BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@matt-ayles When it comes to thunderstorms you really cannot count on forecasts because exactly where they fall is extremely unpredictable. Radar is the only way, and it was clear from the outset that any rain was several hours away.
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Draw price went down to 2.8, i loaded up at that and have greened up at 10, wouldn't be surprised to see if under 3 again. On an England lay now from 1.71.
Seen much worse starts from England to be fair, all part of the Bazball brand, give them a decent 1st innings lead and chase down with ease
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Where's this effing rain ????!!!!!!
Yeah my thoughts exactly!! My trading plan for this match was let the draw price crash and enter overnight... now I'm thinking I've missed the low odds.
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Where's this effing rain ????!!!!!!
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Never rely on forecasts; I'm definitely a radar man, and it looks to me there's a good chance Lord's will escape the worst of the storms during the early part of the afternoon. The main rain has given Brighton a good soaking but seems to be slipping to the west of north London. Trouble is there is some really torrential, localised rain to the south east which might strike between 3-4 and if that happens that will probably be it for the day, when the draw price will shorten quickly. In the long run, though, I still think the draw will trade very high later in the match - and very probably at 1000 on the final day.
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SA win toss and bowl.
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@stuart-wallace No rain at the moment.... looks pretty gloomy and humid; might be a very good morning to bowl if the precipitation holds off for a while. Looking at the radar I reckon we should have an uninterrupted first session. Fingers crossed. Everyone seems to think that if he wins the toss Stokes will bowl, while SA might well bat first if the spin falls their way. If that's true, the toss is entirely academic.
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
somebody has lumped on big on LTD ' price gone out to 3.5.
Rain expected all day.Back down to 3.2 quickly.
There's only one way this is going today , and it aint north. Its about judging the best time to jump in on draw. -
Doing the old phone a friend for this as be in the air a couple times
If can get me set and at the time odds under 3 just going to lay 500
If odds 3.4 ish might back it till toss close then lay for total 500 liabilityCan’t wait to get paid in 5 days ha
Something for the battlers -
somebody has lumped on big on LTD ' price gone out to 3.5.
Rain expected all day. -
Laying the draw at 3, will be topping up if it hits evens tomorrow.
Going fairly big here
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First of all, apologies for the dreadful political advice... looks like there's no chance at all for Sunak. I'll stick to the cricket in future.
Speaking of which, it's great to have Test cricket back after all the bish-bash-bosh stuff - although with Bazball, we might not notice the difference at Lord's tomorrow.
The most important thing could be keeping an eye on the weather on day one. There could be quite a lot of rain about, so I reckon there's a good chance of the draw going well under 3.0, which would be great for draw layers.
England's all out attacking style makes a draw a massive outside bet in my opinion. Even if the first day is washed out - which is by no means guaranteed - overs can be made up and England are capable of scoring very quickly as well as being very aggressive with their field placings.
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Layed PAK at 1.07, got out at 1.15, now Backed at 1.19
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@stuart-wallace hate holidays ha massive lay for a free
Roll missed good luck
Change INNS PAK if 1.04 like would be another huge lay
Might phone a friend ha -
PAK to bat first
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NED v PAK today at Rotterdam. Weather looks good all day.
Ready to lay PAK if they bat first, until Babar comes in. Possibly lay NED if they bat first, with Shaheen toe-crushers. Edwards best batter in NED line-up by some way.
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ENG v SA i am treading carefully, for 3 reasons....
- Historically, along with Antigua and Sydney, Lords has one of the highest avergaes for draws.
- The weather will likely mean a flat track
- Lords always brings another 5 per cent out of the opposition.
However, draw price looks attractive at 3.7.
Might look for LTD at start of innings then back when Duke ball goes soft after 20 overs, as has been the case all summer.
Weather looks uninterrupted all through Test.Just read that...
- SA are current Test league leaders having not lost a series all year
- Rabada is doubtful for first Test
However, they got smashed by an innings by the Lions earlier this month.
Also just noticed some rain around on first day, then clear after. So, expect draw price to shorten until about 16.00 on day 1. -
ENG SA Hello draw price hopefully can hook into real low odds
Holidays are great and all but punting trading where it’s at ha -
I've been looking into a strategy where you'd lay a short price favourite if the bowl first... seems to have some potential as I've been finding that in the first innings powerplay there are often less wickets than the second innings PP (especially when teams are chasing big numbers).
You could certainly see out the first few overs, see how aggressively or not the underdogs are batting, and how easily boundaries are scored, and then lay the bowling side with an exit at either your chosen profit or the end of the innings.
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Not trading inbetween flights but I see UAE dominating USA
USA may not be impossible to make 2,3:1 on a trade late in UAE INNS and when USA batJust saying
