BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@tom seemed like a call because they really slowed down at the end there
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@dan-mackinnon said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@tom that's a good point. I'm not actually trading it, but I've got the week off work and procrastinating when I should be studying and had the cricket on in the background. It was just that a few people had posted their cricket strategies yesterday
I laid PBKS at around the same time as @James-Woodroffe for 2.37 and greened up when they hit 4.1. I tend to not wait until innings close as sometimes you get another opportunity to get back in, odds can shoot right up if you get a couple of sixes but sixes are usually followed by catches, as is happening now. Lay odds are back down to 3.3 now and with 3 overs left RR are likely to hit 200 which will be difficult for PBKS to chase.
I'll not be getting back into this until PBKS innings now.
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Before the Covid interruption RR had an unhealthy reliance on Jofra Archer to take their wickets without him it will be interesting to see who stands up as PK have a pretty decent batting line up so the Royals will really want 200 here.
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@tom that's a good point. I'm not actually trading it, but I've got the week off work and procrastinating when I should be studying and had the cricket on in the background. It was just that a few people had posted their cricket strategies yesterday
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@dan-mackinnon I backed RR at 1.64 after 8.3 overs with the score at 2-83 for half stake. I re entered after 15 overs for the other half stake at 1.44 and backed O 187.5 for a half point also after 15 overs. I’ll let this ride into Kings innings if RR continue at this rate and look for early wickets before the openers settle. If the openers settle I’ll green up or remove liability depending on the target.
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@dan-mackinnon yes mate, text book, I prefer to lay bowling team, it is too late to get in now
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The IPL game currently on. Is this the sort that you would look to back the batting team? Roughly 90-2 at 10 overs and their RR currently is 9.71. Then look to exit the trade at the end of the innings?
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@james-woodroffe that's really good info!
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@dan-mackinnon just to add something. Historically if you bat first and score 180+ you’re winning more matches than you’re going to lose and if teams are looking at 100 runs in the last 10 overs and a side is 1-80 after 8 I’d enter then. I wouldn’t necessarily wait till the 10th over. Like wise if I don’t enter after 10 overs I can always enter at the 15th over if they are 4-130 or just before when they reach 130. 10 runs an over for the last 5 will still see them hit 180.
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@dan-mackinnon I would mate. I learnt a lot from reading Mark Iverson’s blog after Darri put me on to it and because T20 cricket can be so nutty I just feel it’s best to wait but it’s different strokes for different folks. It can go against you obviously all trades can but I believe you come out better more often than not. The main reason it works for me and whilst we are talking IPL and T20WC in the UAE I’ve pretty much gotta walk out the door and do the school pick up as soon as it starts. Waiting 10 overs allows me to do what I gotta do and not be pre occupied with what’s going on in the game.
You might not even enter after 10 overs because things are not lining up. It might be the last 5 overs of the chase (done that heaps) It all just depends. It is definitely a way I think to get your bearings with T20 and it’s worked more often than not. It does mean that you might not enter a match at all and that’s cool cause there’s definitely no shortage of cricket ever being played. -
@james-woodroffe from reading yours, Darri's and Nathan's posts I noticed you all said wait 10 overs and then back the batting team 1st innings if they are projecting a decent score. The rest seem variations depending on how the chasing team respond.
Would it be fair to say that waiting 10 overs, assessing the situation and back the batting side is a good introduction to cricket trading?
I'm a fan of watching cricket and have got involved previously but it's definitely more gambling and after reading Darri's post I see I do everything he said not to! Fanboy trades, loads of micro trades, etc.
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@dj-reid mate you can use 180 as a pretty decent barometer for what’s considered a good above par T20 score. I’ve been thinking about this this morning. I was also thinking after reading some stuff today that I could have been a little clearer on.
I don’t jump in and out of the market in T20’s and as was mentioned over on Darri’s blog he worked with me on my strategy and I’ve tweaked it a little for myself but I’m only really looking at a maximum of 3 trades during a match.
Is Team A on track for 180 around the 10 over mark?
Is Team B on track to chase it down at the 10 over mark? (Whatever the target)
Is Team B on track to get dam close with 5 overs to go needing no more than 39 from the last 3.
There also MUST be set batsman at the crease I’ve learnt the hard way about “Fanboy” trading when I first started trading cricket and letting batsman get set. Watch the markets today and I reckon it will be a safe assumption that RCB will shorten considerably in price when both AB De Villiers and Glenn Maxwell come into bat and haven’t faced a ball.
