BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I'm guessing the toss will be a big trading opportunity today given the huge advantage of batting second, fastest finger first! Also hoping we see more low odd lays on the bowling team during the chase.
20 tick drop roughly
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It seems there are 2 approaches in this WC: The West Indies, England and Afghanistan approach which is intent from ball one and attack through the entire innings with the aim to score >180. For some reason (was it the NZ bowlers who have conceded the least boundaries this world cup) England deviated from this in their semi-final and didn't have the bowlers (without Mills and Archer) to defend 160
The other approach seems more popular and traditional which is the SA, Aus and NZ approach which is nurdle it around, take it deep and attack heavily at the end, targeting a 160-170 score. These teams probably have a better bowling unit than batting: Their bowling unit can defend this score, and their batters can chase 160 but can't hit enough boundaries to score or chase down 180 +
India seem stuck in the middle. They probably have the batters to show more intent but didn't (at least not in their games against Pak and NZ).
I think the first approach is going to be more successful and what teams should be aiming for. But if they don't have the batters who can hit a high boundary %, then they have to revert to the 2nd approach.
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@martin @Jonathan-Busch average 1st innings totals are something I keep a very close eye on in regards to the venues but something I would love to look deeply into is the % now of teams who bat second their win %. Everyone has been talking about the win toss win match factor at this World Cup but it seems without knowing exact numbers that results are very much in the favour of chasing sides in T20 cricket around the world. Knowing how to time a chase is such an important part and I’ve noticed that sides are not as gung ho in the powerplay as they were in the past it seems more and more teams bat deep take the chase deep and target in particular overs 15,17 and 19. I would love to do a deep dive into that. Something I noticed yesterday and had backed up was the way that Stoinis and Wade went about things. Both boys are Victorian and as a by product play a lot of cricket on the MCG. Dubai is a big ground like the G is and whilst they were not finding the boundaries easily what they were doing was getting a lot of 2’s during their partnership so as a result the scoreboard was ticking over and the run rate never got to panic stations as the worst it got was just a tick over 13. Pakistan seemed to not score as many 2’s following the opening partnership.
It’s also interesting that data and analytics in cricket seems to be a relatively new thing perhaps bought on by the advent of T20 which as a format is still not quite 20 years old. Match ups are fascinating I saw yesterday that Mitch Marsh averages 12 against Leg spin and first over post powerplay Pakistan introduced Shadab who got Marsh first ball. So many different ways to look at T20 in general. -
@james-woodroffe the other thing is positional advantage regarding stats, so I love to know about chases, average scores, is it a big advantage batting second? etc
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I would also be interested to know what kind of data everyone keeps. I definitely am geeking out on my stats and track selected stats on every game to build up a database. These have been refined and improved on after each tournament as I figure out what is most relevant for trading. I didn't realise I would need to become proficient in using excel as well. I track 6 over scores, 10 over scores, 4s, 6s, boundary %, the 10 over target % is a big one. Average 1st innings score, average winning 1st innings score. These get profiled under each ground.
Also track the 2nd innings RRR from the 10 over mark and this helps me know what the characteristics of a successful (or unsuccessful) chase are.
Pretty quick to enter data during a match or at the end of the game - takes about 3-4 mins to enter the data from scratch (for a match I haven't traded).
All this data for each game automatically goes into a summary sheet for a profile for each ground
I'm currently making a sheet from last years Big Bash as I have never traded this before so I have some idea of what to expect.
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@Nathan-Bennett game on brother.
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@jonathan-busch nice work mate. They were 2.24 when I entered again.
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@james-woodroffe Similar trade - Got on Aus at 1.80 in the 9th, but got out after the Maxwell wicket.
Back on them again in the 15th around 5's. Removed liability pretty early after this for a good green
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Let’s see how 39 from 3 goes today. Stoinis and Wade set.
MATTY WADE!!! You little bloody beauty!!!!!
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I backed Oz at 1.78 after 8 overs.
Out at my stop loss went against me pretty quickly.
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I backed Oz at 1.78 after 8 overs.
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This will be the highest successful chase of this T20 World Cup should Australia get up.
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Curious to know something.
We speak a lot about data when it comes to football and horse racing but do any of the cricket traders use data? I’ve been following CricViz both on Twitter and thru their podcasts for a short while and taking on board the data and information that they supply.
Something that was glaring in the build up to yesterday was just how poor England have been in the death overs in T20 cricket recently.
It’s a weakness that can be easily ignored given how dominant England were in the Super 12 and the series against SL at home but was glaring in the match against SA and obviously yesterday.
Tymal Mills was bought back into the side specifically for his death bowling in the absence of Jofra Archer but unfortunately he was injured. SA targeted the death overs and NZ had a plan to take it deep exploit this weakness and win with time on their side. Match ups are crucial in cricket we all know that and it was that information that grounded my decision to back NZ yesterday not just because of 39 from 3 but that this was the moment of England’s reckoning a test that data pointed out could well be where they won or lost the match. Just curious to know am I the only stats nerd or have others been delving into the data? -
Got the chance today to trade my first match since the SA v ENG Super 12 match.
Backed England at 1.75 during their innings. To be honest I can’t remember exactly when that was but Livingstone was set with Moen. Backed O165.5 after 17 overs and got a touch lucky thanks to Phillips drop off the last ball getting England to 166.
Stayed in the trade during the NZ innings and greened up with NZ 2-13 after Williamson fell as I had to do some house husband stuff.
Waited and waited for another opportunity and when Neesham started attacking Jordan NZ qualified for my 39 from 3 strategy. Got NZ at 2.40 but then remembered my son had swimming tonight and when Neesham fell greened up with NZ at 1.80. Taught him some new swear words as Mitchell took to Woakes
and finished with 2.8 points green for the match. Obviously left green behind but clicking along nicely for the tournament.
Tomorrow will be the last match in all likelihood that I trade as I’ll be away for the final.Apologies it was with Malan and Moen set not Livingstone and Moen when I backed England at 1.75.
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@matt-ayles great match really enjoyed it love the ebb and flow of T20.
Mitchell was great as was Neesham maybe it’s NZ’s time never saw them making this final but they’ve effectively eliminated India and now England so they deserve everything they get. -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Come on NZ...
Regretting this now lol. Thought they'd be preferable to India... ah well!
Any Kiwis on here, many congratulations. Brilliant match! -
Come on NZ...
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@jonathan-busch said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Pakistan starting price 1.07...Seems like a massive over-reaction here when the game hasn't started yet...
I feel Pakistan are the only team in it who could give England a game. Although even Sri Lankas spin attack fell apart yesterday thanks to a superb stand by Buttler and Morgan...
Where I know cricket prices swing alot, I have always used Ryans "what has to happen" process before trading. In this case, if Pakistan bowl first you'd be relying on them not taking early wickets (they've taken 11 of the 18 total in the opening 10 overs of their matches). If Pakistan bat first, you're relying on them losing early wickets (they've lost 3 of their total 10 in the opening 10 overs).
Granted the toss plays a big part, and Pakistan have chased all 3 so far, England showed the way yesterday with bat and ball.
For me, I would wait... as I would rather do what I did yesterday with England and back Pakistan at a decent price IF they do lose early wickets. That way if they win the toss, bowl first, and skittle Namibia out for a low score you'll avoid a potential hole.
