BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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NZ IND
The play is LAY THE DRAW set and forget or square it off @20’s
There will be some swings today in draw market wickets spikes , time/partnerships dips (obvious)
Always risky to trade draw BACK TO LAY day 5 -
Not sure how to play this last day, any thoughts?
NZ need 3.1 rpo for 90 overs to win. Very unlikely so they will be batting for the draw.
They batted for 142 overs in their first innings but a main chunk of that was with Latham and Young, One of which is out already, and on a day 2 and 3 pitch. Latham, Williamson, Taylor and Nicholls can all bat for long periods but you have to think the lefties (Latham and Nicholls) won't survive against Ashwin too long
India win is probably more likely to happen ? Maybe this is a no-brainer...
Is it best then to back India or lay the draw? O wait for value in play
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Im looking to gather some stats for test matches. I was wondering if anybody could advise as to what I should be including.
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Ive taken the hit and traded out for a loss on the BANG v PAK match as 4 quick wickets and only a lead of 83. Maybe I was too quick to trade out? Wonder if I can reclaim some losses later in the match?
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IND LAY was good
Flipped
DRAW LAY @2.24
will again 1.75 1.50 -
i was hoping BANG go odds on and lay hard for a target trade
bit ambitious
think 1 down as type ? maybe notNZ IND
gees this draw could go odds on and massive lay if so -
IND Creeping up to the 250 lead I mentioned, 3 wickets remaining. My lay the draw there looks good for now. I reckon that India will either get bowled out or they will declare in the last hour today.
BANG V PAK I backed the draw here yesterday, didnt expect a batting collapse from PAK but somehow BANG have a 44 run lead going into their 2nd innings. Need BANG to bat sensibly for the rest of the day and well into tomorrow, they will need to bat long as the highest successful run chase is 395. Thoughts?
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@andy I was on it yesterday
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Having a lil LAY IND
might see 2's some point -
cant script this PAK BANG
however
pak will need to dig deep to get close to bang score
longer this takes better for draw trim
tightness of the match and time
what could also happen if bang when bat survive first 3-4 overs the draw market could steam in
happens heaps
drip laying prices 3.5 ish could be sound ?total speculation of course
anyone else
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Thoughts on the draw in bang pak now?
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squared book PAK BANG for now
pak making life difficult
next play could same yday lay bang if short enough when pak bat again -
Excellent morning for the draw layers.... price actually hit 19.5 at one stage. NZ have done well but it's going to be extremely tough batting last here. A target of 180 or more makes India firm favs IMO.
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Boom... That'll do me, got what I came for and traded out of my draw lay at 15
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Loving all the test chat !!! The scenario below is gold and yes 250 ball park lead would be great !! I’d expect plenty of market swings in the 4th INNS
No doubt plenty of trading opportunities and fast moving markets
Can’t wait -
@jonathan-busch said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
My predictions/position:
If India bat for 80 overs tomorrow and score at 2.8 rpo they will set a target of 290
This gives them 10 overs at the end of day four and 90 overs on day 5 to bowl NZ out
NZ will have to score at 2.9 rpo for 100 overs to win...or bat for 100 overs to draw. This could be a tough equation for the World Champs.
- India might get skittled
**Or they might not be able to score at 2.8
250 will be more than enough me thinks
- India might get skittled
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My predictions/position:
If India bat for 80 overs tomorrow and score at 2.8 rpo they will set a target of 290
This gives them 10 overs at the end of day four and 90 overs on day 5 to bowl NZ out
NZ will have to score at 2.9 rpo for 100 overs to win...or bat for 100 overs to draw. This could be a tough equation for the World Champs.
- India might get skittled
**Or they might not be able to score at 2.8
- India might get skittled
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Draw lay in Kanpur again looks the right play. It’s a patience game but as Nath said should well pay dividends. It’s what makes test cricket trading so much different to white ball trading. You can be watching the match unfold and convinced it will be a draw and then days 4 and 5 behave like days 4 and 5 should do.
I’m going to ignore the remainder of Bangladesh v Pakistan as I have to travel for work tomorrow on a long haul and already have a small green from it so will just focus on India v NZ. -
Im backing the draw in the other game as it looks like that scoring is quite slow. Pak have avoided the follow on. So they could either make an attacking declaration by giving Bang the lead of say 50-100 and then try skittling them out quickly. Or they could bat long and hope that they will bat once and also hope that the pitch deteriorates enough to force a winning result.
