BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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NZ SA TEST
Shaping up nicely chasing will be challenging, however
Eyeing a NZ back around 1.9-2.0 if happens while SA still batting and a re back at 3.0 if happens
Think eventually wicket(s) and a market crash
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Dam 1.78 before the 4th wicket fell
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NZ Backed 1.91 -
@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Fraser-cord i had same thoughts, in that if the four wickets were taken quickly,which they were, the price would start to climb significantly, but that didnt happen - the price stayed around 7 - even when NZ lost an early wicket it stayed around 7 .... so, i just lumped some more on !
looking at a tidy green now. Thinking of removing liability so i can use it for ENG game.Yeh I'm glad i stayed away. Thinking was sound but the price didn't match it. And definetely didn't see the Kiwi's folding like that.
You will have made a decent return on LTD. I was hoping for a quick back to lay, but not to be on this one. I'm always nervous LTD at higher odds, was stung a couple of times as the price comes tumbling with a long stand. I guess its the discipline that its 5 days and a 50 over stand is nothing in that providing the wickets tumble later on.
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The draw price in Rajkot looks interesting as the crucial third Test gets underway nice and early tomorrow. It currently sits at around 9.0, but it could easily dip much lower than that during the first day's play.
There have only been two Test matches at this relatively new ground, but in both matches there's been an avalanche on first innings runs, so whoever wins the toss will 100 per cent bat first and their price will drop considerably. England are currently a very tempting 4.3, but if the toss goes their way I can see the odds coming down to 3 and below very quickly.
When England played here in 2016, the teams amassed more than a thousand first innings runs between them and the match did end in a draw, while India scored 649 in their last innings at Rajkot, albeit against a very poor West Indies outfit.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the draw price fall below 5 during this game, but with spin likely to be a major factor later, if it dips as low as 4 that will definitely be the time to lay.
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@Nathan-Bennett Swimming pool is best place to be.!
We've got 33 forecast in Cape Town this weekend and the locals are already moaning - so can imagine what 43 is like. I once experienced 45 degrees, and found it to be strangely not as uncomfortable as i thought it would be, however, i think my body just closed down . -
@Stuart-Wallace this heat wave we in no joke pray aircon holds ha
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AUS W V SA W....
a 4 day game - little liquidity at moment, but LTD looks like being between 4-5 .
Weather is set fair and hot for all 4 days - reaching 43 degrees (gulp) on day 2. -
IND V ENG - CAREFUL - LTD warning !
Rajkot has only had 2 tests before and the teams batting first have scored 530 and 640.
So, pitch could well be a road, therefore be careful with LTD - in actual fact, it may be wise to consider to back the draw - especially should IND bat first.
Weather is set fair for all five days. -
@Fraser-cord i had same thoughts, in that if the four wickets were taken quickly,which they were, the price would start to climb significantly, but that didnt happen - the price stayed around 7 - even when NZ lost an early wicket it stayed around 7 .... so, i just lumped some more on !
looking at a tidy green now. Thinking of removing liability so i can use it for ENG game. -
@Stephen-Hancox i have 2 chains of thought for this one. If SA get skittled out quickly in the morning session, draw should go out to 10+, so a back to lay of the draw should do well with the NZ batters likely to take control.
Or if the tail continues to wag, could definitely see the draw sub 5's very quickly, probably much lower. Im sure it got sub 2.5 in the 1st test. Definite value there
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The draw has come in a bit in the NZ test, I've layed small at 6.8, will see how the test goes but may enter again at around 4 if it gets down that far.
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@Fraser-cord i think that risk for LTD is fairly negligible with weather being fine for 5 days.
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@Stuart-Wallace Yeh i agree, but laying at 10 isnt much value for the risk.
Would definitely back the NZ bowlers for early wickets though.
Just keep our fingers crossed for NZ to bat 1st, ideally with SA putting them in, and a 1st day similar to the 1st test.
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@Fraser-cord If SA bat first, then i am going to lump on the LTD, as it will quickly run away and be late teens before you know it.
