Runnerjp - My Journey!

[A Former User]

So everything is starting to move in the right direction currently and have a fair few bots now running in test mode.
The current two I have highlighted as passed my Testing part 1 stage are below:

This won't be run in live mode until I hit 1000 bets/trades. At which point I am going to review the results I am storing in my database and see if there are any obvious errors such as having friendlies in the mix or games over 4.5 ect.

This weekend should hammer home a lot of trades on the FT so will be on track for go-live Feb 1st!

I have several others that I am monitoring the uploading of my selections but need a week testing to make sure all the leagues are correct!

Last added bit of bonus is staking - Once I hit 1000 I am just going to check to see if the flat staking is right but I will get onto that later next week!

[A Former User]

@paul-keighley Good questions as I thought exactly the same on 10+ min and VAR but looking at the prices and the reds it does not seem to matter so much. Not changed a think from the first one (though I might need to). I will have more information Monday to decide.

Here is what the current look profit like...

FT bot i think I will wait until Monday (After weekend madness) and see what its like running with real money!

[A Former User]

Loving your work here Jarratt

I've realised I actually have that Unders scalping bot as I made all the Cid Marcos strats a while back. May have to dust it off!

So it's essentially just betting on the unders in certain games at 90mins (odds around 1.1) and leaving it run?
I like the idea of only when teams are two up, as you say they'll mostly just keep the ball. Have you made any other changes to the default? like have you kept in his total PI < 40 condition etc?

Oh and what about games with VAR or where there's like 10 mins added time? or have you just set a max price to combat this?

[A Former User]

@Martin-Dodd - Yes I am using a mix of sites.... Odds portal for odds and free sites like sofascore ect for the data

Spot on with the process! -> also setting up bots that use the live data provided by another site so then build up a mean so I can match in play with pre = gold!

Once I have something up and running I am moving onto phase 2.0 which will be the complex world of rankings using multiple methods. My aim here is to rank teams based on players!!! that way when a lineup is in ... I grab team... add players in and will give me a score of a team based on who is playing! but first - keeping it simple...ish

[A Former User]

@jarratt-perkins

Great thread...this is exactly the sort of thing I want to be able to do.

I need to do another more detailed read of the thread but from my first read it seems like the high-level process is roughly: Get Data into SQL database ---> run scripts to process and generate match lists for BFBM ---> load lists into BFBM --> run bots

Can I ask what data sources/subs you are using? I'm guessing you have fixtures, historical results and inplay data?

[A Former User]

So current update -

Scalp Bot is doing its job nicely even though it hit a few losers just keeps tapping away at profit and can't argue with only £2 risk. Not budged much in 3 days but I will keep this one going.

I am adding 2 along side it thought as had a few thoughts!

1. Scalp FT Overtime will be games where a team is up by 2 goals. They won't want to concede now and won't need to chase for any more goals so this should be a good one!

2. I am going to check SOT - low SOT will mean even less chance of a goal! This are about to go into testing now so lets see how these do!

My overs bots are going great - Note i set these up for 20p stakes instead of £2 on top 2 hence does not look as impressive!

Now for the reds - @carl-smith-0 the unders is not working atm - I have this running with the following:

Looking for a goal between 0 and 20min where the starting price for under2.5 was 1.8 or below. I want the overs price to 1.8 or more when the goal goes in.

I have set it to trade out if it goes up by 10% (red) or down by 10% (Green).
I can flip this over and say if I do the reverse its a great start or I have something wrong so will review today!

My SOT 2nd half needs work as thats a killer atm - once again could be reversed!

[Martin]

@jarratt-perkins love this thread, a great example of how to really maximize your own trading data to work on performance!

[A Former User]

A Coding Day!!

So I have my data and I have found some interesting things but want to go back a few more seasons to double-check its right .... So a bit of a wait while it pulls that data.

While on My lunch I finished of some nifty code that now works!
So .. Betfair Bot outputs a XML file into the c drive that stored all your betting data (Thats what you see in these screens):
(Bloody scalping got caught a few times!

So I wrote some code that checks for when this file gets updated and runs a script that pulls the data and experts it into my database!

This means I now have a live tracker of the bets/trades and can match it up to my database to see if anything is wrong - needs improving ect!

I am looking to go live on all this on Feb 1st! = £100 starting and the sky is the limit Over next few days I will run through my starts/ systems on the football then look to bring the Nags in after!

[A Former User]

@jarratt-perkins brilliant! Thanks again.

[A Former User]

@keith-dow said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:

@jarratt-perkins that’s a brilliant yet simple idea! Does your bot look for any specific criteria? I’m also assuming it’s the nearest market to the score that it’s scalping from. Cheers.

