BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@Stuart-Wallace said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
NZ v SA 2nd test tonight at Hamilton. Weather is looking fine for all 5 days (if it gets that far)
Stats: there has been 2 draws out of last 10 tests (although because of the weakness of the SA team this is likely to be irrelevant) - however the interesting stat to me is that all of the last 10 tests at Hamilton has seen the side winning the toss elect to field, my assumption being is that Hamilton, because of its location, usually shows a tinge of green at start?.My thoughts were,before finding out the above, that because SA elected to field in 1st test, that it was almost certain that NZ would bat first regardless, and therefore i was looking to back the draw in from 9 (current) into 6 and then get back on LTD when SA bat. however, not so sure now and will wait til toss has taken place before entering.
Thoughts?I am planning to do something similar providing NZ bat 1st. Wouldnt touch the draw early if SA bat, no idea what they could do. But NZ's record at Seddon park looks good, as does the general 1st innings score of the team batting 1st. Although no tests there in the past few years, 2020 the last i think.
Been a couple of tests already this year with a perceived mismatch between opponents, and when the favs batted 1st and started well, the draw came in quite a lot.
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@Tony-Hastie yep, know the feeling... in the 70's i had trials for Kent schoolboys at Mote Park, Maidstone, and failed miserably - so i hate Mote Park
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@Stuart-Wallace Actually, thinking about it more I think we batted second and were chasing a rather large total...so, yeah, lost that one. Our little school made it to the semis again the next year and got thrashed by the other powerhouse team at the time. Friggin hate Seddon park
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@Tony-Hastie I assume you lost, Tony ?
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Ive been doing some (crude) analysis on Test matches played in 2023, and ...
there were 39 Tests played (including womens) and there were 5 draws in that 39 - and at least 2 of those that were seriously weather-affected (Manchester and Sydney).
Therefore, out of those 39, there would have been 34 LTD's that worked and 2 that you would have likely traded outside LTD. So, if for example you had 100 pounds on LTD then you would have a potential profit of 3400.
I am intending for 2024/25 season to attempt to average a 250 pound profit per test thus giving a profit closer to 10k. This would obviously require a larger Bank to enable to trade where Tests overlap(happens a fair bit).
Also, another thing i have noticed since i have been trading cricket full time so far in 2024 is that i have become more successful at trading white-ball, and obviously is because i am able to watch the games and make quicker decisions.In 2024 there have been a total of 10 tests so far, with no draws. According to the FTP, there is planned to be a total of (surprisingly) 50+ tests in 2024., which sorta goes against the 'Tests are dying' mantra. I notice that a lot of nations are now starting to play international cricket in the traditional northern hemisphere summer - such as BAN,WI,SL.
I also notice the MCC has proposed from 2028 that all Test series has a minimum of 3 Tests per series. The paradox of that is that Graeme Smith is on the ICC panel promoting this, yet he is the major reason for SA currently sending a much weakened test team to NZ because of his huge influence in SA20. -
@Stuart-Wallace I played in the Waikato school boys cricket semi final at Seddon park in 1986 v Hamilton Boys high school, featuring Shane Thompson who at schoolboy level was a super quick, very erratic bowler. It was the first time Id ever worn a helmet! We batted first, they rolled us for about 60 and after all the hype I managed to get myself out to a spin bowler.
Not sure that will help you much
(yes, it will probably be green early)
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NZ v SA 2nd test tonight at Hamilton. Weather is looking fine for all 5 days (if it gets that far)
Stats: there has been 2 draws out of last 10 tests (although because of the weakness of the SA team this is likely to be irrelevant) - however the interesting stat to me is that all of the last 10 tests at Hamilton has seen the side winning the toss elect to field, my assumption being is that Hamilton, because of its location, usually shows a tinge of green at start?.My thoughts were,before finding out the above, that because SA elected to field in 1st test, that it was almost certain that NZ would bat first regardless, and therefore i was looking to back the draw in from 9 (current) into 6 and then get back on LTD when SA bat. however, not so sure now and will wait til toss has taken place before entering.
Thoughts? -
Nice green on SL v AFG today - couldnt see why AFG price was coming in although their RRR was increasing ! All imploded in the end !
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Flipped out of SL lay, now lay on AFG - looks like a total of 350+ which will be way beyond AFG methinks.
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Just logged in
AUS WI
Been and easy trading game
filling up
AND
SRI AFGHAN
SRI LAY 1.08
..,
SRI LAY 1.05 aswell
...
If WI get to 1.2 favs might consider lay for a swing
assuming the rate still 9 ish required -
SL running at 1.16 - AFG have got their new young spin sensation Noor Ahmed to bowl - once he comes on im gonna have a big lay of SL.
iN AT 1.09 -
today weve got AUS V WI IN 20 over game at Hobart then SL V AFG in ODI.
I wonder what Hobart wicket will be like under lights? -
easy money on the DSG v JSK semi final tonight. JSK were high 3's chasing 212 and still in 4's when DuPlessis was out early - just kept topping the lay JSG up.
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Had a lucky green (maybe my luck is turning) this morning on Laying AUS W at 1.11 to get a nice size profit.
3rd ODI is at North Sydney Oval on a day/night - and it showed today that it was tough batting under the lights, especially for first 10 overs. So, will be looking to lay team batting second.
Also, had a nice medium green on the NZ v SA test too.
Starting to recoup some of the red i encountered with the IND v ENG first Test . -
@Richard-Futter Im in South Africa at the moment for a couple of months, and the general dismay about the Test team here is obvious. Hardly any media coverage - most of cricket coverage is around the SA20 (i've got tickets for the final this Saturday) - however, attendances for SA20 games this year are supposedly down by 20 per cent as the novelty has worn off. I went to a game at Newlands last week where there were big swathes of empty seats.
The new SA skipper (who attempted to qualify for England in 2017) is sitting on an 8-fer currently!. -
NZ SA
In a good position personally after Nz runs line saluted for me flipped all that and lay draw 3.55
Greened that easily
Am eyeing a low lay Nz and exit double 1.05-1.10 styles to build some more green
Think Nz declare during first session tmr some point
ā¦.
AUS WI
ODI
WI bowled out for 80 odd
AUS always going to win
I always get annoyed with aus captains choose to bowl first . P**s weak so many ways IMO -
@Stuart-Wallace South Africa are basically fielding a third eleven, so the chances of them ever avoiding defeat look entirely dependent on the weather. Otherwise, if draws get anywhere in the vicinity of 4 to 5 a lay is definitely the order of the day.
Reasonable greens for me so far on all the Test cricket played so far this year, but with the Indian pitches and Bazball the draw has been much less easy to lay at low prices.
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@Martin Yep, caused me a big red in 1st Test that i couldnt recover from, all because i went shopping for a couple of hours. A lot more wary of, should just stick to LTD, however, prices have become huge.
One opportunity i missed was with the NZ v SA Test, where pre toss Draw price was 15, but when NZ batted it dropped to 4s by EOP. So, with second Test, i am expecting the same (SA won the toss and inserted NZ ) , so will look to lump on a Back for the draw at 31 mins before game starts. -
@Nathan-Bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Regardless result have to love the England attitude
Series going to be a ripperYeah in a way England are a bit of a problem, any other team and I probably don't even bother greening up but they do make me weary, just the speed of it means they can turn a game on it's head in one session.
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Regardless result have to love the England attitude
Series going to be a ripper
