BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@jonathan-busch said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
I've been pondering about outrights as well.
The way I'm looking at it there are 4 semi-final spots up for grabs...3 of these are most likely going to be Aus, Eng and India which leave one spot open for a good move.
I'm looking at that spot being filled from SA, Pak or NZ (in that order) and they've got some juicy odds. Out of those teams SA will probably be best suited to Aus conditions and are probably under-rated (even though Bavuma is a liability).
So I may go in on SA
And wait to see if Aus get in trouble and get on them at higher odds
Pretorius ruled out for SA with a broken thumb.
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India v SA toss in around 10 mins.
Despite Bang W being in to 1.04 in the first innings, i will not be getting involved as they are already over 120 runs with an over left and there's no evidence that Malaysia can bat - so learning from previous mistakes just assuming the lay was value and hopefully avoiding a loss.
Of course had you entered a lay pre match you'd have been able to green up but i am hoping this is a good bit of match reading!
EDIT: Its raining again in India...
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At this point I'm planning to get up early for the cricket and watch. Gonna be interesting but if you want to be a trader it has to be done.
I wasn't up early for the Pak W game earlier unfortunately as that would have been beautiful given the pre match 1.05 favs lost.
Keeping an eye on Ban W as I agree with @Nathan-Bennett that Malaysia seem to be really bad. Might be some opportunities to back Bang at some point although they're still 1.2ish now. Need more than that for a back.
As far as i can tell, Malaysia will not be scoring more than 80-90 runs maximum.
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@stuart-wallace I've made 2 bots for the cricket and tested them yesterday but they didn't work. I think the issue is figuring out how to get them to execute numerous times despite the result. I see the option "repeat on success" which I had in at 100. I think I need to do "execute: 100" so will try again.
I'll share my files with you and you can mess around with them. As I was off sick yesterday I also made some football and horse racing ones so I'll share those as well. I'll make a Fairbot thread as I'm sure there are more experienced members that can help
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gees sorry lads all happened quickly like first ball ha
1.06 favs BANG W chose to bat first auto lay there pre game forgot to green up before went in play
just something i do
would of re lay in play less risk and wicket first ball ha
bonus 75% stake back on 1.18 no messing around pretty sure malaysia are bad hathis game final score be 75-74 ha
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rain IND SA hate that
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@nathan-bennett another excellent 1.1 lay there. I wonder if there's some value in removing liability at 1.2 then seeing if you can get 1.3 or 1.4 all the way up?
I am going to download Fairbot and see if i can get an Automation Bot working before the WC starts. Feel like i need something to be working for me behind the scenes whilst i am sleeping/working.
So, going to download it tonight and give me 2 weeks to see if i can get a bot working for the 1.1, hopefully with variable exit points other than the stop-loss. Try to utilise @Nathan-Bennett 's liability removal idea too. Something to build on and maybe test for the prelim friendly games.
No pressure. ! -
No idea if Thailand W can bat but PAK 1.05 looks loose
Small lay of PAK
See what THAI batters do first few overs PPI’ll take stake back @1.1’s if happens and then monitor this one
1.4’s be a nice little fill up if happensThat was easy 3 ticks market eased change of INNS
Free rolling
This is awesomE BANKED SOME 1.20Banked some more 1.4 boom !!! reckon green up at evens if happens
GREENED UP HOW GOOD peanut tie aswell
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Wow
IND SA
ODI series ?
Laying batting team after toss pre game 4-5 ticks
Usual stuff -
Time zones closely haha
Nz woman Geezuz 3’s on SP every game
Free money if involved -
@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Whats the general feel about the 1.1 ?
do you think its a goer for the World Cup ?I definitely think a lay low strategy is workable but perhaps putting a figure on it isn't quite right.
The womens game earlier didn't hit 1.1 until the Windies were on the verge of victory (although it ended a draw). That one never bounced out. However the NZ side of the market went from 1.25 to around 1.8 or higher 3 times during the second innings as they kept taking wickets in pairs before giving away lots of runs.
I think a combination of laying at low odds, not creating high liabilities and actually reading the match is how to trade T20s. Plus, as @Nathan-Bennett does, removing liability and banking profit in stages.
There's another womens game tomorrow but it's a dead rubber now.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@nathan-bennett another excellent 1.1 lay there. I wonder if there's some value in removing liability at 1.2 then seeing if you can get 1.3 or 1.4 all the way up?
I have wondered this too. Is there any data that we could get from BF that might help us?
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@matt-ayles Whats the general feel about the 1.1 ?
do you think its a goer for the World Cup ? -
so fed up with work getting in the way of my trading, maybe see if i can get November off too - i can feel there's a big increase in Covid round my way !!
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Bloody tied match!!
Where's Nathans peanut !?
There were so many big swings in that match. Windies were 1.03 needing 1 run off 1 ball but ended up losing a wicket instead.
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Bloody tied match!!
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
This Windies v NZ tour has been so low scoring. May well be another chance to lay NZ and continue their gift giving series.
And that they are.
For transparency for those watching, I didn't want to wait for 1.1 as didn't feel it would get there until very late so i laid NZ at 1.2, i then removed half liability at 1.4, the other half and 1.6 and then locked in and even profit spread at 1.8
As i type this the Windies have lost 2 wickets in 2 balls so NZ have crashed back into 1.25. Windies need 60 off 64 balls which is very achievable but are now 4 down... McClean might need to stick around for a bit but there's a fair chance this drifts again.
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This Windies v NZ tour has been so low scoring. May well be another chance to lay NZ and continue their gift giving series.
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Wow two drop catches in final over haha WI up to muppets
