BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace nice research, that's exactly what i have written down. I also made a note that in both previous matches, both teams run rates were over 10, so they're both clearly very strong batting lineups. (India v Aus).
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@matt-ayles I think the India v Aus game is on Hesgoal.com - most of the games normally are, albeit severely delayed.
A few tit-bits of research done so far...
IND v AUS - Venue Hyderabad...only 1 recent T20 , with first innings scoring 209.
PAK v ENG - Venue Karachi... venue regularly (8 times in last 10) has first innings total over 200. It is a new pitch today which should also help.
Ideas...
- Back team batting first - especially PAK with Babar and Rizwan opening.
- Lay ENG when Nawaz comes on to bowl, as he regularly creates a hand-brake.
- Lay ENG when Malan comes in for first 10 balls for same reason as it takes him a while to get going.
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@stuart-wallace yeah absolutely. There probably won't be much trading for the first hour unless there's a flurry of wickets early to push a price to 1.1
Is the Australia game on BT? I can get that but it'll be online so delayed a minute... although this strategy doesn't necessarily require entirely live pictures.
Edit: it is not.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Stuart-Wallace what's the plan this afternoon? Watch the games live, stay on the forum to discuss etc?
I'll post copies of all my pre match research if you like? (I've not done it yet).
That would be great Matt, i am working today until about 4pm, but will likely be able to trade from 2.30 intermittently then full on from 4.
So, are you looking to trade the 2 big games...India and Pakistan?
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@Stuart-Wallace what's the plan this afternoon? Watch the games live, stay on the forum to discuss etc?
I'll post copies of all my pre match research if you like? (I've not done it yet).
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CPL
Amazon warriors LAY 1.07 stake taking out 1.18
See what happens few quick boundaries 1.4 be niceno fill up no damage done
TBH likes of pollard and russel are just losers these days havn't been able to play spin for years i just went with laying low and bat over ball -
@stuart-wallace sounds good to me.
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace yes !! it’s one of my go too’s get involved . Amazing how often doubling tripling odds happen in no time
Profitable asok, i've had time to think about this.
How about we (thinking @Matt-Ayles too) all pinpoint a game where we all trade it with this strategy, and see what we find?How about targeting both of these? I know this might create some time zone challenges for Nathan, but maybe he can come in for second innings?
Anyone else interested in this?
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Happy days
Greened a stack letting some roll
Wowee ENG 1.09 starting chase low as 1.05 insane -
@stuart-wallace yes !! it’s one of my go too’s get involved . Amazing how often doubling tripling odds happen in no time
Profitable as -
Boom
IND W
1.7 Eng taken all liability out -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace i genuinely believe there's legs in a lay 1.1 strategy... the Aus India game this afternoon hit it 3 times, although the England one was too one sided.
Here's my thoughts:
In matches where the 2 sides are fairly well matched on paper (regardless of pre match odds), when a team gets to 1.1 you lay them (you'd have to look at match situations but certainly first innings or early second). Your exit points are 1.2 for profit or 1.05 for loss.Assuming the 1.2 is matched at least once you're guaranteed a profit as you can repeat at 1.1, then exit at either 1.2 or 1.05 but both will be green even if it goes against you.
If your liability is 1 point for your initial trade, worst case you'd lose half a point if it goes against you. However, as I've seen recently this can happen several times in a match so your wins could be very good.
You'd not need a very high strike rate either as your max loss per match is 0.5 points but even those games where you only get 1 match of 1.2 are going to get that back, and once you get 3 or 4 matches you're laughing.
Thoughts?
Interesting, let me digest that. IS this the 1.1 theory that you and Nathan have been discussing?
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auto laying here
in @1.12 some insurance at 1.24 if happens and or assess end of INNS ishinsurance tick took 1/3rd stake back
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eyeing some time at crease strike rotation and a mass eng lay if happy
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dead rubber theory kicking in early womans ENG IND
totally missed it ha -
@stuart-wallace i genuinely believe there's legs in a lay 1.1 strategy... the Aus India game this afternoon hit it 3 times, although the England one was too one sided.
Here's my thoughts:
In matches where the 2 sides are fairly well matched on paper (regardless of pre match odds), when a team gets to 1.1 you lay them (you'd have to look at match situations but certainly first innings or early second). Your exit points are 1.2 for profit or 1.05 for loss.Assuming the 1.2 is matched at least once you're guaranteed a profit as you can repeat at 1.1, then exit at either 1.2 or 1.05 but both will be green even if it goes against you.
If your liability is 1 point for your initial trade, worst case you'd lose half a point if it goes against you. However, as I've seen recently this can happen several times in a match so your wins could be very good.
You'd not need a very high strike rate either as your max loss per match is 0.5 points but even those games where you only get 1 match of 1.2 are going to get that back, and once you get 3 or 4 matches you're laughing.
Thoughts?
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@brian-doe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Hi all, wondering if anyone could tip a T20 strategy to use? My brain is a bit scrambled trying to research something relatively consistent to give a go. Thanks.
The games full of swings so don't be a favourite backer. Back value and lay unders. Even if your selections don't win the chances are they will still move in your favour at some point to exit.
Take note of the runs line before the match as well as the match odds. Theoretically if England's line is 175 and odds are 1.8, while their odds will move around, if they're still on track for 175 then their odds should be about that 1.8. Use it as a guide.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@brian-doe That's a tremendous question but I think everyone here would agree there isn't a one fits all strategy for T20s as they're so volatile. Classic example yesterday with England who put up an above par 199 and were 1.33 in the break, which most punters would have said they'd defend easily. Yet 200 runs for 0 wickets later Pakistan walk off victorious.
I think you have to treat each match as a separate event, although I do think there's something in a lay 1.1 or lower strategy when teams are more evenly matched than the market suggests. @Nathan-Bennett is the expert on this one! I'm still figuring it out.
yep, as Matt says, its really tough to have a strategy in T20 as its so volatile. I must admit i tend to go on gut feel, and reputations of batters/bowlers - for example Rashis often comes in first change after 6 overs, so i just dip in and out 4 times before and after he bowls. Aside from that i just look for obvious chances such as PAK the other night 150'0 chasing 200 and just trim a couple of points from that position. T20 is tough to have a strategy, however, i am very interested in us all getting our combined brains together to formulate a strategy for the T20 World Cup
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In an 8 over race, surely the last people you want coming in at 3 are Kohli and Smith... let the openers knock 4s for 4 overs then send in the sloggers!
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@brian-doe That's a tremendous question but I think everyone here would agree there isn't a one fits all strategy for T20s as they're so volatile. Classic example yesterday with England who put up an above par 199 and were 1.33 in the break, which most punters would have said they'd defend easily. Yet 200 runs for 0 wickets later Pakistan walk off victorious.
I think you have to treat each match as a separate event, although I do think there's something in a lay 1.1 or lower strategy when teams are more evenly matched than the market suggests. @Nathan-Bennett is the expert on this one! I'm still figuring it out.
