Okay, this is nothing to do with cricket but I do follow politics very closely and have been keeping a keen eye on the odds for Britain's next prime minister.
The field has been narrowed down to former chancellor Rishi Sunak and the foreign secretary Liz Truss, with the winner being decided over the next six weeks by the votes of around 160,000 Conservative party members.
At the moment Truss is favourite at 1.72, but she is a very poor performer as far as speeches and debates are concerned and there are going to be plenty of those during the coming weeks. I expect Sunak to close the gap significantly and - if anyone held a gun to my head - I would pick him as the winner.
It's a long term trade by my standards and I won't be investing a fortune, but I feel it's a pretty safe one.
Hi Richard. This is a very intersting one imo. I also follow politics very closely and have been this leadership race for a while. (made a decent amount following Paul Krishnamurty in backing Penny Mordaunt for next leader at 17s a few months ago and recently tradeed out at odds on), but it was one thing trying to predict how Tory MPs would vote comared to those Tory party members!
There's been plenty of polling of the membership recently and they have been decently in favour of Truss which is essentially the cause of the current odds. My own view is this would be a very different situation were these tv debates before a general election for example, however they don't have to appeal to the electorate at all right now but only to those 160k party members. I just have the feeeling that most of them have their minds made up already based on their own views/principles, and having seen the stats for the party members today (95% white, a lot 65+ etc), I have a feeling that however badly these debates go for Truss (and they will go badly for her as she is awful at this), they just aren't going to change their minds and have their hearts set on a Thatcher wannabe.
I guess as a short term trade, regular punters will watch the debates and pile onto Rishi so he probably will shorten in the short term, but it's such a nuanced market that I wouldn't really have particular confidence in it one way or the other personally.
Let's be honest, if the Party had any real inclination to put forward the candidates most likely to win at the next General Election they would have put forward Tugenhadt or Mordaunt at the very least, so you can't really trust the competence of the party these days, MPs or members alike!
I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing Sunak currently, personally I'll be keeping a close eye and looking to jump in at a later date, hopefully after a little drift at first.