps inlays and back all over the shop. Funny thing with this is a selected correct score market by mistake... turns out it was a great choice from early findings but I much prefer to try this in live environment as dynamics can change.
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@james I will follow you in that journey mate
I think betting/trading - who cares which you use and why ... you will find most of the "trades" here are bets but at the end of the day I don't really care what they are called as long as they make money
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@jarratt-perkins
I agree with those points. I am coming to grips with the fact that a lot of these pros are actually bettors as well and not traders. If you have a betting model that is break even can you adjust/use it to make a profit trading? Difficult to know the answer with a lot of back testing.
I have just ordered Andrew Macks Statistical Sports Modeling In Excel book as this side of trading betting interests me.
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@james said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
It's starting to look very good mate and stream lining everything is going to make your life easier. I have been doing a fair bit of listening/reading lately to a lot of pro punters about modelling and the thing I have taken from them is that simple models just do not work and you have to put together very complicated systems to make money.
I would be interested to get your and others thoughts on this as the models such as Ryan and Martins filter that get sent are not complicated and have been working well.
So I would it's correct that most simple models won't work long term due to the fact that all the value has been squeezed out on them. Poisson is a very basic model that just about everyone uses now when starting up moddeling and it is great but the bookies are using it and other on bf are that form the opening lines. Meaning the value has completely gone. BUT it does not mean it can't be profitable. Using it on the prem league for example won't work.... but what about some obscure league happening in the middle of the night where only a few pound is matched and the lines are all over the place!
Now this is getting to the relax and let it roll point I am starting to post more on the subject as I learn but I think with everything here it's about thinking outside the box and going against what everyone else is thinking or trying to do.
Look at johns Trobs as a Great example... doing dobs where not working great but applying trobs which most people wouldn't have done due to thinking getting less odds wouldn't work actually does because it's outside the box thinking.
Sorry about spelling and perhaps parts that don't make sence as I'm on phone and out and about
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@john-folan said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:
On the trob thing I spoke to BF Bot support, and it checks the race at 11 am and at the off to decide on the ground(Too late by then as already on. They are fixing this in the next update. To be honest I think it balances out. You swerved a loser the other day that mine picked up and I grabbed a winner where you missed out. Predicted going and actual going seems to be completely different sometimes as well. Especially moving from soft to heavy. Surely they wouldn't lie to people to keep them betting? ;).
The going is never going(sorry) to be an exact match I think, but as we move away from this drenching we have had since September it shouldn't matter anyway.
On another note, I'm loving this blog and am now following with interest!
I will stick with what the bot says as like you said... should balance out over time
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On the trob thing I spoke to BF Bot support, and it checks the race at 11 am and at the off to decide on the ground(Too late by then as already on. They are fixing this in the next update. To be honest I think it balances out. You swerved a loser the other day that mine picked up and I grabbed a winner where you missed out. Predicted going and actual going seems to be completely different sometimes as well. Especially moving from soft to heavy. Surely they wouldn't lie to people to keep them betting? ;).
The going is never going(sorry) to be an exact match I think, but as we move away from this drenching we have had since September it shouldn't matter anyway.
On another note, I'm loving this blog and am now following with interest!
