BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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I see BAN vs SRL starts on Friday. Stats at the venue suggest very few draws (2nd test venue seems to be draw central though). A bit of conflicting weather on days 3-4 but hopefully get some draw lays in below 5.0 early on Day 1. Don't tend to get huge stoppages due to rain in the sub continent so hopefully plenty of time for a result, fingers crossed.
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@Tony-Hastie @Stuart-Wallace , totally agree with your assessment. For me, its way more profitable than scalping on other sports, but the time aspect vs 1 error setting you back miles is just not for me.
I took a reset over New year and decided to trade nothing but only monitor 'obvious trades' I would of made vs I need to trade on every game every day. Yes I missed a few great opportunities in tests (and there's not huge numbers of them over the next 6-9 months) but It stopped the urge of 'there's a match today, need to slowly build my bank again.' Also I would then go 'if I miss a game today, that's a missed opportunity' so I do something silly next time to 'make up' for it, and it costs me more.
So in short, scalping is definitely not for me, but i have no doubt there is money to be made given how predictable cricket markets are most of the time. The problem I find, its so dependent on the next ball. If the ball after a wicket is a dot, the price continues to move fast, if there's any score, it goes the opposite way.
Im sticking to tried an tested - LTD in tests, lay teams chasing crazy totals after a good start. Laying 1.1 or under in matches with a long way to go, looking for a rise to 1.2 area, @Nathan-Bennett seems to have great success with that.
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@Stuart-Wallace Yeah, for the most part it worked. Its really easy to spot the wicket or boundary when looking at the odds and if youre just taking a tick or 3 youre never in the trade for long. What I struggled with was the mindset of "Ok, this trade hasnt gone quite right, Ill just hang in there a bit longer" instead of getting out quickly for a loss if necessary(the odds do do some bizarre things sometimes!). And boredom!
I practiced with small stakes almost daily for about 2 months, when I finally decided that I lacked the discipline and the time to be making a good go of it. I found myself doing this when I should have been doing other things...
And yeah, did watch that video....remember that part about needing to be focused and in a quiet room with no distractions. Thats me out, maybe the kids were the problem
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@Tony-Hastie Thanks Tony, yep i use Fairbot now (used to use BA, but found Fairbot easier (and cheaper) to use for BOTs - which is how i'm intending to use this during IPL - simple BOT just Laying with an offset and SL combined).
Out of interest, how long did you use it for ? and was it successful? And did it 'work' for most of the trades?Martin did a vid on Cricket Scalping here :
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@Stuart-Wallace yep, odds(on BA ladder in my case) move quicker than any screen. I can tell a wicket or a boundary before its taken(or hit!) on screen.
It sounds simple how you say it....and its pretty much exactly what you are doing but I stopped doing it because I became impatient and started doing silly things. Basically, I get bored easily and decided that I dont have the discipline to be successful at it long term...
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SCALPING.....
maybe someone confirm my understanding of scalping in 20 over game....
Mainly it is to wait for the price to reach its high (or low) immediately after a wicket,six or four then back or lay looking to exit before the next ball is bowled after price has settled down and try to get a 2+ tick profit. Rinse and repeat for next major event.
Is this how everyone else sees it?
One problem i see is the time delay, so prob best way to monitor is via BF -
IPL starts this Friday.
CSK v RCB.
I will be trialling my Toss strategy, otherwise staying clear of the bedlam -
@Fraser-cord Yes, i was thinking the same way and steered my trading towards AFG v IRE instead. Actually made a good green too. Basically stayed clear of first 6 overs concerned about IRE openers (batting and bowling) and then just piled on AFG once they'd gone through the 145 mark - it worked well.
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Any thoughts on PSL final today?
Multan v Islamabad.Ive followed a bit of the PSL without putting much money on. Hasnt really followed any of the usual 20/20 trends in the matches ive seen.
Currently watching AFG vs IRE. If yesterday is anything to go by, could be some good chances.
In Sharjah, if the 1st innings score is above 145, team batting 1st has won 16/19. If its under, team batting 1st has lost almost everytime.
So given how IRE started yesterday then folded, watching this closely.
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Any thoughts on PSL final today?
Multan v Islamabad. -
@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andrew-page Similarly, i am trialling a strategy that i have been trying to implement for some time now....
