BTC Cricket Trading Thread

James Woodroffe

This might seem like a stupid question but Cricinfo is saying that the 4th Ashes test starts tomorrow. I was certain it starts today or is it tomorrow??

Stuart Wallace

@tom-david-1 Thanks Tom

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@stuart-wallace you can watch on bet365

This is my thoughts too, Bangladesh are lining up to be able to win this, IF they can get wickets

Stuart Wallace

OK, so first hour done without any wickets. I dont have TV pictures (maybe thats another lesson learnt), so following via Cricindia, but at this rate, BAN could be 200 ahead by Tea, and ready to put NZ under some severe pressure. If they lose 2/3 wickets in last session i can now see a poss BAN win.
For those watching on TV, is the pitch really that flat? and has it got flatter since Day 1 ?

Nathan Bennett

@stuart-wallace 4 and below be great .., and NZ bat in hand and batters having faced a few balls each
Even if NZ lose a early one
Markets could move fast

The other thing (bias easy to forget ha) bang get 200 lead and Nz 2/10

Draw if hits 1.2’s soon could be automatic lay look to get red out at half
Lay 1000 1.25
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Stuart Wallace

@nathan-bennett What sort of price would interest you for BAN lay?

Stuart Wallace

@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

Need my world champs to bowl BANG out 100 lead by lunch latest
Then NZ score 350 in 90 overs
Leaving 60 to bowl BANG out

Scenario would keep draw price hovering around similar worst case

Definitely have my eye on BANG price tho
Could be a layer at some point

Thanks Nathan, maybe thats the answer.

Stuart Wallace

Anybody got any advice on trying to reduce my big red which incurred by backing NZ when BAN went in to bat ?
Back the draw ?

Nathan Bennett

Need my world champs to bowl BANG out 100 lead by lunch latest
Then NZ score 350 in 90 overs
Leaving 60 to bowl BANG out

Scenario would keep draw price hovering around similar worst case

Definitely have my eye on BANG price tho
Could be a layer at some point

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@james-woodroffe thats excellent advice. Thank you. You know me, I always listen when offered help. Very much appreciated. Will do that.

James Woodroffe

@matt-ayles maybe a lay of SA if you backed the draw? Could remove some of your liability on the draw if India’s bowlers have a good day today and get them back in the test. Not the greatest SA team going around a lot of pressure on Elgar to score the runs. Just a suggestion anyway mate.

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I think that with NZ v BAN that the draw price will come in as long as Bangladesh are batting but could quickly drift if early NZ wickets.

There’s an opportunity here I feel for a result, I’ve been mad at myself all day for laying the draw at 2.9 yesterday instead of laying NZ which was my instinct

I also cut the pre game lay of NZ early, classic case of not seeing the reality vs your original preconceptions

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@james-woodroffe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@matt-ayles exactly and we need to remember that even if it’s a draw as long as it presents opportunities to either remove Red or slightly improve profit it could still present something.

Yes indeed. I'm in the green guaranteed on NZ match but i moved most of the green from the draw onto the team markets after day 2 assuming Ban would be bowled out yesterday.

I'm in the green on England too, as backed the draw a few days ago given the forecast. Will see how that goes.

The one I'm currently most interested in is SA as there's rain forecast every day in Joburg but it never materialised today and that's put me in the red for this match... not going to panic and jump ship but if there's no rain tomorrow either I could be in a bad spot.

James Woodroffe

@matt-ayles exactly and we need to remember that even if it’s a draw as long as it presents opportunities to either remove Red or slightly improve profit it could still present something.

James Woodroffe

After a draw lay at the Wanderers yesterday at 3.55 I’ve greened up this morning at 6.20. Work might make trading it a little tricky but it’s a little green that adds to what I’ve made in the NZ v Bang test.
Have laid the draw in Sydney at 1.65 seemed rude not to and will monitor it today.

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Interesting reading about NZ v Ban. Personally I was thinking it must be a draw despite 2 full days left, simply as it seems to be easy to bat on... only 16 wickets in 3 days is low, and may require as many as 24 more for a result... however how many matches that are not weather impacted actually end as draws anywhere?!

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@stuart-wallace that’s my major concern here but I do feel that with two full days of cricket there is potential for this current outlook to change. I’ll be keeping an eye on it as I’m also red at the mo.

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@james-woodroffe I’ve just been looking into the weather abit more and have already placed a lay here. I’ll add to it if and when it comes in now.

James Woodroffe

@tom-david-1 firstly welcome to the forum. Secondly at 1.68 I reckon definitely worth a lay for Sydney. It’s a pretty low risk trade and rain isn’t uncommon for there this time of year and I can’t remember a washed out test. Also with Sydney it could just as easily blow away so I guess we just wait and see.

Stuart Wallace

@tom-david-1 One of the major problems in this as i see it is that for BAN to score 400+ on a NZ wicket means that the wicket is obviously as flat as a wicthes chest, and BAN dont have the bowlers to inflict any real damage. Draw odds-on for me here.
Personally, i will be trading aggressively to get me out of my current big red.