- Its here I have just made it simple (I don't like FH as Teams are still pushing for a goal and easy to get one). I am thinking of just having it when one team is in the lead as they often time waste during this time.

[A Former User]

@jarratt-perkins that’s a brilliant yet simple idea! Does your bot look for any specific criteria? I’m also assuming it’s the nearest market to the score that it’s scalping from. Cheers.

[A Former User]

@wayne-stone said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:

@jarratt-perkins

Hi @jarratt-perkins

Could I ask what your Full Time scalp strategy consists off?

Its rather simple - 90mins in ... No pressure from the inplay scanner ... back under

[A Former User]

@jarratt-perkins

Hi @jarratt-perkins

Could I ask what your Full Time scalp strategy consists off?

[A Former User]

OK so I am still drilling through some stats when I have time and also playing with the Automation before I start recording from day 1! - will be a week or 2 but at the moment I am happy I will be grinding away at profit

I Have been looking at pregames stats a lot but managed to scrape some data on Shots on Target and Shots on goal for a match. What they don't do is give me the half time stats but as a guide i just took the shots and divided by 2 and assume it will be close enough.

I am also looking at goals second half anything from 65min on ward (Odds are usually around 1.5 for a goal by this time as a guide.

I took stats from 18/19 and current season and totted up just the SOT and estimated anything 5 and over was good for a goal. What I didn't do was add anything else.

Right away I got a big result! Advg over those season just by this stat alone 568 Games and a 79% chance of a goal after 65...no mater the score! That's give me odds of around 1.26 to break even so aiming for 1.5 seems spot on!

So today I am setting up a bot just to look at games where the first half has had 5 SOT and see where we get to!

Other Bots I have is

• my FT Scalp that I have had before and worked really well - no idea why I stopped running it!

• Over HT scanner which searched for SOT ect and is Edited from CMS stuff on Youtube.

• SH bot that includes shot off target and corners - I will add just my SOT to compare to this one!

• CMs over 0.5 ht

*The Under bot that I am currently trailing that hit a red first go ... sods law! (I have done it so if it makes 10% it cashes out and if price drops by 10% it reds up!)

*CMs over 0.5 ht with super favs

and lastly CMs over 1.5 trade but i don't really like this so may get rid!

These will Stay for the week and see where they get to!

I have a A-league system (Basically FHG!) and A prem League one I am writing up atm!

I am going to start the a £100 bank as its simple ... Most people can afford and I really want to see it grow! If I can do that over 6 months then the 2nd half will be amazing!

[A Former User]

I have had 0 picks so far since last posting and wont have anything until Friday.

I am rather busy at work atm so not been able to do the setup I wanted to do. I have been thinking about it and I want to start my bank from scratch when I go live with the full automation process. This way I will be able to see if it works, it has any faults and also show everyone (including myself) sticking the the plan works!

Due to this It might be a week or 2 until I get the fully up and running but at the moment looks great!

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers said in Runnerjp - My Journey!:

@jarratt-perkins Did you look at anything around fav's at home and a SH goal?

I have a feeling there's something in it, like 1.90 or below and a goal in the SH.

I have 1472 games below 1.9 (Having played 5 games and from sept to now) and 1199 - 81% strike rate so anything with odds over 1.25 would break even

SO as a guess, I say last 70min you should get 1.5 for another goal ishhh - 801 games and out of those 527 had the goal so 65% so break even.

Good starting point!

[Ryan]

@jarratt-perkins Did you look at anything around fav's at home and a SH goal?

I have a feeling there's something in it, like 1.90 or below and a goal in the SH.

[A Former User]

New Year - The Start!!

So after filtering out data and spending a month playing around with it I decided upon cleaning my database up and adding a few more stats and increasing over the last 3 years. This will give me a sight of how it looking season upon season and as previously mentioned prevent back fitting!

Currently, it is collecting the data and will take around 24 hours I think.

So Far this year I have had a 100% strike rate!

Nothing has come up on my FHG list for tomorrow but here are games that if the home team is losing at HT I expect an SHG.

I had nothing yesterday or today come up so most of my free time has been the database.

[A Former User]

02/01/2020

Back to work today so once again cant really access my server unless on phone and its hard work getting round it.

What I can see is yesterdays day was green - FHG came in and also just 1 loser so far on SHG.

I will try get selections up later for tonight if i have any and do a full round up and future focus tomorrow when I am WFH!

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers - I am automating that bit mate.

I do enjoy going through the spreadsheets looking at the stats!