BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
Hi Gavin,
The problem i seem to have is that i cant place 2 lays on a 2 team market - what happens is that (looking at a ladder) Green goes north for first Lay, but, bizarrely goes South for the next - almost like its a Back bet. Nobody seems to be able to tell me why, except Alistair Hamilton suggested this was normal. It works 'correctly' if i use the Match with Tie market (coz there are 3 possibles) but there is little liquidity.So, the only way i can think to do this is to have 2 accounts on Betfair, and 2 Fairbot accounts, and lay 1 on each account.
Its driving me crazy, especially as i now know (based on the number of games i have watched) there is a Scalp of at least 6 ticks available on every white ball game on the planet - all before a ball is bowled. So, you could have a Bank of 2k, and lay 1k on each team, and know that you will be guaranteed a 6 tick profit on every white ball game . Sounds good dunnit !?
Thats probably why i'm not giving up on this.!This is an example from todays IPL of what happens, first lay goes green north but 2nd goes green south !! totally bizarre - i wish someone could tell me why.
Proved by todays IPL game. I placed a manual Lay on MI and got normal results, then placed a LAY on RCB and saw Green go South and not normal North - so its clear you cant place 2 lays in a 2 'horse race' - however, i went back to the Match Odds including Tie market and managed to get both teams Layed and ladder behaved 'correctly' - however, liquidity is pants (30k against 3.6 million !). I also checked my Smarkets account, but , also, Liquidity is pants in comparison to Betfair.
So, looks like i am going to have to set up 2 Betfair accounts with my son being the other in order to be able to do what i want to do. (dont want to potentially have my Betfair account gubbed by having 2 accounts on same IP address etc.) -
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
Hi Gavin,
The problem i seem to have is that i cant place 2 lays on a 2 team market - what happens is that (looking at a ladder) Green goes north for first Lay, but, bizarrely goes South for the next - almost like its a Back bet. Nobody seems to be able to tell me why, except Alistair Hamilton suggested this was normal. It works 'correctly' if i use the Match with Tie market (coz there are 3 possibles) but there is little liquidity.So, the only way i can think to do this is to have 2 accounts on Betfair, and 2 Fairbot accounts, and lay 1 on each account.
Its driving me crazy, especially as i now know (based on the number of games i have watched) there is a Scalp of at least 6 ticks available on every white ball game on the planet - all before a ball is bowled. So, you could have a Bank of 2k, and lay 1k on each team, and know that you will be guaranteed a 6 tick profit on every white ball game . Sounds good dunnit !?
Thats probably why i'm not giving up on this.!This is an example from todays IPL of what happens, first lay goes green north but 2nd goes green south !! totally bizarre - i wish someone could tell me why.
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My site was down for here
Managed dead rubber pat back NZ winning G5
Something
Theory’s -
@stuart-wallace-0 6 ticks with 1k bank i think relates to 60 pounds. Might be wrong, but if it is 60 pounds then that virtually covers me for my desired daily profit , so 60 pounds x 30 equals 1800 pounds monthly! then additionally i could get my usual profit from Test matches LTD, and i could live happily forever after !!
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So my strategy of laying the favourite if they're bowling first in International shorter format matches seems very strong.
I lay the bowling side, then exit for 0 liability on the underdog and flip the liability to profit on the favourite when the odds double. Then i assess the situation at the innings break, and can either let it run for no risk or opt for a profit amount I'm happy with to "cash out" if i think the favourite will go on to lose.
Does not work on franchise cricket however... I'm working on alternatives for that.
Oh, and if the short price favourite bats first i just leave the game alone. I was making consistent losses trying to lay the fav when batting first.
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@gavin-rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
Hi Gavin,
The problem i seem to have is that i cant place 2 lays on a 2 team market - what happens is that (looking at a ladder) Green goes north for first Lay, but, bizarrely goes South for the next - almost like its a Back bet. Nobody seems to be able to tell me why, except Alistair Hamilton suggested this was normal. It works 'correctly' if i use the Match with Tie market (coz there are 3 possibles) but there is little liquidity.So, the only way i can think to do this is to have 2 accounts on Betfair, and 2 Fairbot accounts, and lay 1 on each account.
