BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@matt-ayles Yeah, makes perfect sense. Too much risk, which can’t be hedged if it starts going wrong.
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Another thought i had on this is, what if the odds are 1.12, then a 6 is hit dropping it to 1.07, but you would still be matched at 1.1 - your exit is still 1.2 whereas mine is a far more attractive 1.14.
There may be some legs in a set and forget style but right now i want to give it my full attention as its still in its infancy.
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@brian-doe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Forgive my ignorance but have you ever queued up a 1.1 lay and say 1.2 back for if you’re not able to watch an entire game?
If goes as predicted, they’ll match, if not the prices go higher and nothing lost.
Good question. However, no. My current thoughts on the strategy have a stop loss at 1.05 if the game only goes one way. This is a brand new idea though which i only came up with last week but i don't currently want to do a "set and forget".
Also, what would you do if the 1.2 got matched first?
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@matt-ayles Forgive my ignorance but have you ever queued up a 1.1 lay and say 1.2 back for if you’re not able to watch an entire game?
If goes as predicted, they’ll match, if not the prices go higher and nothing lost.
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Bangladesh bat first and start around the 1.4 mark. Would need a sizeable opening partnership or a very high run rate to push it to 1.1 in the first innings but certainly not impossible. Worth keeping an eye.
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@stuart-wallace I'm hoping once i have my first very profitable month, say 1k or so, I'll invest in a decent office setup.
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace might be sick this whole month too
Football World Cup also during most of December ! Going to be one hell of a sporting trading month. With Test matches typically starting during the night from Oz and World Cup games being mostly at 13.00, 16.00 and 19.00 UK time, i am going to be a busy boy ! Like @Matt-Ayles , i will be using a white-board to have a schedule, and get myself set up with multiple screens and a nice office area.
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@matt-ayles Great idea. Maybe we could all chip in and share our research so we’re all singing from the same hymn sheet.
Bang averaging 157 from last three matches for 5ish wickets.
UAE have won just one in their last eight (all formats) and Bang are a clear step up in quality of opposition.
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@brian-doe said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Going to keep an eye out for potential 1.1 chances later.
Two T20s starting at 3; UAE v Bang and Bar v Guy in the CPL
I'll be researching the UAE game later.
Also going to be putting a calendar together for the world cup, match times, where I'll be etc, make sure I'm available to trade as i don't have a month off work lol.
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Going to keep an eye out for potential 1.1 chances later.
Two T20s starting at 3; UAE v Bang and Bar v Guy in the CPL
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@jonathan-busch re cap
Hardly remember this match now ha would need to consider stage of match this was
But yeah if I see a stage where think 1.3 is wrong very happy to go against it -
@stuart-wallace might be sick this whole month too
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Sorry just to clarify...
I meant a 1.3 lay, not back.
I've learnt that lesson the hard way
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Either way, if the match just goes south and your loss is £25 you'd only need to hit between 33% - 38% strike rate to make long term profit.
Plus, as we discovered yesterday, once the first green is matched, you can re-lay at 1.1 or lower and double or treble your money etc, making that required strike rate even lower. And you never go back into red once that first green is matched.
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@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Just thinking out loud here and trying to work out numbers....
If you lay 500 at 1.1 , your liability would be 50
if you exit at 1.05 then your loss is 25
if you Back at 1.2 and it gets taken, then what would your approx. profit be?.Am i right with my Maffs ??!!
The other part of this to consider is whether you back at 1.2 for 500 which gives you £50 (before commission) on the current market favourite and scratches the underdog... or you back for say £460 at 1.2 which gives you £42/£40 on each side of the market. (Again, pre 2%).
Think that maths is right although I've rushed it lol.
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@matt-ayles
I must admit, i find software so much easier - i use BetAngel Trader, which is not a lot per month. -
@stuart-wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles Wont be able to make Tuesday or Wednesday, coz of work, although might be able to get to 2nd innings of ENG v PAK - want to explore the 1.1 lay more.
Btw , are you getting your historic data purely from Betfair?
I know its a long way away but i am intending to take the whole of December off work, and i just noticed that, from 28th November and all December there are 8 Test matches being played ! Plus there is a plethora of BBL games on too. What fun !
What software do you use ? BetAngel?
If you mean where do i see the odds ranges and how many times it goes 1.1 - 1.2 etc then yes I get it from betfair but I have been logging in towards the end of matches to view the graphs live... i don't have access to the data once the site closes the market. Just a bit of hard graft at this stage.
I also currently do not use software... it's certainly something i want to do but until i get a decent PC setup with dual screens etc i just trade with my laptop or sometimes phone on the Betfair website.
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@brian-doe thanks Brian
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@stuart-wallace 44 quid give or take on 2% commission
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Just thinking out loud here and trying to work out numbers....
If you lay 500 at 1.1 , your liability would be 50
if you exit at 1.05 then your loss is 25
if you Back at 1.2 and it gets taken, then what would your approx. profit be?.Am i right with my Maffs ??!!
