BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Boom
IND W
1.7 Eng taken all liability out -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace i genuinely believe there's legs in a lay 1.1 strategy... the Aus India game this afternoon hit it 3 times, although the England one was too one sided.
Here's my thoughts:
In matches where the 2 sides are fairly well matched on paper (regardless of pre match odds), when a team gets to 1.1 you lay them (you'd have to look at match situations but certainly first innings or early second). Your exit points are 1.2 for profit or 1.05 for loss.Assuming the 1.2 is matched at least once you're guaranteed a profit as you can repeat at 1.1, then exit at either 1.2 or 1.05 but both will be green even if it goes against you.
If your liability is 1 point for your initial trade, worst case you'd lose half a point if it goes against you. However, as I've seen recently this can happen several times in a match so your wins could be very good.
You'd not need a very high strike rate either as your max loss per match is 0.5 points but even those games where you only get 1 match of 1.2 are going to get that back, and once you get 3 or 4 matches you're laughing.
Thoughts?
Interesting, let me digest that. IS this the 1.1 theory that you and Nathan have been discussing?
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auto laying here
in @1.12 some insurance at 1.24 if happens and or assess end of INNS ishinsurance tick took 1/3rd stake back
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eyeing some time at crease strike rotation and a mass eng lay if happy
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dead rubber theory kicking in early womans ENG IND
totally missed it ha -
@stuart-wallace i genuinely believe there's legs in a lay 1.1 strategy... the Aus India game this afternoon hit it 3 times, although the England one was too one sided.
Here's my thoughts:
In matches where the 2 sides are fairly well matched on paper (regardless of pre match odds), when a team gets to 1.1 you lay them (you'd have to look at match situations but certainly first innings or early second). Your exit points are 1.2 for profit or 1.05 for loss.Assuming the 1.2 is matched at least once you're guaranteed a profit as you can repeat at 1.1, then exit at either 1.2 or 1.05 but both will be green even if it goes against you.
If your liability is 1 point for your initial trade, worst case you'd lose half a point if it goes against you. However, as I've seen recently this can happen several times in a match so your wins could be very good.
You'd not need a very high strike rate either as your max loss per match is 0.5 points but even those games where you only get 1 match of 1.2 are going to get that back, and once you get 3 or 4 matches you're laughing.
Thoughts?
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@brian-doe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Hi all, wondering if anyone could tip a T20 strategy to use? My brain is a bit scrambled trying to research something relatively consistent to give a go. Thanks.
The games full of swings so don't be a favourite backer. Back value and lay unders. Even if your selections don't win the chances are they will still move in your favour at some point to exit.
Take note of the runs line before the match as well as the match odds. Theoretically if England's line is 175 and odds are 1.8, while their odds will move around, if they're still on track for 175 then their odds should be about that 1.8. Use it as a guide.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@brian-doe That's a tremendous question but I think everyone here would agree there isn't a one fits all strategy for T20s as they're so volatile. Classic example yesterday with England who put up an above par 199 and were 1.33 in the break, which most punters would have said they'd defend easily. Yet 200 runs for 0 wickets later Pakistan walk off victorious.
I think you have to treat each match as a separate event, although I do think there's something in a lay 1.1 or lower strategy when teams are more evenly matched than the market suggests. @Nathan-Bennett is the expert on this one! I'm still figuring it out.
yep, as Matt says, its really tough to have a strategy in T20 as its so volatile. I must admit i tend to go on gut feel, and reputations of batters/bowlers - for example Rashis often comes in first change after 6 overs, so i just dip in and out 4 times before and after he bowls. Aside from that i just look for obvious chances such as PAK the other night 150'0 chasing 200 and just trim a couple of points from that position. T20 is tough to have a strategy, however, i am very interested in us all getting our combined brains together to formulate a strategy for the T20 World Cup
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In an 8 over race, surely the last people you want coming in at 3 are Kohli and Smith... let the openers knock 4s for 4 overs then send in the sloggers!
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@brian-doe That's a tremendous question but I think everyone here would agree there isn't a one fits all strategy for T20s as they're so volatile. Classic example yesterday with England who put up an above par 199 and were 1.33 in the break, which most punters would have said they'd defend easily. Yet 200 runs for 0 wickets later Pakistan walk off victorious.
I think you have to treat each match as a separate event, although I do think there's something in a lay 1.1 or lower strategy when teams are more evenly matched than the market suggests. @Nathan-Bennett is the expert on this one! I'm still figuring it out.
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Hi all, wondering if anyone could tip a T20 strategy to use? My brain is a bit scrambled trying to research something relatively consistent to give a go. Thanks.
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@matt-ayles spew no fill up .. pitty too late trade me but yes the NZ woman are fruits kiwi fruits never a easy win in them
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Had a really frustrating time trading the windies this afternoon. Did meticulous research, was confident that Windies would lose early wickets based on their top order batting averages, and my plan was to lay NZ when Matthews came in.
Went perfectly, 3 early wickets, nice lay of NZ, but one thing that i could not predict was the Windies going along at less than 3 an over for the majority of the innings! Baffling tactics, and it meant NZ price never really drifted despite Windies not losing a wicket for 14 overs!
Any other match thats green... I exited the trade for a tiny loss when Matthews fell, and I'm happy as i executed exactly to plan, but frustrating none the less.
One thing i did pick up on though: NZ went from 1.1 to 1.2 4 times during the Windies innings... so you could have repeated that 4 times, plus a 5th during their own innings. That would have been a decent strategy.
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easy late pickings laying England when PAK were 150-0 chasing 200.
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles nice
and when 100/1 what price ausbloody time zones ha
Mate,aus after 9 over 99 for 1 & aus odds were 1.93.
At start of 2nd inn ind ' odd were 1.23 -
Eng W chasing a world record here. Price for India only 1.1 as it stands but on run rates if England managed a 100 partnership for the next wicket or the one after the price could become attractive. Worth following...
Amazing how the ball after i post this is a wicket.
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@matt-ayles nice
and when 100/1 what price ausbloody time zones ha
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@nathan-bennett yes mate, they were around 4.2
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Anyone no what odds aus were start chase lastnight
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@stuart-wallace night games could be 7pm kick offs eastern states . cant be sure at this stage
