BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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ok, my PretossLay BOT 'worked' again today.
WI won Toss and went from 4.6 to 4.1
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33.
So, the Bot Stop Loss captured the WI at 4.4, (2 ticks) and let the IND drift til 1.33 (5 ticks) , so a net profit of 3 ticks.
Ok, not big profit, but if this is guaranteed for every ODI/T20/100/SA20/Big Bash/Blast/IPL game then this will be the bread and butter for me to go semi-pro , what with my regular earnings on Tests. If there was, say, a 1000 pound lay on both teams then can pretty much guarantee a 30/40 pound profit before the game has started.
It needs a lot of pfaffing around to set it up, and has taken a long time to get right, but looks really promising.
I wondered how this might work for ODI, and numbers arent as good (to be expected) as 20 over games, but there are enough 20 over games during the year for it to be doable methinks.However, one after thought i have had...
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33 , so a net drift of 0.05
Obviously caused by the 'crossover' effect of going beyond 2.0
However, WI went from 4.6 to 4.1, so a net effect of -0.5I always get confused over how many ticks this represents, and maybe i need both teams to be above 2.0 for this to work effectively?
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ODi WI v IND.
IND currently at 1.27 before the game starts !
Beware the IND weighting, ie they could be 3 down very quickly but still be only 1.3.I'm going to try my PreTossLay BOT on this to see what happens - expecting WI odds to shoot out should they lose the toss.
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@Gavin-Rumsey good points. 2021 season was very 50/50, 28 winners 32 losers and 2 matches rained off. However what i was noticing going through was it was the same No3's getting all the runs... Nat Sciver-Brunt, Heather Knight, Sophia Dunkley etc.
So you could ignore matches where the No3 is favourite, but those are the ones you'd get better value on the openers.
I also don't like "gambling" so prefer to find systems!
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@Matt-Ayles Nice thinking
I guess the thing that comes to mind is it's a small sample size currently and the women's game is developing quickly so will that trend persist or will we see bigger middle order power hitting.
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FYI the Mens stats showed a 31 out of 64 strike rate for openers, presumably due to the power hitters coming in later and smashing scores...
I'm going to check the women's stats from the 2021 season to compare, but at the moment I am thinking this is a womens only strategy...
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Can someone help me thrash out a strategy idea please...
I'm looking at team top runscorer during the Hundred.
In 2022 the women showed 30/48 innings where one of the 2 openers top scored.
Let's say you backed £1 on both openers, both innings, every match. £1 x 48 innings x 2 batters = £96 total outlay.
The average odds on openers ranges between 3.2 - 4.5 or so.
So if you back £1 at 3.2 that's a profit of £2.20.
£2.20 x 30 = £66 - (18 losing innings x 2 batters = £36) - £30 (the losing stake on the other opener in the winning selections) = BREAKEVEN Is that right? So provided you can get matched at odds greater than 3.2 (which most are) you'll profit long term?
My heads mush today hence asking lol. However, seems that there's a strategy there...
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Highlights beauty to watch again
And green book ha -
@Stuart-Wallace we need to swap numbers mate! Tell each other not to a few days before!
Ind v WI was a complete balls up for me. This could have been the same.
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@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Greened up. Not much. But I got myself in a potential hole so it feels like a bit of a miracle!
Not even sure what to have learned here!
Whichever way it goes it's been a cracking series
For me, i had to work really hard to get any sort of green on this game, but what i have learned (but i never seem to learn) is that weather affected games are a nightmare. I was swinging backwards and forwards trying to get some sort of position, and felt fortunate to get a small green in the end .
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Great game
Great series
Great CricketMust admit, have to give credit to AUS, as its always close when they come to ENG, but very rarely is it close when ENG go to AUS.
Next Ashes in ENG will be very different , without...
Broad,
Jimmy,
Moeen,
Woakes (likely)
Warner
Khawaja
Smith (likely)
Lyon,
Hazlewood (likely) -
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Aussie series lay BANG
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Aus went to 1.3 chasing the 8th highest total in test history, ended 50 runs short
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Grrrrr Zak
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He's done it again. Switched the bails. Wicket.
Cheek of it
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Come on now England finish this
Let it be broad
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Thanks for the hints and tips. Here in Germany it's not so easy to trade without Betfair (OrbitX only) and cricket is pretty unknown here. But I love it and Winning is more fun.
