BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@jonathan-busch hi mate, I’m not sure what your style of trading is for sure but I can gather that you back teams and it sounds like you are forming a solid opinion that the team will win.
Unless the team you are backing to win always look like this is going to be the case the market will often move against you until they start to do the do which I find can be a bit of a dangerous position as if they take too long you can be too far away from profit point.
Have you thought about only backing the team for smaller periods of the game, it might alleviate your ladder anxiety and you may find you can turn over multiple trades.
I find it easier to go against the opposing team but I am going to start paper trading backing written off teams with high odds shortly to see how I fair with this also.
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I'm still figuring things out at this stage and using small stakes, so cant say 'x amount of the bank' but I effectively have 2 stake sizes. One is a half stake which I will put in when not super confident or if I think I will get more value later on to put the other half on. And a full stake when I am confident and happy with the odds. Maybe when I get more confident and better at picking up on value, I will stick to using a full stake only.
After that I actually try not to follow the odds too closely and minimise the ladder as I find it distracting and messes with my head with the odds flying round, especially as they go red, because they can just as easily come back to green, but cause me to have a panic exit. If what I expected to happen, isn't happening, then I will pay more attention to the odds for an exit.
Maybe I do need to have a set stop loss, as minimising my losses will have a significant effect on profitability
I tend to exit at 1.02. I have been wondering if I should exit at 1.05 as it might free up my stake to get back in if odds shoot back up again.
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I'd be interested to hear how people stake in T20, the ultra defensive traders may disagree with my way but i've never had an issue.
Before entering a trade I assess where I believe the odds will move should a trade go against me and will work out how much I can stake to allow this movement to be 1% of my bank. Depending on the odds I can sometimes have 5% total risk in a trade but I will never allow it to run past 1-1.5% before cashing out.
Doing this allows me to see bigger returns when trades do go as expected but you have to be super disciplined with exiting trades, I never hang on expecting them to turn around, I will just take the loss and get back in when the opportunity arises, which is almost always does.
Should be some good opportunities in the ENG v IND and Sri Lanka v Nambia games 2nd innings
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@tom said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Just to add some more to this to give a bit of depth to how I trade T20 games.
I keep track of player performances and look for player head to head stats before the game. I will also look into the ground stats. I’ll then take note of the weather as well as having a look on twitter to see if I can get any info on the boundary line from fan photos.
From this I’ll asses what I believe to be a par score for the ground before waiting for the toss so I can get an idea of what I think is going to happen during the match.
I usually only trade in play for T20 but I will often Dutch top batsmen if the odds allow.
When the match goes in play I will usually wait until the second innings, there is the occasional exception to this rule but I like the speed I can get in and out during the second innings so I try to keep it that way, I’ll often not watch the first innings.
During the second innings I look for two things only, change in momentum and value. I find that the market will often over react to wickets and boundaries in T20 especially favouring the favourites. Often either of these instances will cause an over reaction in the market providing value.
I’m then looking for a change in momentum, if a boundary or a good over but the required run rate is going to be a slog for the chasing team we usually see big swings shortly after.
If it’s a wicket but the required run rate is easily manageable and I rate the remaining batters then I’ll also get in here expecting another big swing.
I’ll always be defensive with these trades and take a loss if required as there are usually ample opportunities to get back in.
I will also never hold a trade if I have any risk, a jump from 3.5 to 7 is plenty and can often be repeated rather than holding on.
Thanks for this, this is great insight!
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@jonathan-busch bang were massively over favoured in the market, I’ve been keen on Scotland and even with Richie Berrington not putting in a score Chris Greave pulled it out of the bag for them yesterday and was deserving of man of the match.
There were at countless lay opportunities on Bang in their innings yesterday
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@tom Tuned in 2 overs into the chase and Scotland were at $11 (Bangladesh 1.10). I was expecting them to have posted sub 120 score. 140 still probably sub par but still value
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Just to add some more to this to give a bit of depth to how I trade T20 games.
I keep track of player performances and look for player head to head stats before the game. I will also look into the ground stats. I’ll then take note of the weather as well as having a look on twitter to see if I can get any info on the boundary line from fan photos.
From this I’ll asses what I believe to be a par score for the ground before waiting for the toss so I can get an idea of what I think is going to happen during the match.
I usually only trade in play for T20 but I will often Dutch top batsmen if the odds allow.
When the match goes in play I will usually wait until the second innings, there is the occasional exception to this rule but I like the speed I can get in and out during the second innings so I try to keep it that way, I’ll often not watch the first innings.
During the second innings I look for two things only, change in momentum and value. I find that the market will often over react to wickets and boundaries in T20 especially favouring the favourites. Often either of these instances will cause an over reaction in the market providing value.
I’m then looking for a change in momentum, if a boundary or a good over but the required run rate is going to be a slog for the chasing team we usually see big swings shortly after.
If it’s a wicket but the required run rate is easily manageable and I rate the remaining batters then I’ll also get in here expecting another big swing.
I’ll always be defensive with these trades and take a loss if required as there are usually ample opportunities to get back in.
I will also never hold a trade if I have any risk, a jump from 3.5 to 7 is plenty and can often be repeated rather than holding on.
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Great start to the ICC World T20 today, absolutely buzzing for Scotland and a perfect game for trading
I love trading games when there is such a heavily favoured team pre match who aren’t doing the do in play, usually leads to big swings and often ridiculous lay odds available so early in the game.
Fingers crossed for more of the same tomorrow with Sri Lanka and Namibia.
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Just missed my stake getting filled when CK suddenly jumped out to 2.2 before Venkakesh got out.
Got on at CK 1.62.Brings to the end the UAE segment
Pleased that I have come out with a profit. Not much, only 10 points over 20 games but I feel I have come a long way from when I first saw the markets jumping all over place, not making any sense to me. I had 5 losing trades and they were all bigger than the majority of my wins, so if I can manage those a little better (Or avoid them, even better) that will make a huge difference.
Bring on the World Cup
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@darri said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Starting to back CSK here @1.41 with 3 overs to go see where we finish end of innings
Greened up @1.05 lovely trade to end the ipl
looking forward to the world cup, great 2nd half of year for cricket -
Starting to back CSK here @1.41 with 3 overs to go see where we finish end of innings
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WOW.
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@james-woodroffe be laying RCB around 1.2's if happen
some spinners you just gotta back in
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@nathan-bennett I backed RCB at 4.0 after KL fell. Logic being Pooran is the epitome of all or nothing. Funny enough Doulley and Haydos start saying the same thing in commentary. Not for the first time Pooran fails sudden pressure on Markram and Agarwal and now RCB into 1.73. Will leave it maybe an over or two big over from RCB here should make it quite difficult.
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@james-woodroffe bloody flying . snuck in a cheap one 1.18 bonus double odds already
spewing my book was red before the u1.2 lay else launch more
love to hate t20's
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Should have stuck around for 2 more overs at least if not the first wicket
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Backed Kings at 2.80 start of chase. Logic being Kings have best opening combination in IPL and perhaps ever in this tournament. RCB yet to take a wicket during Powerplay since restart. Greened up now with Kings at 1.70 may re enter during back end will see.
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this a winning score RCB ?
i've got something on
could re back when chahal bowls
we'll see -
Sorry but that’s out! Terrible 3rd umpiring.
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LAY 1.01
Rude not too
Now come on AUS 3/12 haha
