BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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NB. No match has come close to being a draw since the first pink ball Test here back in 2015, although Australia do have a couple of mammoth scores against England and Pakistan when batting first. So if they do bat first, we might get some tasty lay prices on day two.
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@sean-fitzgerald Really like the idea of laying the draw if the batting side has two good sessions tomorrow. Trouble is, if England bat first they may all be out by then
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@matt-ayles @Nathan-Bennett
Assume the fact it’s a pink ball test is playing largely in to that draw price.
I was looking this afternoon (not in any great depth) to see if I could easily find any data to support the narrative around wickets falling at a greater rate in night session of pink ball tests. I couldn’t find anything already done on it (as I said though, it wasn’t a thorough search). If the narrative is supported by data there are angles to look at there.
On that note, if whoever bats tomorrow has a good first 2 sessions that may be the best entry time for LTD?
C’mon Aussies
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@nathan-bennett yeah too soon to LTD at that price... only real option with pre match odds would be a lay of Aus but thats hugely risky.
Gotta hope whichever side bats first bats all day for very few wickets.
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Seems to be a couple of digits missing in front of the draw price tmr AUS ENG
As always be nice to get a better price to layBring on another great trading test
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Different pitch today in Karachi more of the same expected.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Is there a website with a comprehensive international test cricket calendar please?
https://www.icc-cricket.com/mens-schedule/list
Can select by format
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Is there a website with a comprehensive international test cricket calendar please?
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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
If England can survive the first hour tomorrow this will be pretty much a 50-50 match, considering Australia have to bat last which is always a big disadvantage.
You can't totally rule out the draw, although I do think 4.9 is far too short. About a one in ten chance by my reckoning.
Spot on! With a day to spare!
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42-26 matched bang then wicket
lucki'm well out of this now
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foxtel shat itself
suspect no vision worldwide
comedyall ready played the lay low game but gees 1.04-1.12
many ways to make money
learn and watch markets -
maybe last gamble trade to try add some green
backed draw 42
square up 26all good if fails
good result all up .., just not great as hoped ha -
It's always the hope that kills you when it comes to England playing Down Under. Actually thought they might be on the verge of something special overnight. Any chance of Stokes doing a Botham? I won't hold my breath.
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yip sad for test
these two must erase deficit and add 50
then be able smash all the way to all out -
Pleased I got a draw lay and didn't wait
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Poor shot from Root. All over now.
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p**s off green ffs
too good
squaring up a lot ha bugger -
Surprised only got 1 tick on overnight scalp
Anyway come on ENG luck and runs and aussie get to 2's
#dontaskformuch -
@richard-futter thanks Richard, always learning
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@dave-hayes With Test cricket laying the draw is a tried and tested method as the draw is nearly always overbet on the markets. It's a question of picking the right time of course, but I always try to post on here with what I'm doing when I spot a good opportunity.
And white ball cricket - especially T-20 or One Hundred stuff - is the best sport around for laying low with very little exposure and gaining big rewards. It's best to do it when there are still plenty of overs to go, as today in the Thunder-Stars game when with 5 overs to go and a good few runs still to get, Thunder traded at 1.11 before going on to lose the game. Of course, those trading low won't always end up losing, but big rises in their price are very common whether batting or bowling.
Hope that's of some help
