BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@dan-mackinnon very rare for a team to win the toss and bowl, unless very overcast and/or green conditions. So, will likely need NZ to win toss to get Jimmy bowling first.
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LTD price seems to have stabilised at 2.76.
Anybody here planning to do Run lines ? might be interesting to do for first 10 overs - cant see Jimmy and Broady giving many runs away tbh.
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@dan-mackinnon The weather has been pretty unpredictable in recent days, with some T20 Blast games unexpectedly abandoned after sudden downpours,, so perhaps punters feel something similar could happen at Lord's, but as you say it would be a surprise if any day's play was totally washed out.
Also, two of the last three Tests here have finished in stalemates - including last year's match-up between the same two teams. Also big scores have been the order of the day in the County Championship so far this season, so that could be a major factor too.
Countering that, both sides have big questions to answer about their batting. The retirements of Ross Taylor and BJ Watling have had a big impact on the Kiwis, while Lees, Crawley and Pope look extremely vulnerable at the top of the England order.
If there's any early movement the draw price of around 2.7 will look very silly indeed and if the weather stays fine for day one - as looks likely - I can't see it falling much below 2.5 in the opening exchanges. That may be a good price to lay, and could give a chance of getting some early green on the board.
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@stuart-wallace Met Office has changed again. There's now no rain but cloudy on Sunday, possible rain in the morning (pre-7am). Do you think it's the weather that is pushing the draw price down? Surely it would take a full day lost to rain for the likelihood of a draw to come in?
If the potential for rain isn't until Day 4 then hopefully enough action would have happened to push that draw price back out.
Although both teams have a "reduced" bowling attack there is still quality in there and I think either side could take 20 wickets. I don't reckon much of either opening batsmen or 8-11 so it'll be the 4-7 batsmen that might decide it?
On Flashscore it says "The average first innings score of the match across the last ten Lord's Tests is 271, or 312 for the four teams that won batting first". It'll be good if England win the toss, elect to bowl and Jimmy and Broad get stuck in during the first session and bowl them out Day 1 for 250. Simple really isn't it?
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@dan-mackinnon said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I see the draw price for the ENG vs NZ test is 3.0. That suggests a 33% chance of a draw, does that seem right?
Iāve looked at the Met Office and thereās only a small chance of rain on Saturday and Monday.
You would expect England will be up for it with Stokes and McCullum and possibly play quite aggressively. A lot of players for both sides are coming in from the IPL, does that have much of an impact? Would they still be in an aggressive full on mode?
Looking at both teams there seems to be a slightly weaker bowling and who knows when it comes to England batting! Hopefully Root finds his form again. Stokes seems a bit more aggressive captain than Root so hopefully heāll push for a result regardless of what happens
Thanks Dan.
Strange how weather websites have different stories, as the one i use (as it provides wind speeds too) XC Weather has all days in St Johns Wood being clear of rain, except for Sunday which looks like being a total washout !...
A few things to point out...
- This game is being played on the exact same dates as last year v NZ, with also 1 day being a complete washout. (was a draw)
- Along with Sydney and Antigua, Lord's has one of the highest ratios for draws (4 in last 14).
- IMO, despite NZ having Williamson (still doubts over whether he has recovered fully from injury, although Simon Doull says he has) and Conway (200 in that test last year on debut), they look a bit light in the batting , with Taylor and Watling both now retired, it seems that De Grandhomme will bat at 5 and Mitchell at 6.
Also, it seems doubtful that Boult will play after having played in IPL final on SUnday and only arriving in London on Monday.
IPL fatigue may play a small part, however both teams are fairly light in terms of players who competed in IPL (Bairstow is only one i can think of for England, and NZ have Williamson,Boult and Jamieson)
LAy price is now 2.76 , and is very tempting, but it seems the market is looking at the weather and thinking the rain will have a big influence and sending the price downwards.
My view is that you might only need 4 days play to get a result - consider a situation of Jimmy and Broady opening the bowling on Thursday, with a slight green tinge, trying to prove a point, and if they get Conway and Williamson early, then game fully on for a result.
I'm gonna 1) Monitor the price 2) wait for toss. If price drops below 2.5 (as seems likely considering the current movement), then i'm in, expecting a few wickets in 1st session as Englands top order has shown to be very brittle also. If Williamson or Conway gets stuck-in then look to bail out to re-enter later.
EDIT: Have listened to Nathans comment and have jumped in at 2.76.
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Please no rain for the test !
Hopefully rock bottom odds right now
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I see the draw price for the ENG vs NZ test is 3.0. That suggests a 33% chance of a draw, does that seem right?
Iāve looked at the Met Office and thereās only a small chance of rain on Saturday and Monday.
You would expect England will be up for it with Stokes and McCullum and possibly play quite aggressively. A lot of players for both sides are coming in from the IPL, does that have much of an impact? Would they still be in an aggressive full on mode?
