BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Utilising the famous "what has to happen" method of trading, with NZ 2 or 3 down it was feasible to see a partnership develope at some point... however now 7 down for no runs with the tail fully exposed I can't see it... the England of old were terrible at seeing off the tail but we've had less than 30 overs and the balls still swinging...
Yes England are very short seeing as it's so early but personally I don't feel confident that their price will drift until we come to bat and Boult removes our openers for similar.
Thoughts?
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LAYING some 1.27
1.5's be huge -
Draw layers dream this! Already locked in and its still session 1!
Agree that any team odds on in Day 1 (let alone session 1!) is madness... although I don't think now is the right moment to lay, the balls still swinging. -
was about to type what price ENG if NZ scramble 140 ish
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just entered a W.I LAY @1.23
would love 1.4's close to end INNS
could be asking a lot -
@tom-david-1 love these lay types .., fraction too soon for me but eye on the ball doing less etc etc
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5 day game, yadda yadda yadda, going to have a lay of England at 1.55 and do a rain dance
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what's happening to my world champs ha
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Its so much easier when you pick your best players
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been busy
missed rock bottom 2.4's think but 2.9 lay is good -
@dan-mackinnon 2/2
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Good start 1/1
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NZ bat, and Boult does play.
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Looks like a batting day/pitch... so if England bat first the conditions will not be any easier for our fragile top order. However looks an important toss to win as no cloud cover etc could make bowling tricky.
Middlesex have hit some good numbers here recently too so I think win the toss and bat is the way.
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@richard-futter very interesting. So it seems big scores and unpredictable weather is impacting the draw price. From your experience what would you expect it to be? Or is c.2.7 about right?
Like you say, hopefully theyāll be a few early wickets and that will push it back out
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Andrew McDonald will miss the game which was supposed to be his first since being appointed full-time head coach of the Australian cricket team.
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@dan-mackinnon very rare for a team to win the toss and bowl, unless very overcast and/or green conditions. So, will likely need NZ to win toss to get Jimmy bowling first.
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LTD price seems to have stabilised at 2.76.
Anybody here planning to do Run lines ? might be interesting to do for first 10 overs - cant see Jimmy and Broady giving many runs away tbh.
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@dan-mackinnon The weather has been pretty unpredictable in recent days, with some T20 Blast games unexpectedly abandoned after sudden downpours,, so perhaps punters feel something similar could happen at Lord's, but as you say it would be a surprise if any day's play was totally washed out.
Also, two of the last three Tests here have finished in stalemates - including last year's match-up between the same two teams. Also big scores have been the order of the day in the County Championship so far this season, so that could be a major factor too.
Countering that, both sides have big questions to answer about their batting. The retirements of Ross Taylor and BJ Watling have had a big impact on the Kiwis, while Lees, Crawley and Pope look extremely vulnerable at the top of the England order.
If there's any early movement the draw price of around 2.7 will look very silly indeed and if the weather stays fine for day one - as looks likely - I can't see it falling much below 2.5 in the opening exchanges. That may be a good price to lay, and could give a chance of getting some early green on the board.
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@stuart-wallace Met Office has changed again. There's now no rain but cloudy on Sunday, possible rain in the morning (pre-7am). Do you think it's the weather that is pushing the draw price down? Surely it would take a full day lost to rain for the likelihood of a draw to come in?
If the potential for rain isn't until Day 4 then hopefully enough action would have happened to push that draw price back out.
Although both teams have a "reduced" bowling attack there is still quality in there and I think either side could take 20 wickets. I don't reckon much of either opening batsmen or 8-11 so it'll be the 4-7 batsmen that might decide it?
On Flashscore it says "The average first innings score of the match across the last ten Lord's Tests is 271, or 312 for the four teams that won batting first". It'll be good if England win the toss, elect to bowl and Jimmy and Broad get stuck in during the first session and bowl them out Day 1 for 250. Simple really isn't it?