BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Smith reverse sweep slog
Yip
Declaration soon ishI'll be backing PAK for a back to lay some point
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Morning BTC!
I promised some opinions on the IPL outright market and have the following to offer...
Typically in any T20 tournament you need specialists. It's all well and good having a squad of allrounders but if you want to win matches you need specialist top order batsmen, specialist pace and spin bowlers, and then a mix of middle order allrounders. Therefore the 2 teams that I think are overpriced (not necessarily win but represent good value to me) are:
Delhi Capitals. (Circa 7.0)
Lead by one of if not the best wk/bat players in the world (de kock/jonny being the others), Pant is the sort of player who can change games. Complimented by opening order batsmen like Warner, Powell, Seifert and Sarfaraz and a bowling attack that includes Nortje, M Marsh, Thakur, Ngidi and Yadav plus a huge compliment of local talent, I think they have an excellent chance of making the playoffs.
They're in pool A with MI/KKR/RR/LSG.Punjab Kings. (Circa 11)
Lead by one of last years top batsmen, Mayank Agarwal, they have a really good allround balance. Batsmen also include Shikar Dhawan and Jonny Bairstow, backed up by the explosive Livingstone and Odean Smith. Their bowling lineup also includes KG, Chahar and Sandeep Singh.
They're in pool B with CSK/SRH/RCB/GT.These teams have a 0 titles between them which is a comcern but as mentioned they represent value given their strength in depth.
The only other one I shortlisted was CSK (circa 9) but I chose PK in that pool as CSK are very short in the specialist batsmen list... lots of allrounders but I worry they may not get the runs on the board.
Finally, the favourites are MI who have a tremendous batting lineup but other than Bumrah appear to be light in the wicket taking department. They may be relying on the "we're gonna score 1 more than you" strategy.
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FAKASTAN comedy
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currently 3.5 for LTD interests me - a couple of early wickets should see that rise sharply , could be overcompensation for first 2 matches.
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@stuart-wallace cheers for the update
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@andy Early indications are that its a green deckwith a lot more bounce and carry than A and B, therefore i would be tempted on Lay the batting side early doors and reassess after 12 overs
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@nathan-bennett Aus should be able to get Pak in for 3.5/3.75 sessions at least
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Balls on the line
LAYING DRAW LAHORE (I would take 6-7’s)
Wickets great
Surely market won’t go miles away from me if bat all day
Declaration depends on how big balls Cummins has so far seen two tests two passive on declarations
If aus big lead and when looks likely declare I’ll BACK TO LAY PAK for a swing -
Keen to hear people's read on ENG v WI. 1st thoughts are B2L the draw hoping to flip big on it and laying the fielding side 1st dig.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andrew-macdonald thanks mate. Nice when it works out as you hope.
It's a little insight into my thought processes. I need to plan as it stops emotional betting which i have fallen prey to far too many times and it never goes well for me. I need to know my entry and exit points clearly.
Key wicket Miller has gone now and Bangladesh into 1.2 or so. This is nowhere near par from SA.
When you consider the performances of SA v IND a month or so back, and now this v BAN - a real shocking display and performance in this series - very un-SA like and maybe symptomatic of the change in SA psyche since the days of Smith,Kallis,Amal,ABDV,Steyn,Pollock et al.
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@andrew-macdonald thanks mate. Nice when it works out as you hope.
It's a little insight into my thought processes. I need to plan as it stops emotional betting which i have fallen prey to far too many times and it never goes well for me. I need to know my entry and exit points clearly.
Key wicket Miller has gone now and Bangladesh into 1.2 or so. This is nowhere near par from SA.
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@matt-ayles my god you pretty much wrote that ball for ball, outstanding
as you say unfortunate you didn't get any money but perfect reading -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Further point: Bangladesh are now over 2.0 after 23 overs... however timing is crucial here. Miller is the key wicket. Pretorius only averages 17 in ODIs which he has already exceeded so he's probably on borrowed time... as i write he edges one but its short of the keeper.
Going to stick with the plan. See out this over and the next, i expect with no wickets Bangladesh will be around 2.4 and I'll enter
One over too many!! Pretorius goes and the price crashes to 1.6! Missed that one unfortunately but pleasing to know i was on the right track
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Further point: Bangladesh are now over 2.0 after 23 overs... however timing is crucial here. Miller is the key wicket. Pretorius only averages 17 in ODIs which he has already exceeded so he's probably on borrowed time... as i write he edges one but its short of the keeper.
Going to stick with the plan. See out this over and the next, i expect with no wickets Bangladesh will be around 2.4 and I'll enter
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Was just thinking that SA have gone to pot too. Wickets everywhere this last hour.
I had greened a SA back early for just a few ticks, however am now sat with profit on them and scratch on Bangladesh.
As it stands it feels to me like the markets are about right, so I'm just watching and waiting... not much batting to come for SA so these 2 need a partnership. I'll wait until over 25 or so, and reassess. You need a minimum 200 to have any chance of defending on this pitch (according to history) which I can't see SA getting...
If Bangladesh get to 2.0 again I'll be entering a back to lay there.
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2 days left, feel like Aus will have to bat until after tea tomorrow before a declaration. I will wait - looking for a lay of Aus/the draw when I get up in the morning.
The timings for this test are good for me. I think I tend to lose green in the morning session.
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SA collapsing in the same way as PAK
Surely 2.24 LTD for PAK game is great value ?
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@luke-weston said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Did a hit and run on the draw. When they went 5 down and the draw lay price stuck at 1.5 I had to get on that. Levelled up and waiting until the next spot.
well done mate. Was looking at that too when 5 down, but didnt have any in my tiny bank to put on. Once my Bank is replenished next week (been battered by stupid decisions in both cricket and footy recently) then i will be able to get going again.
Another emotional bet on SA v BAN means i am being battered there too ! - BAN have caused me nothing but red in past couple of months - from now they are on my s**t list.
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actually draw lay till stumps safe
so knowing aus and the rate they tend to score
is the draw lay just a no brainer
and or if wickets of courseonly a stubborn 4th INNS PAK BAT will the draw go back down ?
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stumps soon
hard to see markets moving a lot
safe play lay aus till stumps if ya feel the needhoping cracking days 4&5 for launch angles
