BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Karl-Pick I'm not totally convinced Stokes will bat first if he wins the toss. He loves to do the unexpected and put the opposition in, and the Aussie openers look like wickets waiting to happen. Warner is Broad's bunny while Kawaja has a woeful record in England.
In the last Test here England reduced a top notch India batting line-up to 98-5 and if Australia bat first I will definitely be having a back of England to do early damage. That will be a short term trade though, as I'm not convinced that Robinson, Anderson and Stokes are entirely match fit, while the absence of Jack Leach means there's no Test class spinner to tie up an end if the Aussies do get into their stride.
In the longer term - and I'm in serious danger of turning into a stuck record (youngsters: ask your parents, or grandparents) - it'll be lay lay lay the draw. There has not been a draw here since 2012, when an incredible three whole days were lost to rain. That's not going to happen this time, with Sunday the only day that looks seriously under threat - although even then, it's likely to be a case of sunshine and occasional showers. That in itself gives some great trading opportunities.
With the pace of England's batting and the strength of the bowling units, only rain can prevent all five Tests producing positive results. I'm very surprised to see Australia even money favourites to win the series. They haven't won a series here in over 20 years and if I were to have a straightforward bet I'd be backing England to win the series 3-2 or 4-1.
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@Bruce-Lum think the toss in all games will be massive!! Both teams I think will Bat and go for a big 1st innings hoping the wickets Stokes has asked for get inconsistent bounce after days of quickies pounding them!
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@Jonathan-West i use xc Weather, mainly because i sail, and XCW gives me wind speeds.
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@Bruce-Lum instead of a reverse sweep, i am doing a reverse Mcgrath......5-0 to ENG.
Mcgrath and Jim Maxwell, the 2 biggest pundit plonkers on the planet.
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@Bruce-Lum I'd say you're not too far off with that. I can't see England's bowling attack consistently skittling Oz. It' may be a touch closer with favourable swing conditions and home advantage but I expect Oz to come out on top.
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@Martin Does anybody have a view on the Ashes series result?
I am thinking 4-0 or 3-1 Australia.
Full disclosure, I am Australian. -
@stuart-wallace-0 I'm tempted to get on the draw price (currently 4.6) but my weather forecast app is holding me back. What weather forecast website do you use? I use the met office which I find pretty reliable and it's showing improved weather for Sunday
With this in mind, and the media hype ramping up bazball expectation and therefore punter excitement the closer tomorrow morning gets , I'm wary that this price will drift. Or you looking to get out before the start? I guess I could see a likely scenario of Smith & Labuschagne getting in for a long stint on the first day which would shorten the price. But that's if they bat first.
Any reassurance on your weather prediction would be welcome and/or pointers that I may have missed or miss read.
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@Nathan-Bennett Thank you, just removed most of my liability.
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@Nathan-Bennett easy money on the draw lay!
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Wow, Sunday is looking like a cracking day !.....
Draw now at 4.4 - have entered at that as my first tranche.
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@stuart-wallace-0 BOOM ! i held on for the market to mini steam in a lil via small partnership #bonus
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@Nathan-Bennett Yep, i got in just in time at 3.45 this morning.
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BANG AFGHAN
Here we go draw dips below 3 and two poles
May never see it that low again -
BANG AFGHAN
Couple early poles
Draw market a lot could hinge on afghan avoiding follow on
I'm not expecting much rain (hunch from sites browsed - no solid intel)I'm hoping AFGHAN 20-0 type start , 2nd and fourth INNS markets tend to move faster . then look to target and jump on draw lay wagon
like others have mentioned
any team holding onto a draw be tough in this heat -
@stuart-wallace-0 Slowest first-class century ever! Some run chase though in fairness
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@David-Milligan Basically because he fits the Bazball mould of how ENG want to play.
ENG believe a quickfire 40 has a bigger value in their new model than someone who dawdles to 50 (check out Sibleys 100 today off about a million balls).He may well come under pressure should he continue with low scores in first 2 tests though.
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@stuart-wallace-0 how on earth does Crawley still get a game
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England XI: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Moeen Ali, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Ollie Robinson, 11 James Anderson.
