BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@sameer interestingly i actually backed England further during the innings change as i felt 4.1 was excellent value. That then pushed the exit requirement much higher so potentially just a couple of powerplay wickets would have been enough, let alone what happened.
I am finding cricket trading unlike anything else. I often get asked about stop losses, but the issue with a financial stop loss is that can often be hit early thanks to unexpected wickets, like today, but then you watch your initial trade go green after taking a loss...
I prefer a time loss rather than a money loss, for example, I'll watch India until the end of their powerplay and if its still going against me I'll trade out...
I'd love to hear peoples thoughts on this.
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@matt-ayles yeah mate,i was wishing you hold your trade.
well done -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
As expected, little to no swing, this takes away some of Indias power... i have had a back of England at 1.75, looking to exit between 1.4 - 1.5 and will reassess.
If England set anything between 250-300 I'd expect their odds to be around 1.6 which may be a value lay if India can get in... but we're getting ahead of ourselves.
Ahh trading. How much fun you can be... back at 1.75, 30 mins later England have collapsed again. Marvellous.
Holding for now as England bat deep.
Patience is everything in cricket trading. Yet again pays off.
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what a turn around,laid india after rohit's wicket at 1.59,now squaring book at 1.22
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When the spin comes on after a good batting start
Bossing it -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
As expected, little to no swing, this takes away some of Indias power... i have had a back of England at 1.75, looking to exit between 1.4 - 1.5 and will reassess.
If England set anything between 250-300 I'd expect their odds to be around 1.6 which may be a value lay if India can get in... but we're getting ahead of ourselves.
Ahh trading. How much fun you can be... back at 1.75, 30 mins later England have collapsed again. Marvellous.
Holding for now as England bat deep.
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As expected, little to no swing, this takes away some of Indias power... i have had a back of England at 1.75, looking to exit between 1.4 - 1.5 and will reassess.
If England set anything between 250-300 I'd expect their odds to be around 1.6 which may be a value lay if India can get in... but we're getting ahead of ourselves.
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Small bet
ENG IND
runs under 302 -
India won the toss and bowl...
I honestly can't see England doing as badly as the other day... however I'm not confident enough to have a pre-match trade.
Trading plan however remains the same, see how the powerplay goes. Average at Lords of only mid 200s but i think these teams are better than that, on a sunny hot day etc.
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There was a time many years ago when i had a Celtic home win v Dunfermline to complete my ACCA. Celtic were top, and had won every home game that season, Dunfermline were bottom without a win...what happened... of course,Dunfermline won 1-0. The following week it was the same fixture in the cup and Celtic won 7-0.
The moral of the story is that since then i have swerved all trading with a Scottish theme. Until today.!!
Thanks Scotland for effing up my day again. Cant even beat Nepal - this is almost the Cricket equivalent of Celtic v Dunfermline. Mothers! -
@stuart-wallace yeah green taken. That went as hoped.
Nothing else in the diary for me today, back for another crack at England tomorrow.
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Sorta as expected, WIN struggling against the spin, currently 44-4
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BTW, heres a simple DL calc...
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Looks like Scotland have decided to mimic England's performance yesterday, currently 51/6 against Nepal
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Did a little bit of analysis on the WI v BAN game...
Rain is forecast.
A lot (about 50 per cent) of the games at Guyana over the last 10 ODI's have resulted in sub 200 scores for the batting team, with spin being in dominance.
WI have only won 1 of last 5 ODI's, BAN 3.
My play is likely to be to lay the team batting first, in view of the low scores and also that team batting second tends to get an advantage in shortened games. And/or take Matts advice and take the value trade of WI lay.
Might be a game to keep a close eye on the D/L.
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WI v Bangladesh.
Seems this is the one format the Windies simply don't like. The last game saw them plod along at test level run rates, losing wickets regularly. Bangladesh however have a good record in ODIs.
I think an initial lay of the Windies would be a value play.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace yes it can. I had a bad day today. Thought England were value early on given the players they had to come. Trade never recovered. Some red numbers today.
Having reflected on this overnight, i don't think it was a bad trade. I think variance kicked my *ss but there's no way you could have predicted England flop like that.
India, in my opinion, have the best bowling lineup on the international stage. However, how many of those England players are amongst the best batters in the world? Most of them played in the IPL, Buttler won the orange cap etc... so it wasn't unrealistic to think they'd recover and at least post a half decent total.
Seeing as India won the toss and chose to bowl, you could argue backing them would have been value but they were around 1.5 i think after Roy fell, and if England had smashed 6s all around the park that would have gone wrong...
Anyway, we move on!
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Any views on WI v BAN game tomorrow?
Odds not great on WI , Back odds of 1.53 at present. -
@stuart-wallace yes it can. I had a bad day today. Thought England were value early on given the players they had to come. Trade never recovered. Some red numbers today.
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Well, what do i know !
SOooo lucky today, was going to exit after Roy wicket, but wi-fi was playing up and couldnt get on. When i did get on ,ENG were 5 down , and my India back at 1.96 had slipped to 1.15 ...happy days...and all purely by accident.
Really shows that you need totally repsonsive internet to do this successfully, else next time it could go the other way.
