BTC Cricket Trading Thread

Nathan Bennett

Sean Fitzgerald

@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

Anyone more astute than me with a weather report
Did i hear BJ say full day likely /
BJ is hopeless on the mic tho

Another LAY 1.6

I’m not watching at the moment (kids swimming lessons ) but it’s blazing sunshine at my place (50kms away) and the weather radar looks completely clear. Feel like we’re good for a while at least.

Nathan Bennett

Anyone more astute than me with a weather report
Did i hear BJ say full day likely /
BJ is hopeless on the mic tho

Another LAY 1.6

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Back in the Green. Looking at a lay of Aus to try and catch a weather/early wickets drift.

Nathan Bennett

Bang all out
Come on ENG have these AUS 3/10 haha

Nathan Bennett

If rains hit after lunch ish
Going to be an interesting Test for Patrick potentially
As far as a possible declaration on final day

This be where he’s judged (by us draw layers mainly ha) but cowboy media etc

Stuart Wallace

Whilst we shouldnt really be discussing these things now in the middle of a Test, watching Stokes bat with an obvious side strain leads to start thinking about the England line up for Hobart, and can see whoelsale changes. Apparently Pope has been practicing in nets last couple of days as a keeper so, i would expect several changes....
Hameed,Stokes,Buttler and Leach out with Burns,Lawrence,Pope and Robinson back in

So, a line-up of
Burns
Crawley
Malan
Root
Baristow
Lawrence
Pope
Robinson
Wood
Anderson
Broad

EDIT Carrying on from this, Billings has been called into squad, so will likely make his debut instead of Buttler.

Sean Fitzgerald

@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11460&animate=6

i suppose easiest thing is to keep an eye on the webcam

https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11460&animate=6

I’m about 50kms from Sydney. It’s midnight at the moment and absolutely pouring with rain.

Forecast for the day here looks poor. Looks most likely to be worst from about 1pm onward. Fingers crossed it’s horribly wrong!

Nathan Bennett

@richard-futter have to think that price could be there abouts in final INNS ish
Im expecting swings
Definitely expecting NZ apply themselves better with bat and ball
Spinner comes in the side surely

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NZ and Bangladesh a funny one for me as everything is telling me it would be a tidy lay but motivation from NZ will be huge and I guess a lot of it depends on who decides to bat first and the first hour of play.

As NZ are so heavily favoured it can take a lot for the market to turn against them and can see total domination from Bangladesh again.

I'll probably wait and see if draw odds can come into the equation on this one, especially with it being an overnight test as don't fancy too many more night shifts.

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Initial research suggests it is definitely a bat first pitch

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@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

Weather looks set fair for Christchurch and you have to think NZ are good value even at 1.25. Lightning doesn't strike twice. Does it?

I was considering the lay of NZ given how much markets swing. However I need to look into the typical scores at the ground as perhaps Bangladesh were aided by an easy pitch?

Think given the odds and my preferred method of lower liabilities I'll have to either lay NZ or wait for the draw price to come in should there be big partnerships in the first innings

Richard Futter

Weather looks set fair for Christchurch and you have to think NZ are good value even at 1.25. Lightning doesn't strike twice. Does it?

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Thanks for sharing that Stuart, i'll keep an eye on that as it gets closer to start time.

Anyone managed to catch the man who bought cricket mini series on sky yet?

Remember the whole situation well, i'm just about to watch the final episode, well worth a watch.

Stuart Wallace

@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11460&animate=6

i suppose easiest thing is to keep an eye on the webcam

https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11460&animate=6

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I've been trusting my usual weather radar which has been pretty good so far during play but seems to be way out 12-24 hours before so have dug around other weather reports and doesn't seem to be as bad.

I've been tapping up people going to the ground in the morning on twitter for weather updates so I guess it's worth a decent lay now at 1.38 if we get 5 sessions there is no way it can stay odds on for full 5 sessions.

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Currently looks like a good chance of play first thing. One quick wicket and I can't see Broad or Anderson lasting long. Even with the downward pressure on the draw, a bit of sunshine in the morning could see some upwards movement.

That's what I'm hoping, anyway... I need to keep up my track record of turning early red back into green! Hopefully one day I will be turning early green into even more green.

Nathan Bennett

@stuart-wallace good !!! saw couple tweets suggestion massive stuff but if so all happening now for a few hours
Think every day we’ve seen draw ease before scheduled start times
Could again

Stuart Wallace

@richard-futter said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

@tom-david-1 It'll move quite a bit if there's a wicket or two; the weather forecasts have been way off the mark so far, so I'm not setting too much store by them. I just think that sort of price is great value with two days to play.

Accuweather saying there is only going to be 1 hour of rain in Sydney tomorrow

https://www.accuweather.com/en/au/sydney/22889/daily-weather-forecast/22889?day=2

Stuart Wallace

@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

Draw is currently around 1.85, if weather is good, and Eng get off to bad start then i can see that heading off to 4s - anybody agree?

even at 38-4 it only reached 3.5