BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Curious to know something.
We speak a lot about data when it comes to football and horse racing but do any of the cricket traders use data? I’ve been following CricViz both on Twitter and thru their podcasts for a short while and taking on board the data and information that they supply.
Something that was glaring in the build up to yesterday was just how poor England have been in the death overs in T20 cricket recently.
It’s a weakness that can be easily ignored given how dominant England were in the Super 12 and the series against SL at home but was glaring in the match against SA and obviously yesterday.
Tymal Mills was bought back into the side specifically for his death bowling in the absence of Jofra Archer but unfortunately he was injured. SA targeted the death overs and NZ had a plan to take it deep exploit this weakness and win with time on their side. Match ups are crucial in cricket we all know that and it was that information that grounded my decision to back NZ yesterday not just because of 39 from 3 but that this was the moment of England’s reckoning a test that data pointed out could well be where they won or lost the match. Just curious to know am I the only stats nerd or have others been delving into the data? -
Got the chance today to trade my first match since the SA v ENG Super 12 match.
Backed England at 1.75 during their innings. To be honest I can’t remember exactly when that was but Livingstone was set with Moen. Backed O165.5 after 17 overs and got a touch lucky thanks to Phillips drop off the last ball getting England to 166.
Stayed in the trade during the NZ innings and greened up with NZ 2-13 after Williamson fell as I had to do some house husband stuff.
Waited and waited for another opportunity and when Neesham started attacking Jordan NZ qualified for my 39 from 3 strategy. Got NZ at 2.40 but then remembered my son had swimming tonight and when Neesham fell greened up with NZ at 1.80. Taught him some new swear words as Mitchell took to Woakes
and finished with 2.8 points green for the match. Obviously left green behind but clicking along nicely for the tournament.
Tomorrow will be the last match in all likelihood that I trade as I’ll be away for the final.Apologies it was with Malan and Moen set not Livingstone and Moen when I backed England at 1.75.
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@matt-ayles great match really enjoyed it love the ebb and flow of T20.
Mitchell was great as was Neesham maybe it’s NZ’s time never saw them making this final but they’ve effectively eliminated India and now England so they deserve everything they get. -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Come on NZ...
Regretting this now lol. Thought they'd be preferable to India... ah well!
Any Kiwis on here, many congratulations. Brilliant match! -
Come on NZ...
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@jonathan-busch said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Pakistan starting price 1.07...Seems like a massive over-reaction here when the game hasn't started yet...
I feel Pakistan are the only team in it who could give England a game. Although even Sri Lankas spin attack fell apart yesterday thanks to a superb stand by Buttler and Morgan...
Where I know cricket prices swing alot, I have always used Ryans "what has to happen" process before trading. In this case, if Pakistan bowl first you'd be relying on them not taking early wickets (they've taken 11 of the 18 total in the opening 10 overs of their matches). If Pakistan bat first, you're relying on them losing early wickets (they've lost 3 of their total 10 in the opening 10 overs).
Granted the toss plays a big part, and Pakistan have chased all 3 so far, England showed the way yesterday with bat and ball.
For me, I would wait... as I would rather do what I did yesterday with England and back Pakistan at a decent price IF they do lose early wickets. That way if they win the toss, bowl first, and skittle Namibia out for a low score you'll avoid a potential hole.
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Pakistan starting price 1.07...Seems like a massive over-reaction here when the game hasn't started yet...
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Out to 2.0.... that will do very nicely. Anyone on?
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On average, 140+ in the first innings has been a winning score, so I'm liking the lay of South Africa at around 1.46.
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Backed Pakistan at 1.65 following the wicket of Rizwan.
Awesome performance from Pakistan ends the day at scratch after the earlier loss but the cricket nerd in me loved that last match.
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@james-woodroffe I’ve gone for exactly the same.
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Backed Pakistan at 1.65 following the wicket of Rizwan.
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I’ve backed Bangladesh at 2.02 following the wicket of Roston Chase in the 19th over.
Took a loss there, was a nail biter of a match hard to get out of. Never reached my stop loss and never hit an odds range I was happy to green up with. Bangladesh by rights should have won. Not to be onwards and upwards.
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I’ve backed Bangladesh at 2.02 following the wicket of Roston Chase in the 19th over.
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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
On Australia here at 1.55 chasing 155. SL to me about 15-20 short of what they should have got. It’s pretty bog standard chase for Dubai so let’s see.
Out with Australia at 1.02 after 10 overs and 1.6 points. Bring on England on Saturday
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On Australia here at 1.55 chasing 155. SL to me about 15-20 short of what they should have got. It’s pretty bog standard chase for Dubai so let’s see.
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@james-woodroffe sounds like a good strategy there!
superb hitting.