BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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a thought ...
England seem to have adopted a policy of bat last at all cost. This, aligned with the fact that the dukes ball goes dead after 20 overs this year, plus some very good batting tracks that havnt deteriorated much, and also the increased tempo that England want to bat at which nullifies bowling teams being able to get a 2nd new ball , has all helped the cause.With the SA tests to come, could this change the pre game trade by simply backing SA pre game and then exiting just before first ball is bowled to cream off the expected drop in price, in expectation of SA to always be batting first?
Im not sure the bat last theory will work as well with a) Kookaburra ball b) diff pitch conditions.
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@stephen-hancox said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stephen-hancox in same boat, only happened to me twice in seven years! This will be the third most likely. No value in taking a loss, I expect it to lose now but odds so short, always a small chance of a collapse.
Yeah, I guess the Stokes at headingley 2019 was one of those? Like you say if it's 3 times in 7 years then stats still in our favour overall.
Yep and another was either Sri Lanka or Pakistan chasing a really high total a few years back, can't remember. I agree in general with this but a footnote has to be made for England chasing high totals often now, definitely need to bare it in mind moving forward. The play really looking back on it would have been to lay odds on with lots of runs still needed then green up after the blip.
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Whatever Stokes and McCullum have dreamt up is beginning to influence test cricket in general. I saw the scoring rates of the SL v Aus game last week, about 4-5 per over. All for the positive I say, could end up with regular 5 days great entertainment, OK maybe more like 3. Specialist T20 batsmen. like Lawrence could be called up soon! Or even specialist 'back of the hand bouncer' bowlers to make it difficult to score!
A lot off my 'footie' friends have taken notice and have followed the last few tests when they wouldn't normally.
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Something interesting from reading the cricket statistics book is that it’s more favourable to bowl first. The reason being is because if you score big innings 1st or 3rd you slowly remove the possibility of a win and increase the likelihood of a draw. Also, the team that bats for the majority of day 2 tends to be in a more favourable position by the end of the match.
Do you think this is a sustainable way of playing aggressive test cricket similar to the change in ODIs or do you think it’s because of the recent IPL and things will start to calm down?
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With the way England have batted in the 4th innings this season, surely any opposition winning the toss has to take that option away from them and have them batting first obviously pitch and weather dependent
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Wow.
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Well sometimes you just have to hold your hands up. Scintillating batting from Root and Bairstow has rewritten the English cricket history book, exceeding my expectations beyond measure. You've got to fancy England to do the clean sweep later this summer when South Africa are the tourists.
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Slightly questionable captaincy from Bumrah in this test, doesn't seem like India have considered the commitment that England have shown to this new approach. Spending all that time off the field yesterday and not making the most of himself and Shami, a return of idiocy captain decisions from Pant yesterday as well wasting those two reviews, now taking a new ball which will most likely only help the lads with the bat.
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I think England will still win, but looking at our batting from Stokes onwards doesn’t fill you with confidence. Maybe I’m still stuck in the days of Broad hitting boundaries
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@martin said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stephen-hancox in same boat, only happened to me twice in seven years! This will be the third most likely. No value in taking a loss, I expect it to lose now but odds so short, always a small chance of a collapse.
Yeah, I guess the Stokes at headingley 2019 was one of those? Like you say if it's 3 times in 7 years then stats still in our favour overall.
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@stuart-wallace my trading style is to look for better reward to risk ratio,i know sometimes i misses the boat,even at LTD i hold till very late when there is more value IMO.
Anyways these last few games are good learning lessons,you can't always trust old data,in last 2 years lots of 4th inn are chased successfully in eng,aus & even in subcontinent.
Anyways better luck for future cricket trading. -
Couple early poles then 20-30 overs survival draw crashes and make a million
#simplesFull credit so far ENG
Want to see this against AUS and seam attack cry about there stats going pear shaped -
@stephen-hancox in same boat, only happened to me twice in seven years! This will be the third most likely. No value in taking a loss, I expect it to lose now but odds so short, always a small chance of a collapse.
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I layed at 4 and now thinking 'what went wrong' and tempted to overanalyse. But my view at the time was 378 4th innings is huge, so fair play to England if we make it.
Tempted to back now to minimise the loss. But batsmen have to play themselves in again tomorrow morning, bowlers will be fresher. Could easily be 300-5 then it's touch and go. I'm going to let it run, happy either way.
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@matt-ayles Yep, a learning curve. ENG seem to be re'writing the 'rules' of Test match batting - i am gonna wait until 20 mins of tomorrow morning and then bail out if no wickets with tail between my legs and enjoy hopefully a transformed ENG win.
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@stuart-wallace yes quite. Englands current test team, although hugely entertaining, are making a complete mockery of test match trading in the final innings.
Thankfully, my strategy is to never go back into the red once green is established, however i am now looking at dropping a few points worth of green. Its disappointing and if you're not careful can feel like a loss.
Important thing here, maintain discipline, never chase. Both Martin and Richard said earlier that it was a value lay, but if it goes against us then it's just one to take on the chin.
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Wow, my ENG lay getting a bit of a pasting here !
From a very healthy green to a now red !
Whats everyones thoughts on what will happen?
I'm tempted to bail out before the damage gets very hurtful ! And then hopefully enjoy Root and Bairstow just win the Test.Another point is that with ENG going at 4.35 an over - if they maintain that rate, then the new ball will only be available with approx 20/30 to get.
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Wasted review there. Was never out... that might hurt them later.
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Yeah I’ve layed some IND 1.4 want 1.8’s and peanut on draw 220 want 60
How good are tests only thing annoyed at self for not slamming a Eng lay first INNS when Ind were in trouble
