BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe from reading yours, Darri's and Nathan's posts I noticed you all said wait 10 overs and then back the batting team 1st innings if they are projecting a decent score. The rest seem variations depending on how the chasing team respond.
Would it be fair to say that waiting 10 overs, assessing the situation and back the batting side is a good introduction to cricket trading?
I'm a fan of watching cricket and have got involved previously but it's definitely more gambling and after reading Darri's post I see I do everything he said not to! Fanboy trades, loads of micro trades, etc.
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@dj-reid mate you can use 180 as a pretty decent barometer for what’s considered a good above par T20 score. I’ve been thinking about this this morning. I was also thinking after reading some stuff today that I could have been a little clearer on.
I don’t jump in and out of the market in T20’s and as was mentioned over on Darri’s blog he worked with me on my strategy and I’ve tweaked it a little for myself but I’m only really looking at a maximum of 3 trades during a match.
Is Team A on track for 180 around the 10 over mark?
Is Team B on track to chase it down at the 10 over mark? (Whatever the target)
Is Team B on track to get dam close with 5 overs to go needing no more than 39 from the last 3.
There also MUST be set batsman at the crease I’ve learnt the hard way about “Fanboy” trading when I first started trading cricket and letting batsman get set. Watch the markets today and I reckon it will be a safe assumption that RCB will shorten considerably in price when both AB De Villiers and Glenn Maxwell come into bat and haven’t faced a ball.
Most T20 venues provide good decks, the standard of T20 wickets in the UAE has improved considerably. Also if I enter only once for a match and it’s the 15th over of the chase and the chasing side is needing 60 to win with wickets in hand and a set batsman I’m hoping the batting side have been written off and you can get great odds because it’s a great way to make nice decent profit, however if I’ve got it right I’m always out before the last over because if they need 39 from 3 it’s the 18th or 19th over they’ve turned the game on it’s head. I hope that makes more sense and I haven’t just rambled
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@dj-reid Yep I’m looking for average total batting first at a particular venue and average WINNING total at that venue more so, so looking at what is considered PAR for that particular venue. . @Darri explained it perfectly on his blog page this morning. I’m looking for team A (setting team) to be somewhere in the region of 2-3 for 75-80 after 10 overs. Most (especially franchise) T20 sides will target 100 in that last 10 overs. If the team batting first makes 180 and that’s a better than average winning score I’ll hold that position for the first 3 overs of the chasing sides PowerPlay. If you’re chasing and suddenly 2-10 chasing 181 you’re up against it and from a trading perspective can wait until both new batsman are settled before greening up and perhaps taking a 2nd position later in the chase if team B are back in the game. I’ll wait tho till both are set because 2-10 can easily become 3-17.
Likewise if the chasing team is 0-30 after 3 I’ll get out and reevaluate later.Thanks
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@dj-reid Yep I’m looking for average total batting first at a particular venue and average WINNING total at that venue more so, so looking at what is considered PAR for that particular venue. . @Darri explained it perfectly on his blog page this morning. I’m looking for team A (setting team) to be somewhere in the region of 2-3 for 75-80 after 10 overs. Most (especially franchise) T20 sides will target 100 in that last 10 overs. If the team batting first makes 180 and that’s a better than average winning score I’ll hold that position for the first 3 overs of the chasing sides PowerPlay. If you’re chasing and suddenly 2-10 chasing 181 you’re up against it and from a trading perspective can wait until both new batsman are settled before greening up and perhaps taking a 2nd position later in the chase if team B are back in the game. I’ll wait tho till both are set because 2-10 can easily become 3-17.
Likewise if the chasing team is 0-30 after 3 I’ll get out and reevaluate later. -
@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@dj-reid no mate it depends on the venue. I just used 180 as an example.
Thanks for clarifying.
So how are you calculating your par scores? Using averages from those grounds previous games?
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CSK and NZ woman classic
Pitty need sleep so much on ha -
@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
T20 PLAN OF ATTACK.
I will be looking to work around a par score strategy for the upcoming IPL and T20WC.
Working on what is considered to be par at the 3 venues to be used I’ll look to enter at the earliest around the 10th over give or take. This strategy was shown to me at the start of the last IPL which was also held in the UAE in 2020 (not counting the first half of this years.)
The advantage and what I like about this strategy is that you’re not entering early and if the team batting first has a disaster you are not already in the market staring at Red. Like @Nathan-Bennett said in his post and as was taught to me I will only enter if no more than 3 down, with 1 settled batter at the crease and power hitters in the shed still to come.
Ideally we are getting 1.80+ when entering and if the batting side scores in excess of 180 I will hold my position. Chasing 180+ is never easy and 9RPO can very quickly balloon to 10.5-11.0 if the chasing side loses a couple early in the PP.
