John’s Horse Trading Resources

A lot of stuff seems to go missing in the HRT, especially now it has livened up. I will post anything useful here. Links/files etc.

I will post the links etc in the first comment(this one. They will then be referenced in the relevant comment if applicable. Feel free to question away.

GENERAL RESOURCES

This calculation will work out your drawdown.

=MIN((Y2-MAX($Y$2:Y2))/MAX($Y$2:Y2),0)

You need to apply it to your running total column as I have done in the example below. Make your first row your starting bank. This then needs to be applied to the whole column.
0_1655534157717_drawdown 1.JPG

This calculation will then show you your highest bank drawdown. It needs to be applied to the relevant column.

=MIN(AH:AH).

It will then give you a largest drawdown figure like this.
0_1655534404531_drawdown2.JPG

0_1655534259505_c896b50f-b58d-451c-b267-2d893e883461-image.png

Courtesy of Martin Futter

Odds Probability Table to calculate odds against strike rate

https://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.html

Courtesy of Matt Wood

If anyone uses google sheets and you have your filter S/R, then in the cell next to it put this:

=1/(E16/100)/100 (e16 being the cell with the % S/R)

Should auto calculate the odds required (not counting for commission)

Courtesy of Richard Latimer

Useful Trading Links
www.bettingtools.co.uk
www.aceodds.com

Estimate Losing Runs
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thebetinvestor.com/guide/how-to-estimate-your-longest-losing-sequence/amp/

HORSE SPECIFIC RESOURCES

Horse Software Tips
Always run two versions of your strategy. One called results with all your filters and one called qualifiers with variables like number of runners removed. You can then filter these manually or on your bot as they change a lot.

The Original Maria Staking Thread from 2005.

http://web.archive.org/web/20080731055615/http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html

Essential Horse Trading Links.

https://www.cheltenhambettingoffers.com/articles/glossary/

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/horse-racing-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing (Information on the days racing and past results)

https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/ (Going and non runners for the day)

Important Definitions for Inrunning trading
0_1648458071672_Trob and Dob Definition.JPG

Dream maker 62’s LTB
0_1630313592661_B4EBB035-613E-4FF4-BB9E-873571F752E8.jpeg

My DOB/TROB/WIN rules
0_1630313687634_2651B086-0FDD-4585-A667-0158FECD6874.jpeg

last edited by John Folan
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Level 151

That’s really useful thanks! So you manually exclude any Class 1 and 2 handicap races?

Presumably on the TROBS you get a lower strike rate but obviously it’s a 2/1 bet. What sort of SR would be talking?

Level 8

@joseph-henderson said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

Also, would someone be able to explain what 'HCAP 3-5 and Group 3 only' means in terms of filtering the selections? Thanks

Hi mate sorry meant to answer your other question yesterday but I’ve been running around like a nutter.

You should get about a 60% dob rate on these. The real money is in the trob though.

HCAP 3-5 is Handicap Races only. Class 3 to 5. Group 3 is a sub class of Class 1 racing. There aren’t many so you can ignore them.

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Level 151

Also, would someone be able to explain what 'HCAP 3-5 and Group 3 only' means in terms of filtering the selections? Thanks

Level 8

Hi John. What strike rate do you expect/aim for when using the Inrunning filter for DOBs outlined above? Thanks

Level 8

@karl-pick said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan ...hoping you can help?
I have scanned through various questions, answers and searches but cannot seem to find a profit/loss tracker?
I have one for football, but I am New to the Horse Racing Side and cannot find one anywhere? Can you point me in right direction if possible?

Don’t think there is a specific one. I normally just copy and paste my results into a spread and run it myself.

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Level 151

@John-Folan ...hoping you can help?
I have scanned through various questions, answers and searches but cannot seem to find a profit/loss tracker?
I have one for football, but I am New to the Horse Racing Side and cannot find one anywhere? Can you point me in right direction if possible?

Level 24

Updated the OP with how to calculate bank drawdown's in a spreadsheet.

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Level 151

@ryan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@holly I remember this strategy - didn't it take Twitter by storm a few years back?

It did and if you have the patience it still works. The details are in the first post on this thread.

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Level 151

@holly I remember this strategy - didn't it take Twitter by storm a few years back?