Its driving me crazy, especially as i now know (based on the number of games i have watched) there is a Scalp of at least 6 ticks available on every white ball game on the planet - all before a ball is bowled. So, you could have a Bank of 2k, and lay 1k on each team, and know that you will be guaranteed a 6 tick profit on every white ball game . Sounds good dunnit !?
Thats probably why i'm not giving up on this.! -
@stuart-wallace-0 loving the determination
What's the need for 2 accounts??
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 I'm hoping that if i can find a strategy that actually works on IPL it will work on all franchise cricket...
i know that the PreTossLay strategy works - just need to find a way to get the bot to work - think that the only way to get it to work is to have 2 Fairbot/Betfair accounts. Gonna ask my son to help.
It wont be a massive win, but something that will be guaranteed on all games - so, looking to use it on all 20/20,ODI,10 overs - anything other than than Tests. it would be a 4/5 tick gain on every match - so, a good way to get a scalp on each game before the game starts.
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PAK NZ G4 dead rubber
NZ will win this on theory
As always be looking for a nice low entry somewhere
If PAK bat first 1.2's low 1.3's prob be automatic for a swing
If NZ bat first ideally 1 down early for auto low odds lay of PAK for a swing
hopefully simple plan works ha then try read the game and put more green on the NZ sideDecent loss onto the next
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PAK NZ
Hopefully some more easy trading series been good
easy readableFELL asleep this game most parts but got a lil something
PAK SP was 1.5 ish went into 1.2's before NZ batted i had a lay with seeing how opening 10 overs went
great 80 run partnership but i was out of this trade at 1.6 PAK
something
think got to evens ish -
@matt-ayles missed this but thats a auto lay in my brain ha
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@stuart-wallace-0 I'm hoping that if i can find a strategy that actually works on IPL it will work on all franchise cricket...
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 this is why I'm testing so many thoughts, as it seems franchise cricket is wildly unpredictable... not something i want as a trader.
yes, i made a small profit in todays game, but IPL i have missed generally , in not being able to get the Pretosslay bot working but need to spend time looking at the 1.1 lay again - especially in first innings.
IPL is so volatile, that the only way i want to trade it is pre-game, 1.1 first half and maybe a bit of scalping between wickets (without any ball being bowled).
I am convinced there are opportunities there - just a matter of spending the time to get the Bots working properly. I was determined to get something working this season, but might now have to wait til next year. -
@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
1.09 Gujarat in first innings.
And lost the match... defended a tiny total.
yep, another one where i should stick to 1) 1.2 remove liabiility and then let rest run - especially in first innings.
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
1.09 Gujarat in first innings.
And lost the match... defended a tiny total.
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@stuart-wallace-0 this is why I'm testing so many thoughts, as it seems franchise cricket is wildly unpredictable... not something i want as a trader.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 1.7 now! I'm also testing exit points, to see which is the most profitable and how often it gets to those odds etc.
Very few so far have hit 1.1 first innings, but when they do it looks like gold.
yeah, in hindsight, should have looked at as a bowlers wicket - as 1.1 first innings, as you say, tend to be profitable. Went through 2. 0 , and fully expect them to win now.
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@stuart-wallace-0 1.7 now! I'm also testing exit points, to see which is the most profitable and how often it gets to those odds etc.
Very few so far have hit 1.1 first innings, but when they do it looks like gold.
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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
1.09 Gujarat in first innings.
I'm testing 1.1 strategy for the IPL amongst several other strategies... it's actually not looking very profitable at all unless it's hit in the first innings (which is very rare).
1.2 thank you !
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
1.09 Gujarat in first innings.
I'm testing 1.1 strategy for the IPL amongst several other strategies... it's actually not looking very profitable at all unless it's hit in the first innings (which is very rare).