Most T20 venues provide good decks, the standard of T20 wickets in the UAE has improved considerably. Also if I enter only once for a match and it’s the 15th over of the chase and the chasing side is needing 60 to win with wickets in hand and a set batsman I’m hoping the batting side have been written off and you can get great odds because it’s a great way to make nice decent profit, however if I’ve got it right I’m always out before the last over because if they need 39 from 3 it’s the 18th or 19th over they’ve turned the game on it’s head. I hope that makes more sense and I haven’t just rambled
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@dj-reid Yep I’m looking for average total batting first at a particular venue and average WINNING total at that venue more so, so looking at what is considered PAR for that particular venue. . @Darri explained it perfectly on his blog page this morning. I’m looking for team A (setting team) to be somewhere in the region of 2-3 for 75-80 after 10 overs. Most (especially franchise) T20 sides will target 100 in that last 10 overs. If the team batting first makes 180 and that’s a better than average winning score I’ll hold that position for the first 3 overs of the chasing sides PowerPlay. If you’re chasing and suddenly 2-10 chasing 181 you’re up against it and from a trading perspective can wait until both new batsman are settled before greening up and perhaps taking a 2nd position later in the chase if team B are back in the game. I’ll wait tho till both are set because 2-10 can easily become 3-17.
Likewise if the chasing team is 0-30 after 3 I’ll get out and reevaluate later.Thanks
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@dj-reid Yep I’m looking for average total batting first at a particular venue and average WINNING total at that venue more so, so looking at what is considered PAR for that particular venue. . @Darri explained it perfectly on his blog page this morning. I’m looking for team A (setting team) to be somewhere in the region of 2-3 for 75-80 after 10 overs. Most (especially franchise) T20 sides will target 100 in that last 10 overs. If the team batting first makes 180 and that’s a better than average winning score I’ll hold that position for the first 3 overs of the chasing sides PowerPlay. If you’re chasing and suddenly 2-10 chasing 181 you’re up against it and from a trading perspective can wait until both new batsman are settled before greening up and perhaps taking a 2nd position later in the chase if team B are back in the game. I’ll wait tho till both are set because 2-10 can easily become 3-17.
Likewise if the chasing team is 0-30 after 3 I’ll get out and reevaluate later. -
@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@dj-reid no mate it depends on the venue. I just used 180 as an example.
Thanks for clarifying.
So how are you calculating your par scores? Using averages from those grounds previous games?
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CSK and NZ woman classic
Pitty need sleep so much on ha -
@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
T20 PLAN OF ATTACK.
I will be looking to work around a par score strategy for the upcoming IPL and T20WC.
Working on what is considered to be par at the 3 venues to be used I’ll look to enter at the earliest around the 10th over give or take. This strategy was shown to me at the start of the last IPL which was also held in the UAE in 2020 (not counting the first half of this years.)
The advantage and what I like about this strategy is that you’re not entering early and if the team batting first has a disaster you are not already in the market staring at Red. Like @Nathan-Bennett said in his post and as was taught to me I will only enter if no more than 3 down, with 1 settled batter at the crease and power hitters in the shed still to come.
Ideally we are getting 1.80+ when entering and if the batting side scores in excess of 180 I will hold my position. Chasing 180+ is never easy and 9RPO can very quickly balloon to 10.5-11.0 if the chasing side loses a couple early in the PP.
Obviously things can turn quickly in T20 and the batting first team may be in a strong position when I enter and if it goes pear shaped in the last 8-10 overs then I’ll take the red and reassess during the chase.
TEAM TOTAL - Something I did sparingly
in the past but did have some success with. I did it sparingly because I’m absent minded and a lot of the time just forgot. This is a strategy I will be looking at this year thanks for the reminder @Nathan-Bennett.
Normally also I’ve hopefully greened up by the back end of the innings or taken a 2nd position if I think the chasing side has a chance to reel in the target. Again it’s the same theory as the first dig (no more than 3 out at 10 overs if that’s the entry point req run rate 8-10. With wickets in hand I will assume a chasing team can get 39 from the last 3 overs. If the RRR is over 13 with 3 to go I’ll bail.May be being thick here, are you using 180 as the par score?
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@tom said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Go on Zimbabwe for the 1.07 lay
Boom!!!
more than makes up for yesterday scratch day and can leave the IPL alone for today -
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