Pro Trader
Level 193

@john-folan said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@holly said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@john-folan Hi John . I’m new here and have just been reading through your posts, this could have a really obvious answer and you may have posted elsewhere but I’ve not come across it (yet)
You mentioned you would look to Adapt this slightly with use on the new software just wondered in what alterations you would make?
Secondly , if it does go against you , in your opinion how many ticks would you set your stop loss at? Holly

Hi Holly. I assume you are talking about my Trobs or are you talking about the lay to backs? The trobs are set and forget and with the lay to backs I don’t have a hard and fast rule with price it’s more with how the horse is running. If it’s running differently to how it normally does(I:E it’s started to frontrun). I dump it.

As for adapting it. More using different ratings like pace and or would be the only changes. Haven’t looked into it yet, but it is on my todo list.

Hi @John-Folan , I didnt realise it wouldn't tag on to your post , it was in relation to your post on dreammaker62's L2B strategy

Level 4

@stephen-oleary Hi Stephen , thank you for that!
I have just seen that my post didn't reply to the actual post of Johns. I was supposed to replying to his post relation to dreammaker62's L2B strategy

Level 4

@holly said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@john-folan Hi John . I’m new here and have just been reading through your posts, this could have a really obvious answer and you may have posted elsewhere but I’ve not come across it (yet)
You mentioned you would look to Adapt this slightly with use on the new software just wondered in what alterations you would make?
Secondly , if it does go against you , in your opinion how many ticks would you set your stop loss at? Holly

Hi Holly. I assume you are talking about my Trobs or are you talking about the lay to backs? The trobs are set and forget and with the lay to backs I don’t have a hard and fast rule with price it’s more with how the horse is running. If it’s running differently to how it normally does(I:E it’s started to frontrun). I dump it.

As for adapting it. More using different ratings like pace and or would be the only changes. Haven’t looked into it yet, but it is on my todo list.

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Level 151

@holly Hi holly im not sure what strategy your talking about and @John-Folan may have a different opinion on this but depending on the price you are taking i run my stop loss like this.(I very rarely trade horses under $4 or pound)

$4 - $6 stop loss 10 ticks
$6.01-$10 stop loss 8 ticks
$10.01 or higher 6 ticks

All trades that dont hit the exit point i exit at 5seconds(incase im not matched gives me a few seconds to get matched) to post time unless a race delay. I use this method on all my automation. When im trading without automation and can notice the trends etc i usually give a few extra ticks if i think the price will come back into profit.

It is common a trade goes against you 5-10 ticks 3min out and comes back into profit 1min out. Just got to look at the trends over the past 10min and the order of money within the top horses and you selection. I have read post on the software forum i use of people exiting at 5 ticks and the trade swings and they could have made profit.

I traded a horse only yesterday that was 5s to 7s up and down all day 5min out i backed at 7s he went to 10s and in the last minute back to 5s because of his trend i stayed in jumped at 4.20 but i follow my rules and exited 5sec out at 5.50.

Not sure if that helped with the trade @John-Folan is talking about but im sure will help with any future swing trading.

If its his DOB strategy its set and forget there is no stop loss.

Level 15

@john-folan Hi John . I’m new here and have just been reading through your posts, this could have a really obvious answer and you may have posted elsewhere but I’ve not come across it (yet)
You mentioned you would look to Adapt this slightly with use on the new software just wondered in what alterations you would make?
Secondly , if it does go against you , in your opinion how many ticks would you set your stop loss at? Holly

Level 4

@brendan-t-martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@john-folan Makes sense ☺

Glad it does. It did in my mind but you know. Its me... 😉

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Level 151

@brendan-t-martin said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@john-folan FYI. In your slow horses criteria, I don't think you can put the BSP as an option in the rule builer, as you are entering before the start of the race, you don't know what the BSP is yet.

Yeah I know but it was including some that went off a fair bit below for some reason. This gets it as close as dammit

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Level 151

@john-folan FYI. In your slow horses criteria, I don't think you can put the BSP as an option in the rule builer, as you are entering before the start of the race, you don't know what the BSP is yet.

Level 6

I have added my Slow Horses Strategy settings to the first post in this thread.

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