Obviously things can turn quickly in T20 and the batting first team may be in a strong position when I enter and if it goes pear shaped in the last 8-10 overs then I’ll take the red and reassess during the chase.
TEAM TOTAL - Something I did sparingly
in the past but did have some success with. I did it sparingly because I’m absent minded and a lot of the time just forgot. This is a strategy I will be looking at this year thanks for the reminder @Nathan-Bennett.
Normally also I’ve hopefully greened up by the back end of the innings or taken a 2nd position if I think the chasing side has a chance to reel in the target. Again it’s the same theory as the first dig (no more than 3 out at 10 overs if that’s the entry point req run rate 8-10. With wickets in hand I will assume a chasing team can get 39 from the last 3 overs. If the RRR is over 13 with 3 to go I’ll bail.May be being thick here, are you using 180 as the par score?
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@tom said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Go on Zimbabwe for the 1.07 lay
Boom!!!
more than makes up for yesterday scratch day and can leave the IPL alone for today -
This post is deleted!
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Go on Zimbabwe for the 1.07 lay
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Entered here for O 134.5
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Small Back csk o121.5
Usually enter these late
Still might again -
Blimey! Not a great start at all for CSK
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Lay NZ WOMAN
Will re lay again lower odds and when spin comes on
Hoping we see a few wickets 1.6-1.8 be niceBANG spin 1.16-1.45 already
Weird fruits didn’t review oh well -
@james-woodroffe again really helpful to read your approach thank you for sharing
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T20 PLAN OF ATTACK.
I will be looking to work around a par score strategy for the upcoming IPL and T20WC.
Working on what is considered to be par at the 3 venues to be used I’ll look to enter at the earliest around the 10th over give or take. This strategy was shown to me at the start of the last IPL which was also held in the UAE in 2020 (not counting the first half of this years.)
The advantage and what I like about this strategy is that you’re not entering early and if the team batting first has a disaster you are not already in the market staring at Red. Like @Nathan-Bennett said in his post and as was taught to me I will only enter if no more than 3 down, with 1 settled batter at the crease and power hitters in the shed still to come.
Ideally we are getting 1.80+ when entering and if the batting side scores in excess of 180 I will hold my position. Chasing 180+ is never easy and 9RPO can very quickly balloon to 10.5-11.0 if the chasing side loses a couple early in the PP.
Obviously things can turn quickly in T20 and the batting first team may be in a strong position when I enter and if it goes pear shaped in the last 8-10 overs then I’ll take the red and reassess during the chase.
TEAM TOTAL - Something I did sparingly
in the past but did have some success with. I did it sparingly because I’m absent minded and a lot of the time just forgot. This is a strategy I will be looking at this year thanks for the reminder @Nathan-Bennett.
Normally also I’ve hopefully greened up by the back end of the innings or taken a 2nd position if I think the chasing side has a chance to reel in the target. Again it’s the same theory as the first dig (no more than 3 out at 10 overs if that’s the entry point req run rate 8-10. With wickets in hand I will assume a chasing team can get 39 from the last 3 overs. If the RRR is over 13 with 3 to go I’ll bail. -
@nathan-bennett thank you for sharing, as a newbie it’s great to read what people think about in matches
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T20 SOME ENTRIES I LOOK FOR
Back batting team first INNS
After 8-10-12 overs if only 2-3 down and seeing a few settled strokes / timing
Odds 1.8+ or above SP
Look to close this position end INNS or if think its a winning score @1.2 favRuns markets Back overs late in INNS 6-4 overs to go
Laying under 1.11
Especially the bowling team 2nd INNS even more so late in games
We all know this one and its crazy good when market is on your side
This point of trading becomes feel belief in whos at the crease stats help and v bowler stats pressure can be the intangible factor to counter all stats , helps more so using this sort of trade when already have banked green
Mentally feels like eliminating the gambling aspect and hope somewhatTry to avoid laying batting teams
but couple entries to lay low odds at times is
when chasing a low total
seems odd too
However don't know if its cockiness from the chasers thinking its all said and done , sometimes wickets are just thrown away
Another can be
If batting teams well on top late in there first INNS and super low fav sometimes a lay here is ok as above wickets can be thrown away but mainly whats on your side is the chasing power play to play fearless and shoot the market upMore often than not i try to free roll the low odds trades by removing liability at double or triple the entered price
[email protected] lay [email protected] back [email protected] styles
and manage from there#alwayslearning
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Poor choice from Somerset to bowl first in my opinion, Kent have won 80% of matches when batting first and average 169 runs with Somerset averaging around 159 batting second.
45 needed from 10 balls, safe to say well done Kent
Scratch day for trading but a great day of cricket
Roll on the IPL
