BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
IND SRI
1.10 lay is always tempting however i suspect with this outfield the market drift on wickets may not be that great
I’m thinking around the 40-45th over assess for a layAgree with this, India going nuts, almost at 150 after just 19 overs. Could be a huge score, the lay at that stage might be 1.05 or less!
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IND SRI
1.10 lay is always tempting however i suspect with this outfield the market drift on wickets may not be that great
I’m thinking around the 40-45th over assess for a lay -
Internet slow
But
On
IND 345+ -
NZ PAK
BACK NZ 2.18
WANT 1.6-1.7NZ 288+ small
Suspect getting both wrong here
So be it -
Just been doing some analysis on my trading losses. I've found 65% have occurred when I've backed something rather than lay. In my case backing overs instead of laying runs. Pretty happy to see this as I prefer laying as my main play so I'll make an adjustment. Anyone else found similar in their analysis? Even on football overs/unders.
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Average ODI score at Kirachi is 244, no bias batting or bowling first, and highest ever chase was 310.
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Really odd review here by Hobart... no chance this is hitting wickets so can't be lbw, and wasn't caught etc so not sure why they've reviewed, total waste.
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@matt-ayles partnerships eye on myself as well first INNS
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
PAK NZ ODI
finger will be on trigger lay batting side after toss pre gameThe lay low strategy works on ODIs too, it's just slower in the movements.
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PAK NZ ODI
finger will be on trigger lay batting side after toss pre game -
Catching up on the chat
Always learning
Look back to look forward
Recent
NZ PAK
only regret was when I identified a green light lay didn’t re mortgage and lay the crap out of the draw
Became obvious toward end NZ second INNS they were about to declare when Mitchell came out to back
First ball reverse sweep HELLO !!!!
Draw was around 1.44
5 balls later declaration Draw 1.90
This time of the game and lay got me roughly 80% of my winnings
Something to think about at times considering effort put in daily
Early days aim to build towards a possible green light situation before determining final trades and position want to take on the outcomeAnd with this lay there was very minimal risk maybe 5-10c if no declaration and market shifted against the lay
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@matt-ayles I agree with you on laying low after the first innings. I am new on this platform and also new to cricket trading. I have been using this strategy on BBL and its working fine for me.
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 I've considered laying both sides at 1.1, and this certainly would have landed on occasion. However what i don't know is whether that would land enough to be profitable long term. Would need researching.
IPL isn't far away.
25th March to 28th May !! - got 2 more teams i believe this season .
Interesting concept (1.1 lay on both sides).
1.1 does come in sometimes, when the market thinks a team can't lose after the first innings but they do... although I'm not confident about it as a viable strategy, i think laying low after the first innings is the way forward.
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@matt-ayles I really wanted to try and track the lowest odds of both teams in play over the bbl.
But I couldn't be available to odds watch every game!
I did play about a bit in getting past data off Betfair but didn't get far enough to actually work out how to open it in clear readable format.
Would be very interesting and possibly give a clear odds range that a pre match lay might profitable at
If time allows at some point I'd be tempted to dig into it further
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@stuart-wallace-0 I've considered laying both sides at 1.1, and this certainly would have landed on occasion. However what i don't know is whether that would land enough to be profitable long term. Would need researching.
IPL isn't far away.
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@stuart-wallace-0 you should check out this thread
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3923/fairbot-automation-discussion
There has already been a go at automating the 1:1 i believe (although i dont really understand Cricket yet to have had a look hence starting to follow this thread)
There are a few horse racing ones there already and people have been happy to help when ive been trying to learn automation
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Yep, lots learnt this first month and a half.
Not been easy with the tests being through the night.
I've made losses overall so far on t20s swing trading. Keep hitting low odd lays but not getting a swing back up. Plenty of overs left too but just ok the wrong games.
Think I need to try and be a bit more confident following my gut earlier in games at more around 1.4 ish lays as I've followed plenty and been 'calling' them right.
Eng in NZ will be interesting. Often good batting wickets but sure we will see some results with the current approach
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@stuart-wallace-0 yeah my frustration comes as i had green on the draws but dropped it down to zero on low draw lays hoping for big big profit.
Anyway, another win in the BBL today helps.
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Those 2 test draws were incredibly frustrating for me and i need to start locking in i guess.
Both of them traded nicely, and had 10 points potentially across the 2 results, but because I flipped the green from the draw to the result thinking it would increase profit, i ended up with 2 scratches.
Greed i guess.
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Backing overs here on thunder. Got another waiting at 148. I'll start laying from 180.
Grim start. Both matched so I'll start laying 165
