BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace-0 there will be wickets some point
Could then maybe back to lay the draw for 20-30 ticks on wickets
NZ do have plenty of batting talent
Or
If NZ get stupid low like odds on lay them for a swing -
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Got a problem boys ... hope you might be able to able to give me some ideas.
Forgive my ramble....
Got a large red currently on PAK v NZ cos of LTD at 4.5.
Initially thought, NZ would lose wickets and LTD would start going out - but obviously this hasnt happened.
I'm now thinking, well, if NZ can bat for all tomorrow (and get a lead) and maybe first 2 sessions of day 4 then they could declare some 250 ahead with PAK having to bat 4 sessions to survive - surely this would cause the LTD to drift somewhat ? - what do you think?
What would you do?
I think I would forget your initial lay and do a small back of the draw with a view to trade out and get some green back (say half odds). If the back goes against you atleast your LTD looks better and you can make a call if you take a smaller red. If it continues to shorten I'd look to get a low lay on the draw to average out your LTD odds if you feel there's still a chance of a result.
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@matt-ayles totally
I also know I got into this trade when it wasn't as strong as the other test ltd's I've done so lesson learned hopefully. Was always a chance the pitch might not have enough in it early enough. Should have waited!
Maybe there will be a lower odds opportunity later but if not another test isn't far away!
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@gavin-rumsey what i started doing was thinking if i accept a loss of £10 (compared with the full liability), how likely is it i can find an opportunity to make £10 later in the test...? Still ends up as scratch but its kind of like starting a whole new trading session.
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@matt-ayles thanks
I'm fairly good at not chasing losses and when things go wrong I write it off pretty quickly in my mind.
Never got past small stakes and losing though! Football this was.
Swing trading T20 has been ok but not green on it yet. Test matches much better.
This NZ/Pak test is first decision really in terms of take red of about 40% liability or hang in for a couple of days....
Thinking maybe take the red. Reassess later to see if there is a better opportunity. (protect some of the bank is better I guess...)
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@gavin-rumsey accepting losses is an extremely hard part of trading but crucial if you're to succeed long term... you can ask the instructors here, i uses to overstake, chase losses etc. Got me nowhere. Been here about 18 months and was in loss after the first 12.
However I've been profitable the last 5 or 6. Not massive, not where i want to be, but green. It took alot of learning though.
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I'm the same with NZ/Pak.
It's not great and I was contemplating taking the red as is. It is only 2 days in and there is a chance the pitch might deteriorate day 4/5. Games in Asia can move quickly when the pitch goes.
Currently I'm thinking of waiting to see if NZ can build a lead and pressure the 2nd innings as @stuart-wallace-0 you mention.
Not laying Pakistan feels like an oversight as it would have been a good hedge against what has currently played out.
Not got into aus/sa as felt the weather might be an issue. If they get overs in Tomo I might ltd at a higher liability as with scoreboard pressure I'd expect sa to crumble day 4
Hope things work out for everyone
Or... I need to learn to remove the bigger risk and take the red...
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@stuart-wallace-0 similar position to me, albeit 3.5 entry. Not my best move really, should have laid Pakistan start of the NZ innings.
Unfortunately I'm also in the red in Aus and laid them and all they've done is come in.
Tricky choices but what i have done before is cash out the loss and then try and trade it back to scratch.
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LAY SA @6 .. assess trade if SA go lower in the 4's
Green up SA 12’s
Now laying it all AUS 1.15 (risky) but farrrrr can’t back 1.15
See if can get 10-15 ticksGreat start day 1
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Any thoughts on aus/sa?
With a day looking like rain and the pitch said to be a better batting track I'm thinking of waiting till I wake up Tomo before making any play on ltd.
Saying that. There is some green there and the bowling line ups are both so strong...
If anyone is over there or this side and up to the early hours - good luck
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@stuart-wallace-0
Weather?
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Now it's Xmas in the UK too, so a very merry xmas one and all!
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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Everyone getting there Xmas stocking filled in BANG v IND
Absolutely. Very productive lay at the start of the chase!
Presume NZ/Aus are past midnight so Merry Xmas all those out that way.
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Everyone getting there Xmas stocking filled in BANG v IND
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@andy said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Anyone trading well v Otago? I'll be looking at overs in the run market. I think Wellington should be north of 170 today.
Scratched out
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Anyone trading well v Otago? I'll be looking at overs in the run market. I think Wellington should be north of 170 today.
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey you'll find that India odds wont move that much in most games regardless.
A resolute huge backing all the time?
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
big lay 1.09. looking for 1.19 exit.
Bottled out at 1.15 - worried about the India effect/bias.
Funnily enough I did the same a while ago at 1.14.
Odds weren't shifting much at all and I thought there'd be a chance of a tail end partnership staying in for enough to hold the odds low.
Added more to my ltd draw earlier at high odds and letting it ride. High liability but seeing India struggle to really take hold of an innings gave me confidence Bang won't do enough to get runs on the board for a draw to be an option
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two lays happy to do for double the odds
LAY SCORCHERS 1.1 want 1.22
will re lay 1.05 want 1.10 if happens -
LAYING IND 1.29 after that Pujara wicket and lunch 6 overs away ish
