BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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The timing of the declaration will be interesting. Kohli is not a defensive captain and he'll be aware of the fact there could be rain later in the day tomorrow. My guess is he'll be very confident of bowling SA out cheaply once again, so watch out for a fairly early declaration (around tea time) which would be bound to see a big drift in the draw price.
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Good to see the draw price drifting more this morning as people wake up to what the true odds should be. I agree with Luke though, it will probably turn if wickets don't fall, so treading with a bit of care at the moment and will possibly go back in if it gets towards even money.
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@sean-fitzgerald
I think you are right about the odds, but I would see that as more of a value bet than trading. There is no real exit point on a bet like that, other than cutting your losses, but risking £100 to win £10 seems like an unnecessary risk.I greened up from the draw yesterday. Staying out at the moment. I think the draw could come back in if India have a settled partnership once the night watchman is out.
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SA IND
I'm only on draw lay at mo and may keep it simple for once lolwould love 6-$7 and be happy green book
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Sth Africa at 11 look too short for mine.
Current scenario I couldn’t see them winning from this position circa 10% of the time as odds imply.
Play for me now is remove some liability on draw and put down small lay of Sth Africa.
Keen to hear thoughts.
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@james-woodroffe Yep, there are a few variables still in this game. India wont declare (if they are in a position to) until they feel they are out of reach, which wont be until last session tomorrow at earliest'- they wont think about weather.
Yes, lots of wickets today, but the main weapon is the new ball.
Centurion typically dies on the 5th day, so i can quite see a draw happening, and for me, its a case of greening up (hopefully) before the last day. -
We have had 18 wickets fall today for 250 odd runs and not even close to the 98 overs that were due to be bowled.
Market is still loving the draw and working on the assumption that rain on Day 5 will have the final word.
Looking forward to tomorrow already, still think there’s a lot in it for the quicks to continue the match at a nice rate. -
@stuart-wallace think its the 50% chance of rain on Thursday that might scupper that plan. Think India will want to go hard, try an push a 300+ lead by half way through session 2 tomorrow, give themselves 1.5 sessions on day 4 to bowl them out.
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SA all out 197, 130 behind. By end of day should be 150 behind at least.
100 overs tomorrow,
India , if they bat well, should get 270 more runs, thus leaving 420, and get SA in with 15 overs left in day, and then SA will have to survive for last day.
Well, thats the perfect scenario, cant see SA surving for a day plus 15 overs. tbh.Whats everyones thoughts?
I'm pleased to announced that my big red is now a slightly lower red.
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Shame India have wasted so many overs getting through this tail...
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So many no balls #how I don’t understand
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Are you England in disguise?!
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This is outstanding from India keep it up.
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Too easy!
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taken some 2.2 BACK DRAW
i'll lay all this equity @1.7
if doesn't happen well all good big fill up
CAN WE HAVE 1.3's DRAW MARKETS EVERY TEST
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Here we go again.... just love Test cricket
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@james-woodroffe Still a crazy price now IMO. I know some forecasts are predicting storms on Thursday, but not all of them are, and weather predictions are notoriously unreliable in this area.
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There is a fantastic article on Cricbuzz currently that highlights the major problem with England’s test batting.
The problem isn’t scheduling or the county championship but it’s a technique and temperament issue. Finding very few players who have both of those bases covered. They may have one but lack in the other. Also the lure of franchise cricket and the pay checks that come with that.
Players have all the shots and get pats on the back for a 15 ball 30 and coaches at county level are too afraid to work with players to improve their techniques. -
@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Yes, all working out rather nicely. Who on earth would back at that kind of price with three days' play left?
Never ceases to amaze me Richard just how often the draw price gets so ludicrously short with so much play still to be had.
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@chris-osborne said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Best thing for the Ashes would be for the last two matches to be cancelled and the team called home this has been embarrassing. The gap between county and test cricket is too big, needs a massive rethink
As long as you have the likes of Darren Stevens being successful in county cricket then the more likelihood that the test team will be s**t
