BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Out to 5 before lunch.... that'll do nicely
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Laying the draw at 3.6 in the match between Sri Lanka and New Zealand. The wicket at Galle is a real bunsen burner and only one of the last 15 matches there have finished in a stalemate.
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Draw price tends to do that when people think there is decent value, 1.9 doesn't represent good value if we get 300 overs of play. Certainly no harm holding until tomorrow, imagine they will make some overs up over the next 4 days too.
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@luke-ridger Maybe not 1.5 exactly but we've all seen the draw price do ridiculous things in the past once the game starts and its tipping it down! And it's not exactly clear for the following 4 days either!
Think the best option is still to hold for now and just keep a sharp eye on the price throughout the day and flip positions the second it starts to move back out as you say. Will monitor overnight and in the morning to be safe.
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Not sure you get 1.5 , i think we all know it's a washout and the price is odds on with potentially 4 longer days of play, you might find the market drifts hard tomorrow afternoon.
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@richard-futter yeah followed the money good green to kick off
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For early risers, worth noting that the Sri Lanka v New Zealand Test - which should be an extremely closely contested affair - is being streamed live by Betfair Live Video from 5.30 am.
Should be a cracking day even if, as looks likely, the first day of the Lord's Test is a washout. We have West Indies-India in an ODI in the afternoon, and Essex v Middlesex in the T-20 Blast in the evening.
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@richard-futter said in 2019 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@paul-keighley Great trade... puts you in a tremendous position to trade the rest of the match
I'm actually annoyed at myself as I'd checked the prices the day before and the draw was around 4.0 and i'd seen the forecast but seemed too good to be true so I left it another day!
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@paul-keighley Great trade... puts you in a tremendous position to trade the rest of the match
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Tomorrow is currently looking like only full day wash out if the forecast can be believed.
I got in on the draw at 2.89, current plan is to hold until close tomorrow after the expected wash out and hopefully around 1.5 as Richard says, and then flipping it to lay the draw and the most likely tumble of wickets come Thursday morning. then play it session by session depending on forecasts. -
@nathan-bennett said in 2019 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
may go odds on if next to no play weds
Already odds on..... tempted to lay the draw now, but if it rains all day tomorrow wouldn't surprise me if it went near to 1.5. Definitely worth opposing if that's the case.
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$1.93 for the draw looks like value pre match ?
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Ignore Galle forecast, normally always wrong
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may go odds on if next to no play weds
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Draw odds @ 2.30. Forecast looks OK from Thursday onwards. Could get some really cheap prices if it rains on Wednesday morning.
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@james-woodroffe yeah slowly been following the money #something
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@nathan-bennett both Lords and the test at Galle starting Wednesday look pretty bleak.
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rain around lords weds thurs ?
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Cheers all for the insight how good test cricket
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Lost some of the profit today - but still a very good Test for trading overall. Think I was guilty of some wishful thinking today!
