BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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I see the draw price for the ENG vs NZ test is 3.0. That suggests a 33% chance of a draw, does that seem right?
I’ve looked at the Met Office and there’s only a small chance of rain on Saturday and Monday.
You would expect England will be up for it with Stokes and McCullum and possibly play quite aggressively. A lot of players for both sides are coming in from the IPL, does that have much of an impact? Would they still be in an aggressive full on mode?
Looking at both teams there seems to be a slightly weaker bowling and who knows when it comes to England batting! Hopefully Root finds his form again. Stokes seems a bit more aggressive captain than Root so hopefully he’ll push for a result regardless of what happens
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@stuart-wallace quick in and out when 5th wicket taken for 14% return on stake
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Scotland,without their 2 opening bowlers who have gone back to their counties are looking a good lay price at 1.6.
This game being played at Pearland Cricket Ground............in Texas !Possible chance of rain in Pearland, and SCO way behind on DL
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Only the Yorkshire match left to get matched... although at the moment the bigger concern is completed matches.
Should come play down here, beautiful sunshine on the south coast, not a cloud in the sky!
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Scotland,without their 2 opening bowlers who have gone back to their counties are looking a good lay price at 1.6.
This game being played at Pearland Cricket Ground............in Texas ! -
I'd venture to say that is a reasonable score from Ned for 45 overs... yet WI still around 1.3 which feels short given their recent ODI form.
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Matt, out of interest, are you going to do your IPL strategy on the English 20/20 and 100 games ? I might give it a try for a month or so.
Yes and no mate... unlike the IPL where the teams were all very evenly matched and the markets swung loads, the Blast has less evenly matched teams.
So yes I am trading them but I'm doing alot more research pre-match to try and create a model of what should happen... and if I can't decide or it's too risky I like to wait until the end of the powerplay and see what the position is.
One of my favourite strategies is to back/lay the Fav for 11 ticks and then green up to create a "free bet" on one side of the market but that requires predicting if the Fav is gonna come in or drift (look at the averages of the openers and how many powerplay wickets the bowlers usually take etc). That doesn't always win though as you only get green on the fav and if they go on to lose you scratch your hard work.
It's not without risks, i had a loss on Hampshire yesterday as they never matched, but over the last 2 months I'm around 40 points up... i guess its abour finding ways that work for you.
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@matt-ayles Matt, out of interest, are you going to do your IPL strategy on the English 20/20 and 100 games ? I might give it a try for a month or so.
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@tom-david-1 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
market massively underestimating netherlands this morning, overs lines have had lots of value, no doubt there will be a change in momentum at some point but 230-260 looks likely here so second innings should be nice to trade
NED best batter, Scott Edwards, is in right now.
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@dan-mackinnon said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles I wouldn't usually go watch Hampshire, it's just that my mate said about going to watch his future brother-in-law. I live in Croydon so Beckenham is closest but I used to watch Surrey at the Oval a lot. Luckily it's a straightforward journey down to Southampton. I've yet to go up north to watch any but that's definitely on the to-do list at some point.
I went to The Hundred last summer and didn't enjoy it. I think it's good for neutrals or those getting into cricket, but when I attend games I often go with my mates to have a few beers and there just so happens to be some cricket on. I almost had to take a loan out just to get a round in at The Hundred! Plus I feel you can miss so much just queuing for a beer.
Yeah, they should have a bloke going round with a beer barrel on his back and dispenser like they do at German football games that way they sell more, and you dont miss any action.
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Used to go to Oval and Ageas Bowl (lovely ground) a lot , with Surrey being my team (despite having lived in Kent most of my life- it was a lot simpler for me to get to The Oval on the bus than having to Schlepp down to Canterbury).
Was hoping to get to a few games this season, however, my base of work this summer is likely to be Suffolk - so might be able to get to Chelmsford now and again.
Was hoping to do a bit of 'gamesiding' trading wise with an Ipad to try to beat the Sky 5 second delay..anybody done that before? -
@matt-ayles I wouldn't usually go watch Hampshire, it's just that my mate said about going to watch his future brother-in-law. I live in Croydon so Beckenham is closest but I used to watch Surrey at the Oval a lot. Luckily it's a straightforward journey down to Southampton. I've yet to go up north to watch any but that's definitely on the to-do list at some point.
I went to The Hundred last summer and didn't enjoy it. I think it's good for neutrals or those getting into cricket, but when I attend games I often go with my mates to have a few beers and there just so happens to be some cricket on. I almost had to take a loan out just to get a round in at The Hundred! Plus I feel you can miss so much just queuing for a beer.
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@dan-mackinnon i have tickets for The Hundred at the Ageas in the summer but not seem Hampshire play before. I tend to follow them as I live in Dorset who don't have a first class team and Somerset is too far north for us Southern folk lol.
In trading terms this morning I had a lay of Windies at 1.15 and removed liability when they touched 1.3. I think I saw a stat earlier that said every match that had 250+ first innings runs had been successfully defended at this ground and if they can keep wickets in hand Ned should get close to that at the current RR.
However I'm happy with my current position so will only re-enter if there's a clear value position.
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I've just started reading "Hitting Against the Spin" getting ready for the England tests
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hitting-Against-Spin-Cricket-Really/dp/147213124XMy friend's sister's fiancé (seems a longer connection when written down) is Nathan Ellis so hoping to attend a few Hampshire t20 games this summer. Plus a day out at Beckenham will have to be in order.
I'll be keeping a closer eye on this thread over the new few months. Bring on the summer!
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market massively underestimating netherlands this morning, overs lines have had lots of value, no doubt there will be a change in momentum at some point but 230-260 looks likely here so second innings should be nice to trade
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hopefully market perceives NED score to be around 250+ and see 1.5's be nice
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Similar to yourself, I got in around 1.13, took out too early, great start for Netherlands, hopefully we can get a game out of this, bet365 stream is very good, almost no delay
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Partnerships in progress for NED against WI
Have had a lay while on road got in shorter than current 1.17 took some out 1.25 for insurance
looking at holding for some time now see where this goes -
@stuart-wallace +4 points yesterday mate. Really pleasing. Thank you.
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@matt-ayles how did it go?
been really busy past couple of days, so no trading for me.
