BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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I don't have a current picture of the wicket but there's been no sun in brisbane, the decks greenish still and very humid. Rain expected from lunch time. You want to bowl 1st.
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Im currently in a break even situation with Bang v Pak. Any wickets will be good. Looking to get out @2.0 for the draw, should be straightforward with 3 wickets remaining and a possible follow on as well. See what happens when I wake up at 5am for work? Will be monitoring the AUS V ENG match. Forecast looks iffy to say the least. Whoever wins the toss what are they likely to do?
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@matt-ayles with minimal liability and good gain I'm gonna let it ride for now.
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@dan-peacey yeah draw lays have been managed some overnight swings re laying rock bottom market out again 1.5's .. nice green on the draw and making pak the bigger result now and will square up if pak get to 1.3 range
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@richard-futter i managed to get on in drips between 1.10 and 1.12 which was pleasing.
I can green up now for 1.2 points but given the prospect of a full days play and a potential follow on I am hesitant (max return is 7 points)... my liability is only 1.5 points.
What are peoples thoughts? -
@dan-peacey Pakistan are approaching these last two days in a very positive way; I think you're right, it's quite possible Pakistan will make another declaration even if they can't enforce the follow on, because they're convinced there's no way this Bangla team will chase down any sort of total. And of course Bangla need to win to level the series; a draw does them very little good. Anyone manage to lay the draw at 1.02?The best i managed was 1.17.
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
BANG PAK
I’m keeping it simple back PAK green up if PAK get to 1.3Have u laid the draw in this match? I have, however backing Pakistan now might be a decent play.
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BANG PAK
I’m keeping it simple back PAK green up if PAK get to 1.3 -
So what do we think now wrt Bang v Pak? If quick wickets fall tomorrow then follow on could be enforced. Say bang get bowled out for 110-120. Pak would have a lead of 180. Pak play away t20 style for a lead of 250 declare and then go for it. However 2 overs are lost at change of innings, so potentially 4 less than scheduled at least.
Scenario quick wickets fall (10 overs). 2 for the change that's 12.
Pakistan score 70 in 10 overs, minis another 2. So that's 24 overs. So 61 overs to chase 250.Just to state that I'm not an expert, but I do play cricket captain on the pc so I have some knowledge of the game.
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Scenes in Dhaka
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Also big bash this stuff happens all the time like 1/100 then skittled 150
Love trading it dominate market fav late in an INNS go against it -
Couldn’t could it Dhaka
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@dan-peacey be rude not too
Can it
Come on ha -
Here is a mad idea. Bangladesh either get bowled out cheaply or reach the follow on target of 100 and declare. Pak blaze to get 300 lead. Bang won't get 300 on the last day. Lay the draw might still be the play with wickets flying about currently.
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Wickets falling in Pakistan....
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Not sure what radar you guys look at for aus but BOM is the best
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@dan-peacey great shout
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@matt-ayles really need detail radar make assessment suppose
Definitely likely to be a swinging market that’s forsure
I’ve made no decision -
@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Morning gang, or afternoon depending on where we are any thoughts behind a back of the draw at the Gabba with inclement weather around with a possibility to lay it if things improve? Rain and Brisbane go hand in hand but draws are pretty rare there.
A circa 50% chance of rain on 4/5 days is concerning for sure, and given the lack of warm up matches I imagine both teams will happily take an opening draw and some time in the middle...
However at 3.5 I feel that they've put us in a precarious position, as the price could move significantly in either direction given either a delayed start or early wickets!
Really tricky one for me...
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@dan-peacey tuned out , if throwing th bat then yeah prob about too
