BTC Cricket Trading Thread

Gary Calvert

Hi Stuart and everyone on here, my first post so hopefully my maths wont let me down and I look like a fool.

I am using a bot to try an inplay cricket scalp as well so have been following your attempts with this pretoss version, see calculations below, hopefully helpfull.

If you lay both teams same stake of 1000
my calculations are
Lay Ind 1.28 back 1.33 profit 37.59
Lay WI 4.6 back 4.4 loss -45.45

so I dont think it will work on same stake on both teams unless they are very similar odds,

if you take win probability from odds
1.28 = 79% 4.6 = 21%

Lay Ind £790 @ 1.28 back 1.33 profit 29.70
Lay WI £210 @ 4.6 back 4.4 loss -9.55

I dont know whether you are trying your bot out in simulation mode or with small stakes, I use BFBM and I had the same strategy running live and in simulation mode and I realised that in simulation mode bot always assumes any bet it fires gets matched, in reality that doesnt always happen, as I found out simulation mode showed a profit, live mode unmatched bet and a loss.

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@Stuart-Wallace I layed pretty much as a wicket fell. Thought I was a goner. 2 big shots put me in green. I bailed in a bit of panic and missed a 1.25 to 2.1 opportunity.

Stuart Wallace

@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.

At end of game, just short of 30 million matched. !

Stuart Wallace

@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@Stuart-Wallace And someone will be really pissed that I snaffled £3.70 of it. Boo ya

Can i have it back please !

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@Stuart-Wallace And someone will be really pissed that I snaffled £3.70 of it. Boo ya

Martin

@Stuart-Wallace that's mad!

Stuart Wallace

thought id check out liquidity for the televised 100 game tonight - Trent Rockets v Southern Brave.
Currently over 10 million matched at half way point - incredible.

Martin

@Stuart-Wallace interesting keep us updated!

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@Matt-Ayles Great research!

I'd suspect there will be more quality down the order now so it won't just be the known big players challenging those top scores.

Interesting angle to look into though for sure

Stuart Wallace

ok, my PretossLay BOT 'worked' again today.
WI won Toss and went from 4.6 to 4.1
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33.
So, the Bot Stop Loss captured the WI at 4.4, (2 ticks) and let the IND drift til 1.33 (5 ticks) , so a net profit of 3 ticks.
Ok, not big profit, but if this is guaranteed for every ODI/T20/100/SA20/Big Bash/Blast/IPL game then this will be the bread and butter for me to go semi-pro , what with my regular earnings on Tests. If there was, say, a 1000 pound lay on both teams then can pretty much guarantee a 30/40 pound profit before the game has started.
It needs a lot of pfaffing around to set it up, and has taken a long time to get right, but looks really promising.
I wondered how this might work for ODI, and numbers arent as good (to be expected) as 20 over games, but there are enough 20 over games during the year for it to be doable methinks.

However, one after thought i have had...
IND went from 1.28 to 1.33 , so a net drift of 0.05
Obviously caused by the 'crossover' effect of going beyond 2.0
However, WI went from 4.6 to 4.1, so a net effect of -0.5

I always get confused over how many ticks this represents, and maybe i need both teams to be above 2.0 for this to work effectively?

Stuart Wallace

ODi WI v IND.
IND currently at 1.27 before the game starts !
Beware the IND weighting, ie they could be 3 down very quickly but still be only 1.3.

I'm going to try my PreTossLay BOT on this to see what happens - expecting WI odds to shoot out should they lose the toss.

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@Gavin-Rumsey good points. 2021 season was very 50/50, 28 winners 32 losers and 2 matches rained off. However what i was noticing going through was it was the same No3's getting all the runs... Nat Sciver-Brunt, Heather Knight, Sophia Dunkley etc.

So you could ignore matches where the No3 is favourite, but those are the ones you'd get better value on the openers.

I also don't like "gambling" so prefer to find systems!

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@Matt-Ayles Nice thinking

I guess the thing that comes to mind is it's a small sample size currently and the women's game is developing quickly so will that trend persist or will we see bigger middle order power hitting.

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FYI the Mens stats showed a 31 out of 64 strike rate for openers, presumably due to the power hitters coming in later and smashing scores...

I'm going to check the women's stats from the 2021 season to compare, but at the moment I am thinking this is a womens only strategy...

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Can someone help me thrash out a strategy idea please...

I'm looking at team top runscorer during the Hundred.

In 2022 the women showed 30/48 innings where one of the 2 openers top scored.

Let's say you backed £1 on both openers, both innings, every match. £1 x 48 innings x 2 batters = £96 total outlay.

The average odds on openers ranges between 3.2 - 4.5 or so.

So if you back £1 at 3.2 that's a profit of £2.20.

£2.20 x 30 = £66 - (18 losing innings x 2 batters = £36) - £30 (the losing stake on the other opener in the winning selections) = BREAKEVEN Is that right? So provided you can get matched at odds greater than 3.2 (which most are) you'll profit long term?

My heads mush today hence asking lol. However, seems that there's a strategy there...

Nathan Bennett

Highlights beauty to watch again
And green book ha

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@Stuart-Wallace we need to swap numbers mate! Tell each other not to a few days before!

Ind v WI was a complete balls up for me. This could have been the same.

Stuart Wallace

@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

Greened up. Not much. But I got myself in a potential hole so it feels like a bit of a miracle!

Not even sure what to have learned here!

Whichever way it goes it's been a cracking series

For me, i had to work really hard to get any sort of green on this game, but what i have learned (but i never seem to learn) is that weather affected games are a nightmare. I was swinging backwards and forwards trying to get some sort of position, and felt fortunate to get a small green in the end .

Stuart Wallace

Great game
Great series
Great Cricket

Must admit, have to give credit to AUS, as its always close when they come to ENG, but very rarely is it close when ENG go to AUS.

Next Ashes in ENG will be very different , without...
Broad,
Jimmy,
Moeen,
Woakes (likely)
Warner
Khawaja
Smith (likely)
Lyon,
Hazlewood (likely)

Martin

@Jono I don't like cricket....................

I love it!