Looking at both teams there seems to be a slightly weaker bowling and who knows when it comes to England batting! Hopefully Root finds his form again. Stokes seems a bit more aggressive captain than Root so hopefully heāll push for a result regardless of what happens
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@stuart-wallace quick in and out when 5th wicket taken for 14% return on stake
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Scotland,without their 2 opening bowlers who have gone back to their counties are looking a good lay price at 1.6.
This game being played at Pearland Cricket Ground............in Texas !Possible chance of rain in Pearland, and SCO way behind on DL
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Only the Yorkshire match left to get matched... although at the moment the bigger concern is completed matches.
Should come play down here, beautiful sunshine on the south coast, not a cloud in the sky!
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Scotland,without their 2 opening bowlers who have gone back to their counties are looking a good lay price at 1.6.
This game being played at Pearland Cricket Ground............in Texas ! -
I'd venture to say that is a reasonable score from Ned for 45 overs... yet WI still around 1.3 which feels short given their recent ODI form.
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Matt, out of interest, are you going to do your IPL strategy on the English 20/20 and 100 games ? I might give it a try for a month or so.
Yes and no mate... unlike the IPL where the teams were all very evenly matched and the markets swung loads, the Blast has less evenly matched teams.
So yes I am trading them but I'm doing alot more research pre-match to try and create a model of what should happen... and if I can't decide or it's too risky I like to wait until the end of the powerplay and see what the position is.
One of my favourite strategies is to back/lay the Fav for 11 ticks and then green up to create a "free bet" on one side of the market but that requires predicting if the Fav is gonna come in or drift (look at the averages of the openers and how many powerplay wickets the bowlers usually take etc). That doesn't always win though as you only get green on the fav and if they go on to lose you scratch your hard work.
It's not without risks, i had a loss on Hampshire yesterday as they never matched, but over the last 2 months I'm around 40 points up... i guess its abour finding ways that work for you.
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@matt-ayles Matt, out of interest, are you going to do your IPL strategy on the English 20/20 and 100 games ? I might give it a try for a month or so.
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@tom-david-1 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
market massively underestimating netherlands this morning, overs lines have had lots of value, no doubt there will be a change in momentum at some point but 230-260 looks likely here so second innings should be nice to trade
NED best batter, Scott Edwards, is in right now.
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@dan-mackinnon said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles I wouldn't usually go watch Hampshire, it's just that my mate said about going to watch his future brother-in-law. I live in Croydon so Beckenham is closest but I used to watch Surrey at the Oval a lot. Luckily it's a straightforward journey down to Southampton. I've yet to go up north to watch any but that's definitely on the to-do list at some point.
I went to The Hundred last summer and didn't enjoy it. I think it's good for neutrals or those getting into cricket, but when I attend games I often go with my mates to have a few beers and there just so happens to be some cricket on. I almost had to take a loan out just to get a round in at The Hundred! Plus I feel you can miss so much just queuing for a beer.
Yeah, they should have a bloke going round with a beer barrel on his back and dispenser like they do at German football games that way they sell more, and you dont miss any action.
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Used to go to Oval and Ageas Bowl (lovely ground) a lot , with Surrey being my team (despite having lived in Kent most of my life- it was a lot simpler for me to get to The Oval on the bus than having to Schlepp down to Canterbury).
Was hoping to get to a few games this season, however, my base of work this summer is likely to be Suffolk - so might be able to get to Chelmsford now and again.
Was hoping to do a bit of 'gamesiding' trading wise with an Ipad to try to beat the Sky 5 second delay..anybody done that before? -
@matt-ayles I wouldn't usually go watch Hampshire, it's just that my mate said about going to watch his future brother-in-law. I live in Croydon so Beckenham is closest but I used to watch Surrey at the Oval a lot. Luckily it's a straightforward journey down to Southampton. I've yet to go up north to watch any but that's definitely on the to-do list at some point.
I went to The Hundred last summer and didn't enjoy it. I think it's good for neutrals or those getting into cricket, but when I attend games I often go with my mates to have a few beers and there just so happens to be some cricket on. I almost had to take a loan out just to get a round in at The Hundred! Plus I feel you can miss so much just queuing for a beer.
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@dan-mackinnon i have tickets for The Hundred at the Ageas in the summer but not seem Hampshire play before. I tend to follow them as I live in Dorset who don't have a first class team and Somerset is too far north for us Southern folk lol.
In trading terms this morning I had a lay of Windies at 1.15 and removed liability when they touched 1.3. I think I saw a stat earlier that said every match that had 250+ first innings runs had been successfully defended at this ground and if they can keep wickets in hand Ned should get close to that at the current RR.
However I'm happy with my current position so will only re-enter if there's a clear value position.
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I've just started reading "Hitting Against the Spin" getting ready for the England tests
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hitting-Against-Spin-Cricket-Really/dp/147213124XMy friend's sister's fiancƩ (seems a longer connection when written down) is Nathan Ellis so hoping to attend a few Hampshire t20 games this summer. Plus a day out at Beckenham will have to be in order.
I'll be keeping a closer eye on this thread over the new few months. Bring on the summer!
