BTC Cricket Trading Thread

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a video from Martin that i seem to have passed by that has an interesting strategy re scalping

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@matt-ayles said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

What we need is cricket back testing software @Adam please!

I've been thinking the same, what you could do with that type of information.

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@matt-ayles I found Fairbot really simple after a couple of weeks, nothing major to learn, and also much cheaper than BetAngel pro which is what is needed to do Automation. Can run it in Simulation mode til youre comfortable.

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@stuart-wallace-0 watched the video you suggested. Certainly very interesting. Not got Fairbot myself and would take some learning looking at all those conditions etc, but might be the way to trade the shorter formats if a profitable strategy can be developed.

What we need is cricket back testing software @Adam please!

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Happy to test any other ideas if anyone can come up with anything.

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I have a testing spreadsheet setup and ready to go for the IPL. I'm looking at the 1.1 strategy in 1st or 2nd innings separately, I'm looking at odds flips (e.g. 1 team starts pre match at 1.6, does the other team ever touch that same number - like the lay both sides strat)... I'm also looking at that idea for run chases... do the odds of whoever is favourite at half way flip round..

Another one i have which is more wild is runs brackets. Looking at the average scores in the first innings of T20s at individual grounds, and trying to get matched on the runs markets on over the low point and under the high point... not sure on this one as might not match but will test it. Idea behind it is, if they match, guaranteed one will win to break even, and double your money if the runs falls inside the average score window.

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@stuart-wallace-0 yes i had a very good IPL last year but in hindsight it was horrible from a trading perspective. I was new to cricket and overstaked hugely... basically i was laying both sides at 1.89 with 10 points trying to make 1 point... yes it worked, think it landed in 68 of the 70 group matches. However huge losing 9 points if it was a blowout is ridiculous and unprofessional. Not a strategy i will be adopting this year.

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@joseph-henderson said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

I am very much a beginner with cricket trading but can see the huge potential and am keen to learn! Where do you get most of your statistics from, such as team batting averages, ground averages etc?

Best site for me is ESPN Cricinfo. You can find all kinds of stats in there. I have the app on my phone too, use it daily!

Joseph Henderson

I am very much a beginner with cricket trading but can see the huge potential and am keen to learn! Where do you get most of your statistics from, such as team batting averages, ground averages etc?

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@matt-ayles
Hi everyone, been offline for a few days with a technical/family issue ! - dont ask !

Hi Matt, interesting comments.

Agree, in that Test matches i find easy to make money on - think we have a good 'team' of people on here who provide thoughts and advice that make it a lot easier to profit.
However, as you say, white ball is totally different, and more of a challenge and more of a gamble.
I am concentrating at the moment with my 1.1 and TossLay strategies - trying to play around at the moment with trying to eliminate the 'normal' 1.1 Stop losses (ie when a team has already effectively won the game) by playing around with in-play timings (ie not to place 1.1 in last 20 per cent of game). So, i am trying to make some green as much as possible pre-game ending.

IPL - i vaguely remember you saying you had a profitable 2022 ? - so, would be interesting to see what strategies you have found profitable. IPL - I will be trading actively from 1st and 2nd April. Looking initially at scalping and automation strategies i would think.
One thing i have been thinking about is DRS - i wonder what happens for example, when they go up for DRS, when it seems quite obvious from the eye that a wicket has fallen or not.?
Also thinking of scalping after wicket taken, and then getting out before next ball is bowled.

I think it would be really interesting to collate some strategies from our collective brains and test them out in first week of IPL. The more we get our heads together the more likely we can come up with some successful strategies. Maybe post thoughts about the next days games every evening? I'm up for doing that.

BTW, have you checked out the Alistair Hamilton vid re 1.1 Lay ? Some really interesting i must admitconcepts in there, just wondering if you agree with the 50% at 1.2, 25% at 1.3 and then letting the rest run?

Nathan Bennett

Amazingly in the end after a few overs WI SA result seemed obvious and chasing 250+ kinda funny

Wish all like that

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One of those occasions it goes wrong, but this is going to be the highest chase in T20 history by a long way.

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Could have laid both teams at 1.2 here. This is crazy batting.

Nathan Bennett

Prob be inclined to lay SA 1.10 ish with 20% green for a swing

Small 1.12 lay sa green up 1.6+

Great game this has been

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@nathan-bennett said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:

WI SA
T20
Laying 1.18 WI
See what SA do first 4-6 overs in chase assess

25% stake back 1.32

Perfect this

I'm now backing Windies, as (statistically) they aren't going to chase this down. Hopefully a big green incoming.

Nathan Bennett

WI SA
T20
Laying 1.18 WI
See what SA do first 4-6 overs in chase assess

25% stake back 1.32

All red out 1.7 WI

If SA get to 1.4 ish favs prob green up

What a fill up this is only 3 overs into chase

All green now and peanut on the tie

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This Charles innings is seriously impressive.

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@joseph-henderson the way I've been treating international cricket is assessing the likelihood that the team batting first hit lots of runs (based on ground averages etc).

Then, like the T20 going on right now, see if the team who are favourites are bowling first, against a team quite capable of finding boundaries.

Today, SA were favourites, yet the Windies chased 131 in just 11 overs yesterday, and are known for their hitting. Statistically it was more likely that the Windies hit runs than SA bowl them out cheaply in this format. Therefore a lay of SA was absolutely the right call.

It's not perfect, it doesn't work every time, but i follow statistics... what's more likely? Then if it goes wrong, just exit and move on.

Joseph Henderson

I have been trying the lay both teams at 1.40 on some T20 matches and having some good success. Does anyone have any guidance/tips on match selection rather than just selecting all/any T20 matches? Cheers

Nathan Bennett

Wasn’t able to post
But again shorter formats
The old angle spin to win
IND chasing got very low before spin came on
#happensalot