Asian Market Betting 19/20
-
Over the summer myself and a friend have been working on a model finding value in the Asian handicap and goal line markets. He has used it for years specifically on French Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 games for the Asian handicap only, but we bashed our heads together and are looking to take on the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Greek Super League and Turkish Super Lig this season on both the goal lines and the Asian handicap. Very much in test mode as the season starts, but I’ll share our bet tracker and if all goes well it would be good to add more leagues on. This is where the community comes in. If this takes off and proves profitable, we could add more leagues with the help of the community and therefore cover more ground and find more value.
I’ll update this thread as the season progresses. Friday see’s the first fixtures in 2. Bundesliga and Ligue 2. I won’t be putting any money down yet, just tracking how we get on. -
Last weekend action. A shaky start but only down 2.5 pts and no real money lost yet as we feel our way into the season. Ligue 1 added this weekend and Turkey and Bundesliga to follow next weekend, so the volume will increase soon.
-
Not much this weekend, quite a few that were borderline so we will monitor to see if they come into value
-
First weeks results. No money put down yet, this is a fictional P/L. Will be pricing up the weekends games today.
-
Here is the file we are using to come up with the teams ratings. This one is for 2 Bundesliga only. These rating are then fed into the model. The model requires a rating for home and away team, expected goals, and also home advantage rating. To start the season i am using an average of the past 3 seasons until this campaign starts to take shape. We can also adjust our ratings based on knowledge of the teams as the season progresses.
-
That being said i dont know the model we would be using so cant say if the league would suit it just yet
-
@ryan-carruthers if the general assumption is outside the old firm its a bad league to trade/bet i would differ. Im not defending it as a quality league to watch but to trade i would defend it as i think the prices on offer are often misaligned once data is put against it.
-
@darri What do you think makes it underrated?
-
@simon i think the spl is underrated for trading/betting. Its probably my main league i focus on, but watching to see how you get on, def following this with interest mate
-
@simon Spot on mate.
-
@ryan-carruthers totally agree. I think they’d act as a good sense check against our own rating too, which early in in the season can potentially be a bit unreliable. I’ll post up how we come up with them and a link to the sheet we’re using too when I get a chance.
-
@simon got to be something in it surely?! Not sure on how it would work but has to be something there.
-
@ryan-carruthers good thinking Ryan. Maybe worth tracking the ELO of each team alongside our own ratings then.
-
@simon I wonder if there's something we can do with ELO as well linked with the differences for differences on the handicap markets.
-
@darri how were you getting on with the SPL? I've never tried to make any money betting it as have the impression its really unpredictable (outside the old firm anyway). No data to back this assumption up though.
Yeah i think they are great markets as you can be savy with which line you choose, and like you say, they are the chosen market of many a pro. Would be great to get you on board if we can prove the models profitability. -
On a side note, does anyone know where I can find the SP for the goal lines at Bet 365? We are using betexplorer to track these for the AH market, but they don't show the goal line for Bet365 on there.
-
Weekends results below. Interesting and expected that the lines that moved in our favour were a lot more succesful than the lines that moved against us. 2 more to go tonight, then we'll update the ratings and go again for next weekend.
-
@Simon iv been trying to tackle this market since last season. I was more angled towards SPL. I think i stopped tracking after the winter break and just forgot to continue tracking for data. A lot of full time pro gamblers use that market so i assume it should be able to be exploited. I would jump on and help if this does become a community project.
-
@simon Very interesting, 6% will do nicely as well - better than the bank!
-
@ryan-carruthers nice one Ryan! My friend has been making 6% ROI on average using this model on the handicap lines for the past 6 seasons on French Ligue 1 and 2, so it certainly works in those leagues. The model produces prices for the handicap lines, as well as the goal lines. He has never bet the goal lines before, so the aim is to explore if the handicap line works on other leagues, and if we can get the goal line model profitable too. If so then this could potentially be rolled out on a much bigger scale.
