BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Some simple analysis of the IPL thus far.
Obvious spot is that all games have been won by team batting 2nd - would expect the main reason for this is the effect of dew on the ball for team bowling second.
Also notice that games played at Wankhede tend to be lower scoring so far, although small sample size so far.
I only really look at last 3-4 years but wankhede is generally good scoring (170ish off memory) with a trend to the chase (60% again off memory). I do have the venue marked as a chase watch tho.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Horrible IPL game! So one-sided! Took a low lay on RR but looks certain to be a losing trade this time. Undoes my good work on the Aus game!
Never mind, happens!
Same here, ended up about net zero !
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Horrible IPL game! So one-sided! Took a low lay on RR but looks certain to be a losing trade this time. Undoes my good work on the Aus game!
Never mind, happens!
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Hmmm, Oz 1.12 ...tempting, especially as PAK still have their opener unbeaten on 50+
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Got a medium sized lay on PAK at moment - just think its a big total to chase - one worry i have is with the dew for the bowlers. And Babar Azam !!
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Changing the subject to IPL, I'm a little surprised that the Sunrisers aren't favourites looking at the lineups... if the Royals start well and get silly low in odds I'm going to lay them... tempted to lay them now tbh but i want to see the powerplay first.
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@luke-weston interestingly enough recently I've been able to do it consistently but I get myself into trouble trying to get a point on both sides not just one!
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Record run chase at Lahore is 316 in 63 x ODIs. Also the lowest defended total is 170 so it feels to me like Australia should be shorter than this... is that purely down to their bowling attack?
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If you could do that in every match you would be a rich man!
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I managed to get a point on Aus side of the market early but it's scratch on Pak side... this has been a common position for me recently, essentially a free bet on one team. It's fine if they win but feels like a waste when they lose!
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Just scalping Aus partnerships at the minute 1.5 points so far. Looking for a low lay of Aus for a risk free trade when Pak bat.
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LAYING AUS small for now
may do big lays if stupid low last 10 overs not like there bowling attack that flash -
Some simple analysis of the IPL thus far.
Obvious spot is that all games have been won by team batting 2nd - would expect the main reason for this is the effect of dew on the ball for team bowling second.
Also notice that games played at Wankhede tend to be lower scoring so far, although small sample size so far. -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Right then. Another good day ahead hopefully. There's an ODI underway in Lahore, and the IPL a few hours away.
No trades for me this early but will look to strike if an opportunity presents.
PAK have lost their last 7 ODI's v AUS. PAK put OZ in to bat, so my immediate thought is when that happens.....wickets ! Going to Lay AUS and then look to re-enter somewhere just after power play
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Right then. Another good day ahead hopefully. There's an ODI underway in Lahore, and the IPL a few hours away.
No trades for me this early but will look to strike if an opportunity presents.
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andy love 1.1 ish lays especially if bowling team favs
and especially if its 1st innings !!
would/could have made a lot of money yesterday if trading clinically -
@nathan-bennett cheers Nathan, some good stuff there
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@matt-ayles at one point Guj were 1.08 - in first innings !
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
T20 SOME ENTRIES I LOOK FOR
Back batting team first INNS
After 8-10-12 overs if only 2-3 down and seeing a few settled strokes / timing
Odds 1.8+ or above SP
Look to close this position end INNS or if think its a winning score @1.2 favRuns markets Back overs late in INNS 6-4 overs to go
Laying under 1.11
Especially the bowling team 2nd INNS even more so late in games
We all know this one and its crazy good when market is on your side
This point of trading becomes feel belief in whos at the crease stats help and v bowler stats pressure can be the intangible factor to counter all stats , helps more so using this sort of trade when already have banked green
Mentally feels like eliminating the gambling aspect and hope somewhatTry to avoid laying batting teams
but couple entries to lay low odds at times is
when chasing a low total
seems odd too
However don't know if its cockiness from the chasers thinking its all said and done , sometimes wickets are just thrown away
Another can be
If batting teams well on top late in there first INNS and super low fav sometimes a lay here is ok as above wickets can be thrown away but mainly whats on your side is the chasing power play to play fearless and shoot the market upMore often than not i try to free roll the low odds trades by removing liability at double or triple the entered price
[email protected] lay [email protected] back [email protected] styles
and manage from there#alwayslearning
Cheers for that nath! Few wins there already in the 3 games so far. Mumbai and Bangalore traded low whilst dominating with the bat, titans traded 1.1 and drifted heavy after having Lucknow 4 down early.
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T20 SOME ENTRIES I LOOK FOR
Back batting team first INNS
After 8-10-12 overs if only 2-3 down and seeing a few settled strokes / timing
Odds 1.8+ or above SP
Look to close this position end INNS or if think its a winning score @1.2 favRuns markets Back overs late in INNS 6-4 overs to go
Laying under 1.11
Especially the bowling team 2nd INNS even more so late in games
We all know this one and its crazy good when market is on your side
This point of trading becomes feel belief in whos at the crease stats help and v bowler stats pressure can be the intangible factor to counter all stats , helps more so using this sort of trade when already have banked green
Mentally feels like eliminating the gambling aspect and hope somewhatTry to avoid laying batting teams
but couple entries to lay low odds at times is
when chasing a low total
seems odd too
However don't know if its cockiness from the chasers thinking its all said and done , sometimes wickets are just thrown away
Another can be
If batting teams well on top late in there first INNS and super low fav sometimes a lay here is ok as above wickets can be thrown away but mainly whats on your side is the chasing power play to play fearless and shoot the market upMore often than not i try to free roll the low odds trades by removing liability at double or triple the entered price
[email protected] lay [email protected] back [email protected] styles
and manage from there#alwayslearning