Brand and Moore clearly do not have the skill for this level of cricket and very quickly they could be 3 down. -
@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
NZ v SA 2nd test tonight at Hamilton. Weather is looking fine for all 5 days (if it gets that far)
Stats: there has been 2 draws out of last 10 tests (although because of the weakness of the SA team this is likely to be irrelevant) - however the interesting stat to me is that all of the last 10 tests at Hamilton has seen the side winning the toss elect to field, my assumption being is that Hamilton, because of its location, usually shows a tinge of green at start?.My thoughts were,before finding out the above, that because SA elected to field in 1st test, that it was almost certain that NZ would bat first regardless, and therefore i was looking to back the draw in from 9 (current) into 6 and then get back on LTD when SA bat. however, not so sure now and will wait til toss has taken place before entering.
Thoughts?I am planning to do something similar providing NZ bat 1st. Wouldnt touch the draw early if SA bat, no idea what they could do. But NZ's record at Seddon park looks good, as does the general 1st innings score of the team batting 1st. Although no tests there in the past few years, 2020 the last i think.
Been a couple of tests already this year with a perceived mismatch between opponents, and when the favs batted 1st and started well, the draw came in quite a lot.
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@Tony-Hastie yep, know the feeling... in the 70's i had trials for Kent schoolboys at Mote Park, Maidstone, and failed miserably - so i hate Mote Park
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@Stuart-Wallace Actually, thinking about it more I think we batted second and were chasing a rather large total...so, yeah, lost that one. Our little school made it to the semis again the next year and got thrashed by the other powerhouse team at the time. Friggin hate Seddon park
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@Tony-Hastie I assume you lost, Tony ?
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Ive been doing some (crude) analysis on Test matches played in 2023, and ...
there were 39 Tests played (including womens) and there were 5 draws in that 39 - and at least 2 of those that were seriously weather-affected (Manchester and Sydney).
Therefore, out of those 39, there would have been 34 LTD's that worked and 2 that you would have likely traded outside LTD. So, if for example you had 100 pounds on LTD then you would have a potential profit of 3400.
I am intending for 2024/25 season to attempt to average a 250 pound profit per test thus giving a profit closer to 10k. This would obviously require a larger Bank to enable to trade where Tests overlap(happens a fair bit).
Also, another thing i have noticed since i have been trading cricket full time so far in 2024 is that i have become more successful at trading white-ball, and obviously is because i am able to watch the games and make quicker decisions.In 2024 there have been a total of 10 tests so far, with no draws. According to the FTP, there is planned to be a total of (surprisingly) 50+ tests in 2024., which sorta goes against the 'Tests are dying' mantra. I notice that a lot of nations are now starting to play international cricket in the traditional northern hemisphere summer - such as BAN,WI,SL.
I also notice the MCC has proposed from 2028 that all Test series has a minimum of 3 Tests per series. The paradox of that is that Graeme Smith is on the ICC panel promoting this, yet he is the major reason for SA currently sending a much weakened test team to NZ because of his huge influence in SA20. -
@Stuart-Wallace I played in the Waikato school boys cricket semi final at Seddon park in 1986 v Hamilton Boys high school, featuring Shane Thompson who at schoolboy level was a super quick, very erratic bowler. It was the first time Id ever worn a helmet! We batted first, they rolled us for about 60 and after all the hype I managed to get myself out to a spin bowler.
Not sure that will help you much
(yes, it will probably be green early)
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NZ v SA 2nd test tonight at Hamilton. Weather is looking fine for all 5 days (if it gets that far)
Stats: there has been 2 draws out of last 10 tests (although because of the weakness of the SA team this is likely to be irrelevant) - however the interesting stat to me is that all of the last 10 tests at Hamilton has seen the side winning the toss elect to field, my assumption being is that Hamilton, because of its location, usually shows a tinge of green at start?.My thoughts were,before finding out the above, that because SA elected to field in 1st test, that it was almost certain that NZ would bat first regardless, and therefore i was looking to back the draw in from 9 (current) into 6 and then get back on LTD when SA bat. however, not so sure now and will wait til toss has taken place before entering.
Thoughts?