Works on using a Bot to manipulate the prices at the correct time...Have a LaytoBack bot that kicks in on the away team at 31 mins prior to start (ie 1 minute before Toss) that has an offset of 8 ticks, and a stop loss of 4 ticks. The idea being that there is always a swing caused by toss - half the time it will come on your side, and you collect the 8 ticks, and 50 per cent of the time you exit via the SL and lose 4 ticks - however, over the 2 games (avearge) you come out with a 4 tick net gain.
The idea of it being on the away team, is that the swing on the away team is going to be greater should they lose the toss.
Had mixed results so far, and the params need to be fettled - however, i am convinced there is a strategy there, as i see the odds change in every game based on the Toss.
Needs strong liquidity and close teams.As i said, i am trialling this , but any input is highly valued. Any way of making a regular profit on the IPL games before the game starts is a real possibility.
If you look at todays game, it 'worked', however.... Peshawar won the toss !!!!
am no cricket expert i have to rely on knowledge of my indian buddy
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@andrew-page Similarly, i am trialling a strategy that i have been trying to implement for some time now....
Works on using a Bot to manipulate the prices at the correct time...Have a LaytoBack bot that kicks in on the away team at 31 mins prior to start (ie 1 minute before Toss) that has an offset of 8 ticks, and a stop loss of 4 ticks. The idea being that there is always a swing caused by toss - half the time it will come on your side, and you collect the 8 ticks, and 50 per cent of the time you exit via the SL and lose 4 ticks - however, over the 2 games (avearge) you come out with a 4 tick net gain.
The idea of it being on the away team, is that the swing on the away team is going to be greater should they lose the toss.
Had mixed results so far, and the params need to be fettled - however, i am convinced there is a strategy there, as i see the odds change in every game based on the Toss.
Needs strong liquidity and close teams.As i said, i am trialling this , but any input is highly valued. Any way of making a regular profit on the IPL games before the game starts is a real possibility.
Coin flip always going to be 50/50 even if it goes against 10 times consecutive odds never change
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@andrew-page Similarly, i am trialling a strategy that i have been trying to implement for some time now....
Works on using a Bot to manipulate the prices at the correct time...Have a LaytoBack bot that kicks in on the away team at 31 mins prior to start (ie 1 minute before Toss) that has an offset of 8 ticks, and a stop loss of 4 ticks. The idea being that there is always a swing caused by toss - half the time it will come on your side, and you collect the 8 ticks, and 50 per cent of the time you exit via the SL and lose 4 ticks - however, over the 2 games (avearge) you come out with a 4 tick net gain.
The idea of it being on the away team, is that the swing on the away team is going to be greater should they lose the toss.
Had mixed results so far, and the params need to be fettled - however, i am convinced there is a strategy there, as i see the odds change in every game based on the Toss.
Needs strong liquidity and close teams.As i said, i am trialling this , but any input is highly valued. Any way of making a regular profit on the IPL games before the game starts is a real possibility.
If you look at todays game, it 'worked', however.... Peshawar won the toss !!!!
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AUS NZ
No live trades at mo
But come on NZ
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Ok laying some NZ 1.4 -
@Nathan-Bennett I considered an NZ lay under 3.0 but a little nervous the pitch is flattening. Also if NZ get a 250+ lead, I would be concerned on OZ chasing it, their batting has been poor.
Excellent Test but glad I havn't gone in again yet, not sure where this match is going. Will see how things start tomorrow then assess.
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RE ENTRY
NZ AUS
Laying NZ 3.15 till stumps -
IND ENG
IND Lay 1.04 see if can get double my money -
NZ AUS
My AUS 1.14 Lay looking good at lunch with aus 8 down
Taken stake out 1.23
See what NZ can do from here
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Taken some 1.42 this is great
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Eye on nz lay under 3 if happens
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Didnt lay NZ instead have no greened up for now 1.8 AUS -
I had my LTD queued at 4.9 for NZ vs AUS, missed it by a couple of ticks. Managed to get some green from earlier entries but gutted to miss the big one. Yet again, it was a given this wasn't going 5 days.
These 60-0 starts just not happening at the moment in tests, but as long as the wickets keep tumbling we are all happy.
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@Nathan-Bennett I saw the draw price around 6.2 when I headed for bed, 34 for none. Nearly layed the draw then....but being a NZer I was quite reluctant to see that price go up because of kiwi wickets! Hard for me to be impartial vs Auz...or anyone for that matter
