BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace-0 i wonder if the issue there was that the clear pre match favourite was batting first? A bit like the Aus W last week. 1.01 pre match but only drifted when Pak batted first, and there was very little if not no chance at all that they were going to restrict Aus to a chasable target.
Same with India W yesterday, putting up a target that the Windies didn't have the class to chase down. -
Some excellent stuff here @stuart-wallace-0.
The pre match stuff is excellent, and could be very profitable long term with consistency. I also don't fear liquidity, especially in the more major white ball events (top level internationals to things like the national T20 leagues).
My next question surrounds exit staking...
Purely for ease of numbers lets say you lay £100 @ 1.5, each tick up gives you £1 profit if you back for £100 but only on 1 side of the market, the other remains at £0.
However if you back at £99 in order to generate £1 on the other side your profit is then 50p on the other side (roughly and pre commission etc).Is that how you would do it? A 5 tick movement then gets either £5 or £2.50 each side?
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
Sorry guys, i'm just throwing my thoughts out there, forgive my rambling.
Thinking about automation, i wonder if putting 2 Lays on (1 on both teams) at 31 mins before the game start, and have a Trailing Stop/Loss of , say, 3 ticks on both, and a Tick gain of , say, 9 ticks before exiting the Trade (also with a Trailing Stop/Loss to stop any Trade going back to a negative position) on both?
That way, if you get the (now) expected drift by the batting side then that will just run for 9 ticks, and the Team that bowls will get caught by the Stop/Loss - resulting in a net 6 ticks profit. Which gives a net circa 50 profit on 1k lay.Am i talking bollox here ?
What do you think?EDIT: Have created a Bot for the India v Windies Women game tonight... got a Lay of both sides at 30 mins before Start, and got an Offset Bank at 10 Ticks each side with a Trailing Stop Loss of 3 ticks on both sides - lets see what happens.!
EDIT2: Ah ha, first 'problem'..... India won toss and decided to bat - therefore with the India Weighting effect, it will take a lot to get 10 ticks (ie from 1.09 to 1.19) drift. Never know there might be a wicket or 5. However, the good news is that Fairbot placed 2 Lays at 30 mins before start, so the first part is working.
EDIT3: Well, the Bot did its job, however, both sides kicked in with the Stop/Loss trade - which is not a total disaster...because of the India weighting, there is unlikely to be little drift - be interesting to see what happens on a 'normal' game.
These are the bets placed by Fairbot - not sure why i have duplication of the Trade, but i will sort that out. So, in this instance, the Stop Loss has been activated by Fairbot on both sides - so, this could happen if you dont have a swing of 10 ticks on one side.In simulation mode BTW
For what its worth I have had Fairbot doing the same thing to me with a strategy i created and ran in simulation today, the doubling of the bet seems to be a quirk......someone else had the same issue in the Fairbot thread a couple of days ago but when i tested it the bets didnt duplicate.....might be worth the classic log off and back on before you run the next trial
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 really like this mate.
How quickly after the toss does the market move? Is it a must watch live kind of reaction time?
Exactly what I was about to ask!
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@stuart-wallace-0 really like this mate.
How quickly after the toss does the market move? Is it a must watch live kind of reaction time?
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@matt-ayles im in at 1.11
So much for me waiting til Tests start !!
Nice lol.
For info, I've exited at 1.17 as I'm not confident in the chase and wanted to lock something in before i lost the green.
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Had a lay of Scorchers really early, about 5 overs into the match as they had already hit 1.1, and with so long to go it seemed a solid trade. Not over yet, but was hoping there was going to be a collapse which didn't happen.
Now it's a case of seeing if it matches before the wickets fall, otherwise I'll take a loss. -
Did ok today. Worked at scalping a few ticks laying at 1.04 and below. Small stakes but greens across 3 games which was good.
Some huge swings in a few games today too - saw them, considered it, didn't press the button. But I guess the watching, not losing anything and some discipline is a positive
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188 target 1 over less,if thunder batters take some time to settle on this pitch,there can be opportunity to make good trades,ball is also getting wet,
Will have eye on warner,davis & ross
Having a lay at 1.12
Loss there -
Big bash
Sixer over 165
Over 183 too
DOB styleDouble profit there,
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Exited NZ... 4 down for only 15 runs and don't seem to be capable of getting a run going along at just 1.5 per over. Not sure what's going on there, just NZ doing their best Kane impression despite him not playing?
Make that 15/5 after 10.3 overs... what on earth!
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@nathan-bennett i don't like it with Aus W batting first. Worked in the first game with Pak batting first, didn't get past 1.03 in the second match, and I'm not sure about last night as i didn't trade it.
Ind taken 3 very early wickets v NZ this morning, but I've had a lay in the hope they can recover. 1.4 exit be awesome.
Keeping an eye on BBL, no entry yet.
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BBL Hurricanes was good 1.1 action lastnight
See if the AUS W 1.01 LAY a good idea today when happens
Will be eyeing thisImagine if AUS chase again
Weirdly can see them not winning World Cup seems as tho only 4batsmen used in months -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 yes i agree. If there was a website that told you the DLS score should the match end right now you'd have an edge.
Alternatively I could answer my own question, and actually study how DLS is calculated, as it must be a set calculation that's applied. Then I could do it myself if games have any rain risk.
Every calculator I've found has Ireland winning by around 23 runs
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@stuart-wallace-0 yes i agree. If there was a website that told you the DLS score should the match end right now you'd have an edge.
Alternatively I could answer my own question, and actually study how DLS is calculated, as it must be a set calculation that's applied. Then I could do it myself if games have any rain risk.
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Heat 20 over line 158 over
Courtesy to 15 wides,profit there
162 is good score to defend IMO.
Will drip lay hobart if they started well
Drip laying at 1.55
Heat1.77 now,removing liability.
Nice green in this match.very satisfied how trades went according to pitch & condition. -
Barishal in BPL have scored 101 runs in the final 5 overs. Insane overs
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THUNDER 1.25 LAY
again
THUNDER 1.13 LAYsee how we go
1/3rd stake back 1.20
bang back on par trade lets go another pole dot balls ha
HELLO JOHN
NO WAY THAT DROP.. that was 1.6's if caught grrrr
taken some 1.48 thunder too bank
hoping proper fill up
lets go gaides odds on be huge -
I'll be laying THUNDER 1.10 ISH if happens early
may lay higher when spin on -
Missed one there, wasn't quick enough on the mark. Liked the lay of Sydney at 1.15 before the final over, and they're 1.32 now.
Never mind, not entering now, prices feel about right.
