BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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I'm loving the lay of the draw at well under 3 in the Test between Sri Lanka and the West Indies at Galle, which started this morning. The last 13 matches here have all produced a clear winner.
Thunderstorms are predicted later in the match, but the Sri Lankans are brilliant at covering the whole field in double quick time, reducing the chances of a washout considerably.
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@darri. Appreciate the in depth reply. All of that makes sense. I'll see how my data ends up and make a plan. Thanks mate
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@andy Tricky question. Its all down to individual preference, as you get to trade and even follow this thread we all see opportunities differently. In cricket this is where trading edges can come. What i do is typically measure a game situation and how many times in this situation has x team won/lost/scored x amount/been fav at innings break etc. These are all the situations ill look to enter a trade with. For me T20s move rapid so for you to time a entry and exit perfectly come very rarely. Its like timing the stock market just forget about it. Just get in on the situations you specialise in and know what a price should be. Remember prices are just % chance of event happening. If Maxwell and Stoinis are both set, need only 9 an over in the last 8 overs and the price is 2.2 then youd fancy that is massive value. So like the list of things to track we discussed these give you that understanding of what a price should be. Then a quick weigh up of the variables such as who is bowling/are the batsmen set/is this price scared of kohli (ipl pun) etc. Once you get a few games down you thinking like this the decisions happen in seconds, when you write it like this sounds like a massive slog fest to find a good entry its just about repetition.
Remember this is my approach. I typically look to find long term holds rather than short term. In terms of when to exit thats upto you, im entering to place this for a match result, end of the day thats how im measuring if a price is value, the second you exit a trade you decrease that edge. However, this is cricket and being safe in the final overs is good to just green up if it has gone well for you. Like i say personal preference and trading style is where we all find our green, i use data and past scores to find my edge and i trade based off that. Ill miss glaring opportunities sometimes and fomo could creep in, but thats trading, you gotta know your plan and your style and trust your edge.
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For those interested in SL v WI test series. If you have Sky. I believe it’s on one of the international channels Hum Masala. Channel 732.
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@darri said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andy You could use flashscores archive
https://www.flashscore.co.uk/cricket/australia/big-bash-league-2020-2021/archive/Great find!
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@darri. Thanks for that website Darri, it's brilliant. Question for you if you don't mind. I've seen a number of people mention the 10 over mark to get involved with the exit point being the end of the innings. Let's say we're entering with a back bet. With all these other potential entry points to trade from (power play, 10 over, 15 etc) where would you look to exit? Would you look to exit all at the end of the innings but drip lays to eliminate red as you go? Don't have to answer if you don't want to. Thanks.
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@darri. Thanks heaps Darri, I'll check it out
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@andy You could use flashscores archive
https://www.flashscore.co.uk/cricket/australia/big-bash-league-2020-2021/archive/ -
@darri. Cheers Darri. Any idea where I can find these over breakdowns? Say powerplay total, 10 over, 15 over and power surge?
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The BBL is one of my main comps to trade. From a perspective of what to track i did a sheet which recorded everything for everyone. Not sure if the link is still on here but it tracked most of what youd be after. I like to add to your list to track 10/15 overs scores (flashscores give over by over scores) and use them as a good benchmark. Often a price will be more influenced by momentum rather than wait x team is on course to reach the required milestones and actually the market is wrong for its opinion here, giving you a good entry. If team is quite a bit ahead at that stage or behind it offers good trade in and out opportunities. The addition of the surge was a huge boost to traders, worked more in favour of teams almost down and out and could cripple those almost out of sight. Plenty ways to play it but if you stick to milestones and what teams need then the surge variance wont be too harsh on your trades overall.
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Hi Guys. Can anyone tell me a website where I can get t20 powerplay totals for big bash from previous seasons?
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@andy Na I doubt it mate. There’s always the threat in that part of SL sometimes it just gets blown away. It doesn’t look too bleak maybe it will be more of an annoyance. Will have a proper look tho. Yes SL has a very high results ratio those decks do love to crumble.
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@james-woodroffe. Are they expecting to lose days 4 and 5? I only have 20 tests in my data sheet from Sri Lanka... 19 results tho.
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Just having a quick look ahead and the draw price for the Sri Lanka v West Indies test match is at 3.40. Thunderstorms are expected for days 4 & 5 but draws in SL are very rare.
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@james-woodroffe. Cheers James. Lol it's very gimmicky but worth a look.
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@matt-ayles. Thanks for the feedback Matt, I'll definitely include that. I know of horse racing tipsters who will add comments like the horse was suited or not suited on the day either by bias, tempo or other. Especially when looking back questioning the result when previous form or conditions were sound.
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@andy maybe take in the Power Boost that they use for the BBL where sides get a bonus point if they outscored the opposition after 10 overs. It’s a bit gimmicky but it could add something for you.
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@Andy expanding on Martins point, I'd consider putting in a comments box where you could add a key piece of information such as "the teams strongest batsman was injured (Jason Roy)" or "their death bowler was injured (Tymal Mills)" etc...
It's not vital, but in a years time when analysing the data, and you see a shock result that messes up your figures, a reminder note like that may allow you to remove that shock result from your thinking.
